[Vision2020] Clark Democratic front runner according to new poll, 43-47% against Bush

Donovan Arnold donovanarnold@hotmail.com
Sat, 20 Sep 2003 20:05:40 -0700


<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Tim and Ted,</P>
<P>I think you are both right to a degree. Most the Dems are in it to the end, or at least want to be. After Iowa, Braun and Gephardt are out. After New Hampshire Kerry is out. After South Carolina Edwards cannot win anymore so he is out. Lieberman will be out after Michigan because he cannot win a single primary. That leaves Dean and Clark. Clark has a better chance of beating Bush, so they will turn to Clark.</P></DIV>
<P>The money part is partially correct. The McCain/Feingold campaign finance bill is hurting the Democrats because they rely heavily on donations from Labor Unions and other liberal organizations. However, the Supreme Court is hearing the Constitutionality of this in relation to the 1st Amendment and is expected to rule before January 04'. It is expected that it will be knocked down by most experts. </P>
<DIV></DIV>
<P>However, the Democrats will not be able to match the Republicans in money. But they can make up for that in what we call votes :). The Democrats will have grown 4% more of the population between 2000 and 2004. Bush cannot win Florida this coming election. So he is going to need to spend huge sums of money in Oregon, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois to try and get some electoral votes back. He will also lose Arkansas and maybe another Southern state. It will not be easy for Bush&nbsp;unless if Dean wins the nomination. Most of the states in the Midwest hate Bush, and job losses have been huge in this area going overseas. Bush needs an addition $100-150 million to make up for lost electoral votes in areas where he is unpopular to be competitive in the popular vote and electoral vote.</P>
<DIV></DIV>
<P>So with the repeal of the McCain/Feingold Bill Democrats can raise $300-400 million to Bush's $450-500 million making the odds pretty even for 04'.</P>
<DIV></DIV>
<P>Donovan J Arnold<BR><BR></P>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Tim Lohrmann <TIMLOHR@YAHOO.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: Ted Moffett <TED_MOFFETT@HOTMAIL.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;CC: vision2020@moscow.com 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Clark Democratic front runner according to new poll, 43-47% against Bush 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 17:26:24 -0700 (PDT) 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Ted, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; You ask whether the Demos "want: to fight amongst 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;each other or win the White House. Well, the way I see 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;things shaking up this year is that they definitely 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;want to win, but that the infighting is inevitable. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;While all candidates want to win, they themselves are 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;in positions where they HAVE to win and win this year. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Look at the candidates' situations. Little Dick 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Gephardt is likely in his last round of seeking the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;White House. He gave up his leadership position to 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;win. He's in it for the win--it's now or never and 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;he'll do whatever it takes. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Amplify that for Edwards. He's not even going to 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;run for re-election so he can devote his all to the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Pres. campaign. He won't give up easily. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Dean has plenty of money and an ego to match. He 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;won't be easily persuaded to give up now that he has 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;tasted frontrunner status. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Lieberman and Kerry are Senate stalwarts with some 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;big money behind them. Lieberman apparently believes 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the nomination is rightfully his after the close 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;election in '00. Neither of them will take easily to 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;just throwing in the towel without being forced to do 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;so. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; And Sharpton will likely come up with some 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;surprising numbers of votes in the South and some 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;equally surprising pronouncements about the Party's 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;attitude toward Black voters if he makes a good 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;showing in a few states. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; So, I can't imagine that these guys with quite a 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;lot to lose won't beat up on each other when it comes 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;down to put-up/shut-up time. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Of course if one candidate emerges quickly and the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;nominee is apparent early in March, things could 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;change rapidly with at least some mending of fences. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;That's the question, whether with ten candidates, this 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;will happen at all. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; As for the pooling of funds, these guys are going 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;to spend all they possibley can. The losers will need 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;everything on hand to pay off debts and etc. So, I 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;seriously doubt that such a pooling plan would ever 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;play out. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; I'm no expert on current campaign financing law 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;either. But from what I've read, the Demos. are being 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;hurt by McCain/Feingold much worse that the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Republicans. This is because the GOP is much more 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;successful in gaining many small contributions from 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;many contributors. The Demos, on the other hand have 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;historically relied on bigger checks from fewer 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;donors. So, with the Supremes currently hearing 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;arguments on McCain/Feingold, the disposition of that 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;case could affect the election to some extent. At 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;least concerning the amount that can be spent FOR a 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;candidate by an independent PAC or other commmittee. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; TL 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;--- Ted Moffett <TED_MOFFETT@HOTMAIL.COM>wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Tim- 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Your points are excellent, but it was the head to 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; head results of the poll 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; regarding Bush vs Clark that I found most 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; interesting. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; There are other V2020 posters who have downplayed 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Clark's chances. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Of course it is too early to project what will 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; happen to the dems or what 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; their chances are against Bush. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; If the economy and jobs picks up dramatically, Bush 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; looks better. If not... 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; If Iraq stabilizes Bush looks better, if not... 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Do the democrats want to win the White House or 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; fight amongst themselves? 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; They need to pick one or the other pretty soon if 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; they really hope to win, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; don't you think? 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; This is dreaming, but is it possible the dems could 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; pool their campaign 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; money somehow behind one candidate? I am not sure 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; what the current law is 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; regarding campaign financing on this issue. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Fundraising will be critical and we know Bush wins 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; this battle over the dems 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; for sure. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; Ted 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;From: Tim Lohrmann <TIMLOHR@YAHOO.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;To: Ted Moffett <TED_MOFFETT@HOTMAIL.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;CC: vision2020@moscow.com 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Clark Democratic front 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; runner according to new 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;poll, 43-47% against Bush 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 13:11:00 -0700 (PDT) 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Ted, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; I'm not a Clark nay-sayer or yea-sayer. My 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; point is 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;just that the Clark polls don't mean too much at 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; this 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;point. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; And many factors may lead to this poll being 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; his 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;political peak. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Clark is going to have several very 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; well-financed 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Demo opponents who are going to be the most 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; prominent 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;nay-sayers. Dean has raised a lot of money, so has 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Kerry. If they need to make hay at Clark's expense 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;don't think they won't turn out professionally 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;negative campaign ads against Clark. And as many as 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;they need to. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Also, when the primaries turn to the South, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;Edwards, who has announced he will not run for 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;re-election to the Senate will be spending all that 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;trial lawyer money anyway he needs to. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The bottom line is that Clark, if he indeed is 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; a 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;frontrunner right now, will be targeted mercilessly 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;and examined proctologically from here on out. Will 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; he 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;be up to it? 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Possibly, but it's not a given by any stretch. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; TL 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt;--- Ted Moffett <TED_MOFFETT@HOTMAIL.COM>wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Donovan et. al. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Like I posted earlier, the Republicans do NOT 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; want 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; to run Bush against 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Clark. The Clark naysayers on this list have 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; some 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; explaining to do if you 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; assume the results of the poll you posted have 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; some 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; validity. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Look for a juicy smear campaign to trash Clark 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; being 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; launched by 2004. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Consult your corporate owned media for hyped 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; sensationalized updates. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Ted 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;From: "Donovan Arnold" 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; <DONOVANARNOLD@HOTMAIL.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;To: vision2020@moscow.com 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;Subject: [Vision2020] Clark Democratic front 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; runner 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; according to new poll, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;43-47% against Bush 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt;Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 11:21:16 -0700 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
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