[Vision2020] Clark Democratic front runner according to new poll, 43-47% against Bush

Donovan Arnold donovanarnold@hotmail.com
Sat, 20 Sep 2003 12:58:45 -0700


<html><div style='background-color:'><DIV>
<P>Tim, </P>
<P>I am not going to disagree with your opinion because opinions are never wrong :).</P></DIV>
<P>But I do think you are not looking at all the facts carefully enough.</P>
<DIV></DIV>
<P>"Joe Lieberman had one for quite a while before the good General entered the fray."</P>
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<P>Actually,&nbsp;Lieberman&nbsp;was out of the top spot well before Clark announced. Lieberman was only ahead because he had the most name recognition being VP for Gore. As others became known he dropped in the polls. The opposite is true with Clark. He has very little name recognition. As the other candidates are better known than he, this cannot hurt him. The more people that learn of Clark, the more support he gets.&nbsp;Also, the more people get to know Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Kucinich, and Gephardt, the more Clark is also supported :).&nbsp;</P>
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<P>"But the problem is the individual state primaries and caucuses. Those are the polls that matter at this point. And leading those means organization, or as Clark might say 'boots on the ground.'"</P>
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<P>I agree Iowa and New Hampshire will be a challenge. However, Clark has the second largest organization. We are second in Yahoo! Groups, Second in Meet-ups, second in everything in terms of people on the ground. I know that the media acts like Draft Clark is just 5 people with a website, but look around, we have hundreds of websites, and are present in over 590 cities from coast to coast. </P>
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<P>Dean has dropped 10 points in the last month in NH and Iowa and the trend continues. Clark is moving up in the polls. You also have to take into account about 30% have not made up their minds yet and are very well aware of the other 9 candidates. The candidates that do have support rank below 20% and most supporters are willing to change their candidate.</P>
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<P>"And that they've sewn up many, many endorsements and commitments from key organizers in both Iowa and NH."</P>
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<P>Actually, Clark has more endorsements&nbsp;than Dean or Kerry. He even has more US Congressional endorsements than Gephardt and Lieberman who are congressional leaders. He also will have the endorsements of the Clintons.</P>
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<P>"But Clinton was a politico practically from birth. Clark has never been in a position to be examined microscopically in a national or even statewide media limelight."</P>
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<P>Well, I think you are right in the fact that Clark needs to talk like he is walking on egg shells. Most people are not use to their words being&nbsp;under a microscope and they can be easily taken out of context for media headline reasons. But in terms of the politicos, the Clintons are backing Clark, as well as most of&nbsp;Clinton's campaign staff and Gore's are already&nbsp;in the Clark camp. Some are now even defecting to Clark from other campaigns, like&nbsp;Kerry's. &nbsp;&nbsp;</P>
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<P>"If Clark can quit committing gaffes like saying on Thursday that he would have probably voted for the Iraqi war and reversing himself completely yesterday, he might have a chance."</P>
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<P>He didn't reverse his position. He just worded it in a way that the media took it out of context.&nbsp;People in the Draft Clark movement are pissed about this, we understand his position. Clark is not against the removal of Saddam. He was against the handling and timing of the&nbsp;war, not the&nbsp;war itself.</P>
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<P>So when asked if he would have voted for the resolution at the time, how would he have known that Bush was going to go to war when he did, and mishandle it unless&nbsp;he had a crystal ball? Clark's error was&nbsp;his wording and&nbsp;falling into the trap of the badly worded question.&nbsp;If Clark knew that Bush was going to&nbsp;prioritize over&nbsp;terror the war in Iraqi&nbsp;and handle it the way he did, he would have voted no. But since he didn't know that before the war, how could he not vote yes. I don't know if I explained that correctly, but I think it would make more sense if you read the actual wording of the&nbsp;war resolution. </P>
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<P>"Clark is way too politically inexperienced to say he'll be able to maintain any bump he caught from his announcement this week."</P>
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<P>Hehe, you don't get 4 stars by being politically inept. 4 Star Generals&nbsp;&nbsp;are often the most political astute people on the planet, that is how they get there. There is huge difference between a Major and General. Clark spent many years in DC and many politicians know him, eat lunch with him, and are friends with him. </P>
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<P>Clark just needs to keep his mouth shut until he has perfectly worded his responses to be clear and direct. When he doesn't the media jumps on it and will twist it anyway they can to make a headline.</P>
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<P>Donovan J Arnold</P>
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<P>&nbsp;&nbsp;<BR><BR></P>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;From: Tim Lohrmann <TIMLOHR@YAHOO.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;To: Donovan Arnold <DONOVANARNOLD@HOTMAIL.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;CC: vision2020@moscow.com 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Clark Democratic front runner according to new poll, 43-47% against Bush 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 11:54:46 -0700 (PDT) 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Donovan, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; A lead in a national poll is nice. Joe Lieberman 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;had one for quite a while before the good General 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;entered the fray. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; But the problem is the individual stateprimaries 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;and caucuses. Those are the polls that matter at this 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;point. And leading those means organization, or as 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Clark might say "boots on the ground." 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; The key question is can Clark overcome the fact 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;that Dean et al have made as many as 50 trips to Iowa 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;over the past year or so. And that they've sewn up 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;many, many endorsements and committments from key 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;organizers in both Iowa and NH. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Also, with Dean and Kerry from neighboring states, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;they'll be hard to beat there. I guess if Clark can 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;make a decent show in both those states he could still 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;be OK. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; Clinton did. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; But Clinton was a politico practically from birth. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Clark has never been in a position to be examined 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;microscopically in a national or even statewide media 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;limelight. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; If Clark can quit committing gaffes like saying on 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Thursday that he would have probably voted for the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Iraqi war and reversing himself completely yesterday, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;he might have a chance. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; But, even if with most of Clinton's former campaign 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;pros in his organization, Clark is way too poltically 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;inexperienced to say he'll be able to maintain any 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;bump he caught from his announcment this week. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; It's way to early for that. There are just way too 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;many "ifs" at this point. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; TL 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;--- Donovan Arnold <DONOVANARNOLD@HOTMAIL.COM>wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;--------------------------------- 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Newsweek Poll puts Clark in the lead in the Democratic 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;race and is in a statisical dead heat with Bush. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;43%-47% with a plus or minus margin of 3% in a head to 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;head match against Bush. Dean only get 38% against 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Bush. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Read: http://www.msnbc.com/news/969441.asp?0cv=KB10 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Donovan J Arnold 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;From: Tim Lohrmann 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;To: vision2020@moscow.com 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;Subject: Re: [Vision2020] local media 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 10:30:41 -0700 (PDT) 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;--- Tim Lohrmann wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2003 10:23:21 -0700 (PDT) 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; From: Tim Lohrmann 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Subject: Re: [Vision2020] local media 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; To: bill london 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Bill, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; I believe comparing the Palouse coverage(or 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; anything else)from the LEWISTON MORNING TRIBUNE'S 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Saturday edition to the Daily News' Saturday 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;edition 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; is really comparing kiwis to kumquats. This 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;edition 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; comparison is likely the ONLY one in which the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;Daily 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; News comes out ahead. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; The DAILY NEWS Sat. edition is actually their 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Weekend edition, the biggest and most expensive 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; product they produce. Then on Sunday they take the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; day off. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; On the other hand, the LEWISTON MORNING TRIBUNE 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Saturday edition is often the skimpiest paper the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Morning Tribune puts out. It's produced while many 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; on the staff are working on THEIR feature product 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;that comes out on Sunday morning. I'm sure the LMT 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt;Sun. edition will cover the story you mention. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; That said however, even though I've been reading 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the LMT for a while, that I like a newspaper in 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; early morning, and that I like the LMT's editorial 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; page and focus on letters to the editor, I would 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; gladly buy a WEEKEND ONLY subscription to the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;DAILY 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; NEWS. I've never understood why they don't offer 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; such a thing. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; Tim L. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; --- bill london wrote: 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; We do not often get the chance to directly 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;compare 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; the timeliness of the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; reporting in the two local newspapers--the Daily 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; News and Lewiston 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Tribune. One is an afternoon paper that benefits 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; from getting to report 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; on events that break during the morning, and the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; other is a morning 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; paper that gets all the afternoon breaks. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; The exception is for news that is announced on 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Friday afternoon. Both 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; papers print on Friday night for Saturday AM 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; delivery. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; And in the latest comparison, the Daily News 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt;won. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Today's Daily News included two in-depth stories 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; by 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Ted McDonough on the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; successful environmental appeal of the Highway 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt;95 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Tribune did not mention it at all. 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; It sure seems to me that Palouse coverage by the 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Tribune is going 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; downhill, and jumpstarted by the new publisher, 
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; the 
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<DIV></DIV>&gt; &gt; &gt; &gt; Daily News is 
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