[Vision2020] Statistics
Luke
lukenieuwsma@softhome.net
Sat, 17 May 2003 21:14:48 -0700
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Interestingly enough, in Switzerland teenage kids compete with adults in =
regular firearms tournaments with hefty guns, and crime is extremely =
low. Back in 1993, there was not a single armed robbery in Bern, the =
capital. Even the kids have guns, but they're taught how to use them at =
an early age... and how not to use them. In America, parents don't =
bother - they just get trigger locks.
BTW, Hitler bypassed the Swiss in WWII because... they all had guns.
-Resource was Congressional Debates over gun control
Cordially,
Luke Nieuwsma
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Donovan Arnold=20
To: johnmoss@moscow.com ; vision2020@moscow.com=20
Sent: Friday, May 16, 2003 2:52 AM
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Statistics
Good point John, however,
Most people don't even know what statistics are, and don't even know =
what it means anyway. If you don't understand what methods used are, the =
margin or error, the level of significance, the non response rate, if it =
was voluntary or involuntary survey, if the alpha level was .5 .1. or =
.01., the wording of the questions. For all I know they used a Tcalc for =
a Zcalc test. Wouldn't that mess up the results, is easy to do too. Even =
if they did understand this, you would still need to evaluate other =
statistical data because statistics are wrong 1% to10% of the time. =
Which means, statistically, 1-10 out of a hundred statistics are not =
correct. :) Furthermore, people that do statistically analysis on their =
own business or organizations usually know what makes them sound good so =
they arrange the test to be designed to give them these results. Many of =
the large companies that were busted for fraud regarding profits did =
this. They would over calculate costs, and under calculate! revenue of =
sales. Then when it came to report the value of the shares, you under =
calculate the costs and over calculate revenue of sales. This provided =
higher earnings then predicted and boom, people buy your stock you sell, =
and your rich :). So backed or not backed, statistics don't mean a thing =
to people that understand them and are not given all the finite details =
of how the calculations were made. But your right, they sound damned =
good don't they! :) By the way, the statistics I used, which I miss read =
because of the wording of the statistic(stated this in my other =
email)was from the book called "Where We Stand" Written by Michael Wolf =
1992. 10,000 are murdered from guns, not 5,000. Thanks!
Btw, I was not calling=20
Donovan Arnold
>From: "John Moss"=20
>To:=20
>Subject: [Vision2020] Statistics=20
>Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 22:50:51 -0700=20
>=20
>Citizens and mathematicians,=20
>=20
>In a recent e-mail to Mr. Arnold, Mr. Nieuwsma asked Mr. Arnold to =
back up his statement that "5,000 people are killed every year in this =
country by guns, and most of them were accidents by people that were =
careless and irresponsible." This is a fair request to make.=20
>=20
>Over the last week, we have seen a plethera of appeals to statistics =
to prove a point. Mr. Courtney states that MSD's student-to-teacher =
ratio is 15.22, and then Mr. Kaag states that "very few teachers in this =
district are teaching 15.22 students." And Mr. Arnold presents us a =
statistic about careless deaths caused by guns, and then Mr. Nieuwsma =
presents us statisics of guns used in self-defense.=20
>=20
>If possible, when appealing to a statistic on this forum, could you =
please try to state where the statistic came from?=20
>=20
>As my earlier quip noted, anyone can make up statistics that sound =
good. And, yes, other statistics are valid. So when using statisics, =
please do your best to validate them.=20
>=20
>Thank you all,=20
>=20
>John Moss=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Interestingly enough, in Switzerland =
teenage kids=20
compete with adults in regular firearms tournaments with hefty guns, and =
crime=20
is extremely low. Back in 1993, there was not a single armed robbery in =
Bern,=20
the capital. Even the kids have guns, but they're taught how to use them =
at an=20
early age... and how not to use them. In America, parents don't bother - =
they=20
just get trigger locks.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>BTW, </FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Hitler bypassed=20
the Swiss in WWII because... they all had guns.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>-Resource was Congressional Debates =
over gun=20
control</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Cordially,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Luke Nieuwsma</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddonovanarnold@hotmail.com=20
href=3D"mailto:donovanarnold@hotmail.com">Donovan Arnold</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Djohnmoss@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:johnmoss@moscow.com">johnmoss@moscow.com</A> ; <A=20
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, May 16, 2003 2:52 =
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020]=20
Statistics</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<P>Good point John, however,</P>
<P>Most people don't even know what statistics are, and don't even =
know what=20
it means anyway. If you don't understand what methods used are, the =
margin or=20
error, the level of significance, the non response rate, if it was =
voluntary=20
or involuntary survey, if the alpha level was .5 .1. or .01., the =
wording of=20
the questions. For all I know they used a Tcalc for a Zcalc=20
test. Wouldn't that mess up the results, is easy to do too. Even =
if they=20
did understand this, you would still need to evaluate other =
statistical data=20
because statistics are wrong 1% to10% of the time. Which means, =
statistically,=20
1-10 out of a hundred statistics are not correct. :) Furthermore, =
people that=20
do statistically analysis on their own business or organizations =
usually know=20
what makes them sound good so they arrange the test to be designed to =
give=20
them these results. Many of the large companies that were busted for =
fraud=20
regarding profits did this. They would over calculate costs, and under =
calculate! revenue of sales. Then when it came to report the =
value of the=20
shares, you under calculate the costs and over calculate revenue of =
sales.=20
This provided higher earnings then predicted and boom, people buy your =
stock=20
you sell, and your rich :). So backed or not backed, statistics don't =
mean a=20
thing to people that understand them and are not given all the finite =
details=20
of how the calculations were made. But your right, they sound damned =
good=20
don't they! :) By the way, the statistics I used, which I miss read =
because of=20
the wording of the statistic(stated this in my other email)was from =
the book=20
called "Where We Stand" Written by Michael Wolf 1992. 10,000 are =
murdered from=20
guns, not 5,000. Thanks!</P>
<P>Btw, I was not calling </P></DIV>
<P>Donovan Arnold<BR><BR></P>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>From: "John Moss" <JOHNMOSS@MOSCOW.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>To: <VISION2020@MOSCOW.COM>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>Subject: [Vision2020] Statistics=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>Date: Thu, 15 May 2003 22:50:51 -0700=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>Citizens and mathematicians,=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>In a recent e-mail to Mr. Arnold, Mr. Nieuwsma asked =
Mr. Arnold=20
to back up his statement that "5,000 people are killed every year in =
this=20
country by guns, and most of them were accidents by people that were =
careless=20
and irresponsible." This is a fair request to make.=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>Over the last week, we have seen a plethera of appeals =
to=20
statistics to prove a point. Mr. Courtney states that MSD's =
student-to-teacher=20
ratio is 15.22, and then Mr. Kaag states that "very few teachers in =
this=20
district are teaching 15.22 students." And Mr. Arnold presents us a =
statistic=20
about careless deaths caused by guns, and then Mr. Nieuwsma presents =
us=20
statisics of guns used in self-defense.=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>If possible, when appealing to a statistic on this =
forum, could=20
you please try to state where the statistic came from?=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>As my earlier quip noted, anyone can make up statistics =
that=20
sound good. And, yes, other statistics are valid. So when using =
statisics,=20
please do your best to validate them.=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>Thank you all,=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>>John Moss=20
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV></DIV></DIV><BR clear=3Dall>
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