[Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population is shrink ing and greying-with grim consequences

[Dale Courtney]

	The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate,
predicts that 
- The world's population will *increase* from just over 6 billion in 2000 to
8.9 billion by 2050. 
- During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries that
should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to *fall* by 6%, from 482m
to 454m. 

	For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is
dramatic. 
- By 2050 the number of Italians should fall from 57.5m in 2000 to around
45m
- Spain's population should droop from 40m to 37m. 
- Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find itself
with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent
projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: "Even assuming (no doubt
unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population
would decline to about 50m by 2100."

	Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the
economic and political consequences are alarming. 
- In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for every 100
people of working age. 
- By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners for
every 100 workers; 
- In Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected to be
one-to-one. 

	Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current
tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar to fund
the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The cost is
already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that
average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages into
the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.

	Either Europe must effect a radical cutback in pensions and health
care for seniors, or Europe must import scores of millions of internationals
(mostly Arabs and Africans) to care for the elderly and pay the taxes to
sustain their welfare states.

	The UN's statistics department
(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/default.htm) and population division
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) have information on world
demographic trends. 
	See also the French Institute of International Relations
(http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher). 
	The above numbers and trends were reported in the 17 July edition of
The Economist. 

Best,
Dale Courtney
Moscow, Idaho