[Vision2020] Iraq on the brink of civil war?

Sunil Ramalingam sunilramalingam@hotmail.com
Mon, 05 Apr 2004 09:27:20 -0700


<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV class=RTE>
<P>Please explain how Iraq was connected to the events of 9/11.&nbsp; Please tell me if you think that our takeover of Iraqi assets and the parting out of their economy is an effort to bring them 'freedom.'&nbsp; Perhaps you think it is.&nbsp; I suspect that Iraqis watching the pet council we have chosen to 'rule' them are quite capable of noticing that their assets are being taken over by outsiders guarded by mercenaries.&nbsp; I'm sure they've realized that there will be no pullout of our troops after the June 'turnover.'</P>
<P>This does not justify last week's atrocities, but we should be done with the folly of pretending we are serving Iraqi interests.&nbsp; We are helping ourselves, not them.&nbsp; If the Shiites as a group decide not to wait on the sidelines, things will get much uglier.</P>
<P>Sunil<BR></P></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Pat Kraut" &lt;pkraut@moscow.com&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: "vision2020" &lt;vision2020@moscow.com&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Iraq on the brink of civil war? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Mon, 5 Apr 2004 08:54:49 -0700 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;How about...We are a bunch of cowards who don't mind genocide in Iraq as 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;long as it doesn't touch us??&nbsp;&nbsp;Oh excuse me, it already did kill 3000 in New 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;York! Did you forget that? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;PK 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;----- Original Message ----- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: "Rodna Hansen" &lt;rodna@moscow.com&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: "Joan Opyr" &lt;auntiestablishment@hotmail.com&gt;; "Vision2020 Moscow" 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;&lt;vision2020@moscow.com&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sent: Monday, April 05, 2004 6:17 AM 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Iraq on the brink of civil war? 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; I agree, Joan. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; And, according to today's Spokesman-Review, anoother eight soldiers were 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;killed 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; as a result of Shiite rioting. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Does anybody here remember (from the Johnson administration) the slogan, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;"Hey! 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Hey!&nbsp;&nbsp;LBJ.&nbsp;&nbsp;How many children did you kill today?" 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Contest:&nbsp;&nbsp;Let's see how many slogans we can develop concerning George Bush 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Iraq. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Rodna Hansen 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; At 09:19 PM 4/4/2004 -0700, Joan Opyr wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Is Iraq slipping into civil war?&nbsp;&nbsp;It's certainly beginning to look that 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;way. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; A long-dreaded second front opened this past weekend; according to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;another 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; piece in the NY Times, not a single checkpoint manned by the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;much-touted, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; U.S.-trained Iraqi policemen held.&nbsp;&nbsp;Next stop?&nbsp;&nbsp;The Kurds in the north 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; declare their independence, opening front #3. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The June 30th handover to the Iraqi Civil Authority will probably take 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;place 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; as scheduled, but it will be a farce.&nbsp;&nbsp;We're in this for the long, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;bloody, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; demoralizing haul. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Joan Opyr/Auntie Establishment 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Forwarding from washingtonpost.com: 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Protests Unleashed by Cleric Mark a New Front in War 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; By Anthony Shadid&nbsp;&nbsp;and Sewell Chan 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;&nbsp;&nbsp; BAGHDAD, April 4 -- By unleashing mass demonstrations and attacks in 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Baghdad and southern Iraq on Sunday, a young, militant cleric has 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;realized 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the greatest fear of the U.S.-led administration since the occupation of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Iraq 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; began a year ago: a Shiite Muslim uprising. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Fighting with U.S. troops raged into the night in a Baghdad slum, and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; hospitals reportedly took in dozens of casualties. But even before 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;sunset, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; there was a sense across the capital that a yearlong test of wills 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;between 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the American occupation and supporters of Moqtada Sadr had turned 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;decisive, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; and its implications reverberated through Iraq. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The unrest signaled that the U.S. military faces armed opposition on two 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; fronts: in scarred Sunni towns such as Fallujah and, as of Sunday, in a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Shiite-dominated region of the country that had remained largely 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;acquiescent, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; if uneasy about the U.S. role. If put down forcefully, a Shiite 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;uprising -- 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; infused with religious imagery, and symbols drawn from Iraq's colonial 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;past 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; and the current Palestinian conflict -- could achieve a momentum of its 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;own. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; During the last year, Sadr has appealed to poor and disenfranchised 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Shiites, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the majority of Iraq's population, with a relentless anti-occupation 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;message. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; A junior cleric, the 30-year-old's authority is far overshadowed by 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Grand 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the country's leading religious figure. Sadr and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;his 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; followers remain distinctly unpopular in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;where 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the more established clergy hold sway. But he commands a street 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;following in 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Baghdad and the long-neglected cities of the south, and his militia of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; several thousand men has grown in strength and influence. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Hours into Sunday's violence, Sadr publicly called for an end&nbsp;&nbsp;to the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; protests, and it was unclear whether his followers would persist in a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;fight 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; with an overwhelmingly more powerful U.S. military. But the calculus of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Iraq's politics had already appeared to shift. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; "Just give the order, Moqtada, and we'll repeat the 1920 revolution," 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; supporters chanted in Baghdad, a reference to a Shiite-led uprising 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;against 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the British occupation that has grown in political mythology to serve as 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Iraq's founding act. Across town, outside the headquarters of the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;U.S.-led 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; administration, Sheik Hazm Aaraji warned, "The people are prepared for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; martyrdom." 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The unrest Sunday followed a series of calibrated moves by&nbsp;&nbsp;each side 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;that 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; appeared to be&nbsp;&nbsp;designed to test the resolve of the other. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The latest round of tension began March 28, with the U.S. closure of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sadr's 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; al-Hawza newspaper. With an estimated circulation of 10,000, the weekly 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;was 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; mainly marketed at mosques loyal to Sadr's followers and, for months, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;had 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; printed articles that U.S. officials deemed inflammatory. The closure 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;sent 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; thousands of protesters into the streets, many of them marching in 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;military 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; cadence in Baghdad and Najaf and wearing the black uniforms of Sadr's 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; militia, which is known as the Mahdi Army. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Supporters of Sadr suggested that a show of force would discourage U.S. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; officials from broadening the crackdown. In his Friday sermon, Sadr 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;appeared 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; to call for attacks on U.S. forces, crossing a line that he had 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;carefully 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; avoided for months. Citing what he called attacks by "the occupiers," he 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;told 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; followers, "Be on the utmost readiness and strike them where you meet 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;them." 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Early Saturday morning, one of Sadr's top aides, Mustafa Yaqoubi, a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;familiar 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; face in Sadr's office in Najaf, was detained. U.S. officials said he was 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;held 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; along with 12 people for the killing of&nbsp;&nbsp;a moderate Shiite cleric from 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;one of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Iraq's most prestigious religious families. The cleric, Abdul-Majid 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Khoei, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; was hacked to death on April 10, 2003, a day after the fall of Baghdad. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;U.S. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; officials said the warrants were issued months ago and offered no 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;explanation 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; about why they were not executed until Saturday. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The detention of Yaqoubi prompted protests by thousands on Sunday across 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; southern Iraq. As the fighting surged in Baghdad and the southern cities 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Najaf and Amarah, Sadr issued a statement calling on his followers to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;stop 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the protests, saying they were futile. But he added: "Intimidate your 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;enemy. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; . . . It is not possible to remain silent before their violations." 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; U.S. officials insisted Sunday that they had not decided whether to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;crack 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; down on Sadr's group. But L. Paul Bremer, the civilian administrator of 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Iraq, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; suggested that the violence would have consequences. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; "A group of people in Najaf have crossed the line," Bremer said at a 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;news 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; conference. "This will not be tolerated. This will not be tolerated by 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; coalition, this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi people, and this will 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;not 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; be tolerated by the Iraqi security forces." 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; For months, occupation authorities have been divided over how to respond 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Sadr's challenge. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Since last summer, U.S. authorities had tried to persuade Iraq's more 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;senior 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; and moderate clergy to rein in Sadr, whom one senior official described 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;at 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the time as "a populist, a critic and a rabble-rouser." "We're watching 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;him 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; and some of the big [ayatollahs] are watching us, and we're both hoping 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; other does something," the official said. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Part of the reservation was motivated by the fear of a Shiite backlash. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Since 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the start of the occupation, the desire to maintain Shiite support -- or 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;at 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; least acquiescence -- has served as one of the administration's key 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; objectives. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; At least in public, Sadr's profile had appeared to fade in recent 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;months, as 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Sistani played a more assertive role in Iraqi politics and criticized 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;various 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; U.S. plans for Iraq's political transition Given Sistani's stature among 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; country's Shiites, Sadr had refrained from direct criticism of him. But 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;in 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; private, his followers express resentment of Sistani's influence. They 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;view 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; their movement as Arab and nationalist, and endorse a far greater role 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the clergy in politics and social affairs than Sistani has espoused. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; In part, the rivalry dates back to Sadr's father, Mohammed Sadiq Sadr, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;who 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; competed with Sistani for influence and was assassinated in 1999. Sadr 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;has 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; claimed the mantle of his revered father. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Sadr kept a lower profile after a clash in October between U.S. troops 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; his followers in Baghdad, but his movement's militia grew in size and 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; influence. Numbering just 500 in August and often ridiculed for its 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;ragtag 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; quality, its membership has since grown to as many as 10,000 men, armed 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;with 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; rocket-propelled grenades, mortars and light weapons. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; With security deteriorating in the south, the militia has vied for 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;authority 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; with the larger Badr Organization, a militia operated by a leading 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Shiite 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Other, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;smaller 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; militias belong to the Dawa party, another Shiite group with a long 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;history 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; in Iraq, and a mystical cleric named Sarkhi Hassani. One of Sistani's 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; representatives, Abdel-Mehdi Salami, a ranking Shiite cleric, is 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;believed to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; be organizing armed followers in Karbala, another&nbsp;&nbsp;city sacred to 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Shiites. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The rising influence of the Mahdi Army, along with accusations of their 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; intimidation, death threats and illegal detentions, has alarmed U.S. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; officials, who fear it will compete for power after the U.S. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;administration 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; of Iraq ends June 30. In recent weeks, pressure has grown within the 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; occupation administration to crack down on militias, particularly 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Sadr's, 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; before they gain more power. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; "We were so patient and now you can see the result," said Abu Heidar 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Ghalib 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Garawi, a leader of the Mahdi Army in Kufa, a city near Najaf. "You can 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;see 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the rage of the people. What do you think? Will they [occupation 
<DIV></DIV>&gt;authorities] 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; respond with oppression or will they respond to the demands?" 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Correspondent Karl Vick in Kufa contributed to this report. 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
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