[Vision2020] Fwd: Earth Policy News - Record Temps Shrinking World Grain Harvest

[Tom Trail]

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>From: "Reah Janise Kauffman" <rjkauffman@earth-policy.org>
>To: <public@earth-policy.org>
>Subject: Earth Policy News - Record Temps Shrinking World Grain Harvest
>
>Copyright 2003 Earth Policy Institute

  Visionaries:  Here is a report that should be of interest to the public
as well as local farmers.

Rep. Tom Trail

>
>
>RECORD TEMPERATURES SHRINKING WORLD GRAIN HARVEST
>Monthly Drop Equal to One Half of U.S. Wheat Harvest
>http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update27.htm
>
>Lester R. Brown
>
>On August 12 at 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its
>monthly estimate of the world grain harvest, reporting a 32-million-ton drop
>from the July estimate. When grain futures markets opened later in the
>morning, prices of wheat, rice, and corn jumped.
>
>This 32-million-ton drop, equal to half the U.S. wheat harvest, was
>concentrated in Europe where record-high temperatures have withered crops.
>The affected region stretched from the United Kingdom and France in the west
>through the Ukraine in the east. The searing heat damaged crops in virtually
>every country in Europe.
>
>The soaring temperatures of the past several weeks rewrote the record book.
>On August 10, the temperature in London reached 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38
>degrees Celsius)--the first triple-digit reading on record in the United
>Kingdom. France had 11 consecutive days in August with temperatures above 35
>degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit). In Italy, temperatures reached 41
>degrees Celsius (105 degrees Fahrenheit).
>
>The heat wave in Europe started in early summer when Switzerland, situated
>in the heart of Europe, experienced the hottest June since recordkeeping
>began 140 years ago. In July the heat wave spread across the rest of Europe.
>
>Crops suffered the most in Eastern Europe, which is harvesting its smallest
>wheat crop in 30 years. In the Ukraine, the wheat crop, already severely
>damaged by winter kill, was reduced further by the heat, plummeting from 21
>million tons last year to 5 million tons this year. As a result, the
>Ukraine, a leading wheat exporter last year, has been forced to import wheat
>as bread prices threaten to spiral out of control. Romania, which was
>particularly hard hit by heat and drought, is expecting to harvest the
>smallest wheat crop on record. The Czech Republic is expecting its poorest
>grain harvest in 25 years.
>
>The prolonged heat wave, which persisted through mid August, also reduced
>the German grain harvest. The German Farmers Union reports that in
>southeastern Germany some farmers may lose half of their grain crop.
>
>This reduced estimate of the world grain harvest will expand the world grain
>shortfall this year to 82 million tons. With projected world grain
>consumption of 1,912 million tons exceeding production of 1,830 million tons
>by 4 percent, the world is engaged in a massive drawdown of grain stocks.
>(See data at http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update27_data.htm.) With
>this year's drawdown, world grain stocks have dropped to the lowest level
>since the early 1970s. When world grain stocks dropped to a dangerously low
>level in 1973, world prices of wheat and rice doubled.
>
>As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels climb higher each year in an
>unbroken ascent, they are creating a greenhouse effect, raising the earth's
>temperature. Over the last quarter century the earth's average temperature
>has risen 0.7 degrees Celsius or more than 1 degree Fahrenheit.
>
>As temperatures rise, crop-withering heat waves are becoming more and more
>common. Last year the grain harvests in India and the United States were hit
>hard by high temperatures and drought. This year Europe is bearing the
>brunt.
>
>During this life-threatening heat wave Europeans may have felt that the
>temperature could not rise much higher, but the Intergovernmental Panel on
>Climate Change (IPCC), a group of some 1,500 of the world's leading climate
>scientists, is projecting a rise in average global temperature of somewhere
>between 2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius) during
>this century if we continue with business-as-usual energy policies.
>
>Even if the earth's temperature increases only a few degrees, as in the low
>end of the IPCC projections, we will likely see heat waves far more intense
>than anything we can easily imagine. If rising temperatures shrink harvests
>and drive up food prices, consumer pressure to reduce the use of fossil
>fuels will intensify. Indeed, rising food prices could be the first global
>economic indicator to signal the need for a fundamental shift in energy
>policy, one that would move the world toward renewable energy sources and
>away from climate-disrupting fossil fuels.
>
>#      #      #
>
>For more information on the effect of rising temperatures on crop yields,
>see Chapter 1 of Plan B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization
>in Trouble, which is online for free downloading at
>http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/index.htm. The book will be published on
>September 4, 2003, after which time the entire contents will be available
>online.
>
>#      #      #
>
>Additional data and information sources www.earth-policy.org
>or contact jlarsen(at)earth-policy.org
>
>For reprint permissions contact rjkauffman(at)earth-policy.org
>
>
>
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-- 
Dr. Tom Trail
International Trails
1375 Mt. View Rd.
Moscow, Id. 83843
Tel:  (208) 882-6077
Fax:  (208) 882-0896
e mail ttrail@moscow.com