[Vision2020] Clark Democratic front runner according to new poll, 43-47% against Bush
Tim Lohrmann
timlohr@yahoo.com
Sat, 20 Sep 2003 17:26:24 -0700 (PDT)
Ted,
You ask whether the Demos "want: to fight amongst
each other or win the White House. Well, the way I see
things shaking up this year is that they definitely
want to win, but that the infighting is inevitable.
While all candidates want to win, they themselves are
in positions where they HAVE to win and win this year.
Look at the candidates' situations. Little Dick
Gephardt is likely in his last round of seeking the
White House. He gave up his leadership position to
win. He's in it for the win--it's now or never and
he'll do whatever it takes.
Amplify that for Edwards. He's not even going to
run for re-election so he can devote his all to the
Pres. campaign. He won't give up easily.
Dean has plenty of money and an ego to match. He
won't be easily persuaded to give up now that he has
tasted frontrunner status.
Lieberman and Kerry are Senate stalwarts with some
big money behind them. Lieberman apparently believes
the nomination is rightfully his after the close
election in '00. Neither of them will take easily to
just throwing in the towel without being forced to do
so.
And Sharpton will likely come up with some
surprising numbers of votes in the South and some
equally surprising pronouncements about the Party's
attitude toward Black voters if he makes a good
showing in a few states.
So, I can't imagine that these guys with quite a
lot to lose won't beat up on each other when it comes
down to put-up/shut-up time.
Of course if one candidate emerges quickly and the
nominee is apparent early in March, things could
change rapidly with at least some mending of fences.
That's the question, whether with ten candidates, this
will happen at all.
As for the pooling of funds, these guys are going
to spend all they possibley can. The losers will need
everything on hand to pay off debts and etc. So, I
seriously doubt that such a pooling plan would ever
play out.
I'm no expert on current campaign financing law
either. But from what I've read, the Demos. are being
hurt by McCain/Feingold much worse that the
Republicans. This is because the GOP is much more
successful in gaining many small contributions from
many contributors. The Demos, on the other hand have
historically relied on bigger checks from fewer
donors. So, with the Supremes currently hearing
arguments on McCain/Feingold, the disposition of that
case could affect the election to some extent. At
least concerning the amount that can be spent FOR a
candidate by an independent PAC or other commmittee.
TL
--- Ted Moffett <ted_moffett@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> Tim-
>
> Your points are excellent, but it was the head to
> head results of the poll
> regarding Bush vs Clark that I found most
> interesting.
>
> There are other V2020 posters who have downplayed
> Clark's chances.
>
> Of course it is too early to project what will
> happen to the dems or what
> their chances are against Bush.
> If the economy and jobs picks up dramatically, Bush
> looks better. If not...
> If Iraq stabilizes Bush looks better, if not...
>
> Do the democrats want to win the White House or
> fight amongst themselves?
> They need to pick one or the other pretty soon if
> they really hope to win,
> don't you think?
>
> This is dreaming, but is it possible the dems could
> pool their campaign
> money somehow behind one candidate? I am not sure
> what the current law is
> regarding campaign financing on this issue.
>
> Fundraising will be critical and we know Bush wins
> this battle over the dems
> for sure.
>
> Ted
>
>
> >From: Tim Lohrmann <timlohr@yahoo.com>
> >To: Ted Moffett <ted_moffett@hotmail.com>
> >CC: vision2020@moscow.com
> >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Clark Democratic front
> runner according to new
> >poll, 43-47% against Bush
> >Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 13:11:00 -0700 (PDT)
> >
> >Ted,
> > I'm not a Clark nay-sayer or yea-sayer. My
> point is
> >just that the Clark polls don't mean too much at
> this
> >point.
> > And many factors may lead to this poll being
> his
> >political peak.
> > Clark is going to have several very
> well-financed
> >Demo opponents who are going to be the most
> prominent
> >nay-sayers. Dean has raised a lot of money, so has
> >Kerry. If they need to make hay at Clark's expense
> >don't think they won't turn out professionally
> >negative campaign ads against Clark. And as many as
> >they need to.
> > Also, when the primaries turn to the South,
> >Edwards, who has announced he will not run for
> >re-election to the Senate will be spending all that
> >trial lawyer money anyway he needs to.
> > The bottom line is that Clark, if he indeed is
> a
> >frontrunner right now, will be targeted mercilessly
> >and examined proctologically from here on out. Will
> he
> >be up to it?
> > Possibly, but it's not a given by any stretch.
> > TL
> >
> >
> >
> >--- Ted Moffett <ted_moffett@hotmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > Donovan et. al.
> > >
> > > Like I posted earlier, the Republicans do NOT
> want
> > > to run Bush against
> > > Clark. The Clark naysayers on this list have
> some
> > > explaining to do if you
> > > assume the results of the poll you posted have
> some
> > > validity.
> > >
> > > Look for a juicy smear campaign to trash Clark
> being
> > > launched by 2004.
> > > Consult your corporate owned media for hyped
> > > sensationalized updates.
> > >
> > > Ted
> > >
> > >
> > > >From: "Donovan Arnold"
> <donovanarnold@hotmail.com>
> > > >To: vision2020@moscow.com
> > > >Subject: [Vision2020] Clark Democratic front
> runner
> > > according to new poll,
> > > >43-47% against Bush
> > > >Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 11:21:16 -0700
> > > >
> > >
> > >
>
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