[Vision2020] Can Clinton Win?(Forgetting something)
Tom Hansen
thansen@moscow.com
Sun, 4 Jan 2004 15:47:27 -0800
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Polls. Shmolls. The only one that truly counts happens on November 2nd.
When was that last time a poll accurately reflected the outcome of a general
federal election?
Which brings up another problem. I think that Idaho should drop the
party-line primary and switch to an open primary like Washington. An open
primary reflects more accurately the potential "leanings" of the general
election. I have registered Republican for primary elections to vote for
the Dan Quayles of the world, hoping that the Democratic candidate would be
opposing him/her on general election day. Thus making it easier for a
Democratic victory on general election day.
Any thoughts (mature ones)?
Take care,
Tom Hansen
Moscow, Idaho
-----Original Message-----
From: vision2020-admin@moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]On
Behalf Of Tim Lohrmann
Sent: Sunday, January 04, 2004 3:19 PM
To: Joan Opyr
Cc: vision2020@moscow.com
Subject: [Vision2020] Can Clinton Win?(Forgetting something)
Joan,
I agree that polls can swing rapidly and that any of the Democrat
party possibles could win next November. 11 months is an eternity in
politics as the old cliche' goes.
There is a crucial differenc between 2004 and 1992 though.
And it's one that must be considered in any comparison of the
respective re-election campaigns of Bush the elder and W.
That's our buddy Ross Perot.
As you'll remember, Perot threw his Stetson into the ring on a deficit
reduciton platform and received 19% of the vote his first time around in
'92.
The vast majority of Perot votes came from Republicans and Republican
leaning moderates irritated by Bush-the-first's breaking of his famous
no-new-taxes pledge.
In other words they came directly out of Bush's hide in the General.
This enabled Billy and Hilly to claim victory in that election with only 43%
of the votes.
There might be a strong third party/independent candidacy this year.
But at this point the only one on the horizon is Ralph Nader possibly
running as an independent. (He has already said another run as a Green isn't
for him.)
And of course if Ralph takes votes away from anyone, it willl be from
Dr. Dean or whoever else eventually emerges from the current Democrat
slugfest.
Funny how so many people have forgotten about ole Ross. A lot of
people really liked him there for a while. And none more than Billy C.
After all, if no Perot--it's very likely there'd never have been any
such thing as a President Clinton.
TL
Joan Opyr <auntiestablishment@hotmail.com> wrote:
No, not Hillary. Bill. Below is a link to a little piece from 1992,
written prior to the election in which Bill Clinton, who was 20 points
behind the first George Bush in the June polls that year, went on to win
in
November.
http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm
Just a little reminder that pundits know nothing. And a change of
subject
from religion, theonomy, world domination, etc.
Joan Opyr/Auntie Establishment
PS: Rose is *not* thinking that she'd like someone to explain to her why
homosexuality is immoral. She's thinking about how to get the car up our
half-mile unplowed driveway. So am I. Out of coffee. Out of toilet
paper.
Out of cigarettes. You don't have to be a psychic to read our minds.
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Polls. =20
Shmolls. The only one that truly counts happens on November =
2nd. =20
When was that last time a poll accurately reflected the outcome of a =
general=20
federal election?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Which brings up=20
another problem. I think that Idaho should drop the party-line =
primary and=20
switch to an open primary like Washington. An open primary =
reflects more=20
accurately the potential "leanings" of the general election. I =
have=20
registered Republican for primary elections to vote for the Dan Quayles =
of the=20
world, hoping that the Democratic candidate would be opposing him/her on =
general=20
election day. Thus making it easier for a Democratic victory on =
general=20
election day.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>Any =
thoughts=20
(mature ones)?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Take=20
care,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff size=3D2>Tom =
Hansen</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D871283923-04012004><FONT color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Moscow,=20
Idaho</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px =
solid">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B> =
vision2020-admin@moscow.com=20
[mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tim=20
Lohrmann<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, January 04, 2004 3:19 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B> Joan=20
Opyr<BR><B>Cc:</B> vision2020@moscow.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> =
[Vision2020] Can=20
Clinton Win?(Forgetting something)<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>Joan, </DIV>
<DIV> I agree that polls can swing rapidly and that =
any of=20
the Democrat party possibles <EM>could </EM>win next November. 11 =
months is an=20
eternity in politics as the old cliche' goes.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> There is a crucial differenc between 2004 and 1992=20
though.</DIV>
<DIV> And it's one that must be considered =
in any=20
comparison of the respective re-election campaigns of Bush =
the elder=20
and W.</DIV>
<DIV> That's our buddy Ross Perot.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> As you'll remember, Perot threw =
his Stetson=20
into the ring on a deficit reduciton platform and received 19% of =
the=20
vote his first time around in '92. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> The vast majority of Perot votes came =
from=20
Republicans and Republican leaning moderates irritated by=20
Bush-the-first's breaking of his famous no-new-taxes pledge.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> In other words they came directly out of =
Bush's hide=20
in the General. This enabled Billy and Hilly to claim victory=20
in that election with only 43% of the votes.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> There might be a strong third =
party/independent=20
candidacy this year. But at this point the only one on the horizon=20
is Ralph Nader possibly running as an independent. (He =
has=20
already said another run as a Green isn't for him.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> And of course if Ralph takes votes =
away from=20
anyone, it willl be from Dr. Dean or whoever else eventually emerges =
from the=20
current Democrat slugfest. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> Funny how so many people have forgotten =
about ole=20
Ross. A lot of people really liked him there for a while. =
And none=20
more than Billy C. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> After all, if no Perot--it's very likely there'd =
never have=20
been any such thing as a President Clinton.</DIV>
<DIV> TL</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> <BR><BR><B><I>Joan Opyr=20
<auntiestablishment@hotmail.com></I></B> wrote:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE class=3Dreplbq=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px =
solid">No,=20
not Hillary. Bill. Below is a link to a little piece from 1992, =
<BR>written=20
prior to the election in which Bill Clinton, who was 20 points =
<BR>behind=20
the first George Bush in the June polls that year, went on to win in =
=
<BR>November.<BR><BR>http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm<BR=
><BR>Just=20
a little reminder that pundits know nothing. And a change of subject =
<BR>from religion, theonomy, world domination, etc.<BR><BR>Joan =
Opyr/Auntie=20
Establishment<BR><BR>PS: Rose is *not* thinking that she'd like =
someone to=20
explain to her why <BR>homosexuality is immoral. She's thinking =
about how to=20
get the car up our <BR>half-mile unplowed driveway. So am I. Out of =
coffee.=20
Out of toilet paper. <BR>Out of cigarettes. You don't have to be a =
psychic=20
to read our=20
=
minds.<BR><BR>___________________________________________________________=
______<BR>Tired=20
of slow downloads? Compare online! deals from your local high-speed=20
<BR>providers now.=20
=
https://broadband.msn.com<BR><BR>________________________________________=
_____________<BR>List=20
services made available by First Step Internet, <BR>serving the =
communities=20
of the Palouse since 1994. <BR>http://www.fsr.net=20
=
<BR>mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com<BR>/////////////////////////////////////=
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<P>
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