[Vision2020] Bombing hospitals
Dale Courtney
dale@courtneys.us
Thu, 13 Feb 2003 06:08:01 -0800
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Evan wrote:=20
>We've all seen Saddams "human sheild" tactics, for example placing =
anti-
>aircraft sites atop hospitals and schools.
>
>Could some of you ex-military guys could discuss how we go about =
handling these=20
>situations?
Evan,=20
Well, you asked! :) =20
There are four scenarios that are being discussed publicly.=20
a.. Desert Storm-II scenario:=20
a.. Strategy: This would essentially be a replay of the 1991 Gulf =
War, but on a smaller scale. The air campaign would be more intense than =
last time round, and ground troops would be deployed faster and in =
smaller numbers. The main invasion would be launched from Kuwait, while =
warplanes based in neighboring countries would mount air strikes.=20
b.. Forces: Up to 250,000 troops, possibly including 25,000 from UK.
c.. Drawbacks: The presence of a large Western force in the region =
may alarm other Arab states. The long build-up needed to assemble such a =
force could give Saddam Hussein time to mount a pre-emptive attack, =
possibly using chemical or biological weapons. It may also be too slow =
for some in the US administration.
b.. Inside-Out scenario:=20
a.. Strategy: This plan, also known as "Baghdad first", involves a =
strike at the heart of Saddam Hussein's regime, aimed at triggering a =
collapse from within. Key installations in Baghdad and the president's =
hometown Tikrit would be seized in an attack that would aim to keep as =
much of an element of surprise as possible. It would combine focused air =
strikes with a rapid advance of ground forces to Baghdad. . Bridges and =
other infrastructure would be avoided to allow invading forces and =
defecting Iraqi troops to move easily through the country.=20
b.. Forces: Estimates vary from 25,000 to 100,000 troops.=20
c.. Drawbacks: Fighting would be likely to centre in and around =
Baghdad. The Iraqi leader reportedly wants to encourage fighting in =
cities, as casualties are likely to be high, and Iraqi troops - =
particularly the Special Republican Guard - have an advantage in urban =
warfare.
c.. Rolling War scenario:=20
a.. Strategy: This tactic would see large numbers of troops seize =
and establish bridgeheads in the north, west and south of Iraq. These =
zones would be used to rally local dissident groups, with the aim of =
exerting severe pressure on Saddam Hussein's regime and hastening its =
collapse. . This scenario would have similarities to the US campaign in =
Afghanistan, and would in theory avoid a direct assault on Baghdad.
b.. Allies: The Kurds in the north (whose forces may number about =
85,000) and Shia Muslims in the south.=20
c.. Drawbacks: Significant numbers of troops - about 250,000 =
American and 15,000 British soldiers - would be needed. The Iraqi =
opposition is also weak and splintered, and the Iraqi Government =
strongly entrenched in the areas of Iraq that it controls. It is not =
clear whether the Kurds and Shias would support such a plan. If they =
did, they might also demand their own state as a reward, risking the =
break-up of Iraq.
d.. Coup scenario:
a.. Strategy: Another suggested option is a surprise military coup =
backed financially and tactically by the CIA. Key installations in =
Baghdad would be seized, while a US air campaign could attack military =
targets such as the Republican Guard armored divisions around Baghdad.=20
b.. Drawbacks: Several failed coup attempts by disaffected military =
officers since 1991 have been met with bloody retribution. It may be =
difficult to persuade dissidents to risk their lives again. . However, =
an element of internal dissent - possibly culminating in a coup - is =
likely to play a part if the US invades, and it becomes clear that it is =
going to win.=20
Likely, it will be a combination of these four scenarios along with =
knocking out all of Hussain's warfighting capability with EMP weapons =
(Electromagnetic Pulses) on the first attack.=20
Dale Courtney
Moscow, Idaho
LCDR, USN (Ret)
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<DIV>Evan wrote: </DIV>
<DIV>>We've all seen Saddams "human sheild" tactics, for example =
placing=20
anti-<BR>>aircraft sites atop hospitals and =
schools.<BR>><BR>>Could=20
some of you ex-military guys could discuss how we go about handling =
these=20
<BR>>situations?<BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Evan, </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Well, you asked! :) </DIV>
<DIV>There are four scenarios that are being discussed <U>publicly</U>. =
</DIV>
<UL>
<LI><STRONG>Desert Storm-II scenario</STRONG>: </LI>
<UL>
<LI>Strategy: This would essentially be a replay of the 1991 Gulf =
War, but=20
on a smaller scale. The air campaign would be more intense than last =
time=20
round, and ground troops would be deployed faster and in smaller =
numbers.=20
The main invasion would be launched from Kuwait, while warplanes =
based in=20
neighboring countries would mount air strikes.=20
<LI>Forces: Up to 250,000 troops, possibly including 25,000 from UK.
<LI>Drawbacks: The presence of a large Western force in the region =
may alarm=20
other Arab states. The long build-up needed to assemble such a force =
could=20
give Saddam Hussein time to mount a pre-emptive attack, possibly =
using=20
chemical or biological weapons. It may also be too slow for some in =
the US=20
administration.</LI></UL>
<LI><STRONG>Inside-Out scenario</STRONG>: </LI>
<UL>
<LI>Strategy: This plan, also known as =93Baghdad first=94, involves =
a strike at=20
the heart of Saddam Hussein=92s regime, aimed at triggering a =
collapse from=20
within. Key installations in Baghdad and the president's hometown =
Tikrit=20
would be seized in an attack that would aim to keep as much of an =
element of=20
surprise as possible. It would combine focused air strikes with a =
rapid=20
advance of ground forces to Baghdad. =95 Bridges and other =
infrastructure=20
would be avoided to allow invading forces and defecting Iraqi troops =
to move=20
easily through the country.=20
<LI>Forces: Estimates vary from 25,000 to 100,000 troops.=20
<LI>Drawbacks: Fighting would be likely to centre in and around =
Baghdad. The=20
Iraqi leader reportedly wants to encourage fighting in cities, as =
casualties=20
are likely to be high, and Iraqi troops =96 particularly the Special =
Republican Guard =96 have an advantage in urban warfare.</LI></UL>
<LI><STRONG>Rolling War scenario</STRONG>: </LI>
<UL>
<LI>Strategy: This tactic would see large numbers of troops seize =
and=20
establish bridgeheads in the north, west and south of Iraq. These =
zones=20
would be used to rally local dissident groups, with the aim of =
exerting=20
severe pressure on Saddam Hussein=92s regime and hastening its =
collapse. =95=20
This scenario would have similarities to the US campaign in =
Afghanistan, and=20
would in theory avoid a direct assault on Baghdad.
<LI>Allies: The Kurds in the north (whose forces may number about =
85,000)=20
and Shia Muslims in the south.=20
<LI>Drawbacks: Significant numbers of troops - about 250,000 =
American and=20
15,000 British soldiers - would be needed. The Iraqi opposition is =
also weak=20
and splintered, and the Iraqi Government strongly entrenched in the =
areas of=20
Iraq that it controls. It is not clear whether the Kurds and Shias =
would=20
support such a plan. If they did, they might also demand their own =
state as=20
a reward, risking <SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>the =
break-up of=20
Iraq.</FONT></SPAN></LI></UL>
<LI><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3><STRONG>Coup=20
scenario</STRONG>:</FONT></SPAN></LI>
<UL>
<LI><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>Strategy: Another =
suggested=20
option is a surprise military coup backed financially and tactically =
by the=20
CIA. Key installations in Baghdad would be seized, while a US air =
campaign=20
could attack military targets such as the Republican Guard armored =
divisions=20
around Baghdad. </FONT></SPAN>
<LI><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>Drawbacks: Several =
failed coup=20
attempts by disaffected military officers since 1991 have been met =
with=20
bloody retribution. It may be difficult to persuade dissidents to =
risk their=20
lives again. =95 However, an element of internal dissent =96 =
possibly=20
culminating in a coup - is likely to play a part if the US invades, =
and it=20
becomes clear that it is going to win. </FONT></SPAN></LI></UL></UL>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>Likely, it will be a =
combination=20
of these four scenarios along with knocking out all of Hussain's=20
warfighting capability with EMP weapons (Electromagnetic Pulses) on the =
first=20
attack. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>Dale =
Courtney</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>Moscow, =
Idaho</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 57%"><FONT size=3D3>LCDR, USN=20
(Ret)</FONT></SPAN></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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