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<div>Interesting analysis, but now I can't unread the phrase 'bigfoot-themed pornography.' :( <br></div><div><br></div><div>debbie<br></div><div><br></div>
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On Thursday, August 9, 2018, 7:00:27 PM PDT, Ted Moffett <starbliss@gmail.com> wrote:
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<div><div id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040"><div dir="ltr"><div>Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com is one of the more credible Internet sources </div><div>for political analysis, or so I have gathered. Compare to Alex Jones' Infowars.com: </div><div>A good example of the corrosive influence of the Internet promoting outrageous conspiracy </div><div>propaganda, which influences far too many people. </div><div>-------------------------------------------</div><div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div><div><br></div><div>-------------------------------------------</div><div><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/</a><span></span></div><div><br></div><div>Aug. 9, 2018, at 7:05 AM <div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-header"><h1 class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-article-title ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-article-title-single ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040entry-title"> Is Chris Collins Toast? </h1><h2 class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-article-subtitle">How much scandals hurt candidates running for re-election.</h2></div><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-header-metadata-and-share-wrap"><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-header-metadata-wrap"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-byline ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-vcard">By <a title="" class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-author ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-url ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">Nate Silver</font></a></p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic">Filed under <a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-term" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2018-election/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">2018 Election</font></a></p><span><p>In the era of President Trump, it’s become fashionable to presume that politicians can do whatever they like and get away with it. But if recent elections to Congress are any guide, scandals do have large and measurable effects. So when U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, the Republican from New York’s 27th Congressional District, was <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rep-chris-collins-arrested-insider-trading-charges/story?id=57108196" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">arrested on insider trading charges on Wednesday morning</font></a>, it took a seat that had looked to be fairly safe for Republicans and put it into the competitive category.</p><p>I’m going to be fairly circumspect in this article because I’m knee-deep in finalizing our House model, and I don’t want to scoop our own forecast. But one of the things we evaluated in designing that model is the electoral effects of scandals, based on the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ksBLxRR3GCZd33IvhkcNqqBd5K8HwlWC7YuAkVmS1lg/edit#gid=0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">data set of scandals</font></a> put together by my colleague Nathaniel Rakich.<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-1"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">1</font></sup></a><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"></span></span></p><p>The definition of what constitutes a scandal is inherently subjective, but Nathaniel’s data set defines it as an accusation of objective wrongdoing (e.g., breaking the law, having an affair), as opposed to a subjective controversy, such as when a candidate makes an outlandish comment or deviates from social norms. As a benchmark, Rep. Jim Jordan’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/us/politics/jim-jordan-ohio-state-sexual-abuse.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">allegedly lying about his knowledge of incidents of sexual assault</font></a> toward wrestlers at Ohio State University while he was the coach there constitutes a scandal while candidate <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/7/30/17629580/riggleman-cockburn-bigfoot-erotica" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">Denver Riggleman’s alleged penchant for bigfoot-themed pornography</font></a> would not. Collins’s arrest by the FBI is unambiguously a scandal.</p><p></p><p>Below is a list of scandal-plagued incumbents since 1998 who made it to the general election and faced an opponent from the opposite party.<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-2" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-2"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">2</font></sup></a><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"></span></span></p><p>That is, I exclude cases such as in Louisiana or California where there was a runoff between two candidates of the same party.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> I’ve compared each incumbent’s actual margin of victory or defeat against a projected margin based on a “fundamentals” model that accounts for: (i) the incumbent’s previous victory margin,<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-3" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-3"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">3</font></sup></a></p><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><p>Previous victory margin is adjusted for the national political environment at the time. It’s also adjusted to account for whether the candidate was already an incumbent or instead won an open-seat race or defeated an incumbent.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> (ii) the partisan lean of the district,<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-4" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-4"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">4</font></sup></a></p><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><p>Partisan lean is a measure of how blue or red a state or district is in a neutral political environment; more on this in a moment.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> (iii) the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">generic ballot</font></a> at the time of the election, (iv) <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">congressional approval ratings</font></a> at the time of the election (which are a good proxy for the overall mood toward incumbents), and (v) the incumbent’s congressional voting record (representatives who break with their party more often overperform on Election Day). This is a slightly pared-down version of what our House model will look at, but it should be a fairly robust and reliable model.<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-5" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-5"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">5</font></sup></a></p><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p><p>I deliberately excluded fundraising data and the opponent’s political experience level, even though our House model will use them, because they could plausibly be affected by the scandal — a scandal-tinged incumbent will draw more experienced opposition and may have trouble raising money.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><br></p></span><p></p><h5 class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-title">How much do scandals hurt incumbents?</h5><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-subtitle">It depends on how competitive the district is</p><table class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-viz ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-full"><thead><tr><th class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text" colspan="1">Year</th><th class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text" colspan="1">District</th><th class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text" colspan="1">Incumbent</th><th class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;" colspan="1">Projected Margin Of Victory</th><th class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;" colspan="1">Actual Margin of Victory or Defeat</th><th class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;" colspan="1">Net Effect Of Scandal</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">1998</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">GA-6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Newt Gingrich</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">31.2</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">41.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">10.2</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">1998</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">ID-1</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Helen Chenoweth</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">23.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">10.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-12.9</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">1998</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">IL-6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Henry J. Hyde</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">32.6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">37.2</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">4.7</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">1998</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">IN-6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Dan Burton</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">51.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">55.3</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">3.9</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2000</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">GA-7</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Bob Barr</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">21.0</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">10.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-10.5</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2004</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">OH-14</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Steven C. LaTourette</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">34.0</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">25.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-8.5</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">2006</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">MI-14</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">John Conyers, Jr.</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">78.1</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">70.6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-7.5</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2006</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">PA-10</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Donald Sherwood</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">25.1</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-5.9</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-31.0</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2008</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">FL-16</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Tim Mahoney</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">7.6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-20.2</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-27.8</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">2008</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">NY-15</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Charles B. Rangel</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">82.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">81.3</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-1.2</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2010</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">MA-6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">John F. Tierney</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">22.3</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">13.9</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-8.4</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2012</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">FL-26</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">David Rivera</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">12.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-10.6</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-23.2</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2012</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">NY-11</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Michael G. Grimm</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">10.3</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">5.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-4.9</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">2012</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">TN-4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Scott DesJarlais</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">24.8</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">11.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-13.3</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2016</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">NC-9</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Robert Pittenger</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">27.2</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">16.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-10.9</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">2016</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">NH-1</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight">Frank C. Guinta</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">5.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-1.3</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-highlight" style="width:15%;">-6.8</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text" style="border-bottom-color:black;border-bottom-width:1px;border-bottom-style:solid;">2016</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text" style="border-bottom-color:black;border-bottom-width:1px;border-bottom-style:solid;">TX-27</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text" style="border-bottom-color:black;border-bottom-width:1px;border-bottom-style:solid;">Blake Farenthold</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;border-bottom-color:black;border-bottom-width:1px;border-bottom-style:solid;">28.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;border-bottom-color:black;border-bottom-width:1px;border-bottom-style:solid;">23.4</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;border-bottom-color:black;border-bottom-width:1px;border-bottom-style:solid;">-5.1</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text"></td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text"></td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Overall average</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">30.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">21.5</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-9.0</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text"></td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text"></td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Districts less competitive than NY-27</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">45.7</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">42.0</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-3.7</td></tr><tr><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text"></td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text"></td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-text">Districts more competitive than NY-27</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">19.8</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">7.1</td><td class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-number" style="width:15%;">-12.7</td></tr></tbody></table><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-notes">Shaded districts were more competitive than NY-27 based on their partisan lean.</p><p>On average, the scandal-ridden incumbents … won re-election by 21.5 percentage points! But that’s quite a bit worse than their <i>projected</i> margin of victory, which was 30.5 percentage points. The net effect of a scandal is about 9 points, therefore. (This finding is reasonably consistent with <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-effect-of-sex-scandals/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">previous research on the topic</font></a>.) Fourteen of the 17 incumbents underperformed their projection by at least some amount, and the three exceptions came a relatively long time ago, in 1998. (There’s no evidence of the effect of scandals decreasing in recent elections; if anything, it’s increased slightly over the course of the data.)</p><p>Moreover, the effect of scandals is potentially greater in competitive districts, where the other party has an opportunity to mobilize a real alternative. Let’s use New York’s 27th Congressional District as a dividing line, for instance. It has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R +22, meaning that it’s 22 points more Republican than the country as a whole based on its voting in recent presidential and state legislative elections.<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-6" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-6"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">6</font></sup></a><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"></span></span></p><p>In a new twist this year, the version of partisan lean we’re using for the House model accounts for partisanship in state legislative elections as well as in presidential elections; more about that in the near future.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> That type of district is ordinarily quite safe, but is just on the fringe of what could become competitive if everything breaks right for the opposing party — for example, in an election in a wave year against a candidate who just got arrested by the FBI. In districts less competitive than NY-27, scandals cost the incumbents only 4 percentage points, on average. But in districts that were as competitive or more competitive than NY-27, candidates with scandal issues underperformed their fundamentals by an average of almost <i>13 points</i>.</p><p></p><p>So does that make Collins’s race a toss-up? You could do a little mental math: If the scandal costs him 13 percentage points, and the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">national environment favors Democrats by 6 points</font></a>, that could produce a 19-point swing toward Collins’s Democratic opponent, Nate McMurray — almost enough to offset the strong Republican lean of the district. But you’d be leaving one thing out: Collins is still an incumbent, and incumbents usually outperform the partisan lean of their districts.</p><p>In fact, the incumbency bonus in recent elections has been in the very low double digits — on the order of 12 percentage points.<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-7" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-7"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">7</font></sup></a><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"></span></span></p><p>For instance, you’d expect a Democratic incumbent to win by 15 points in a D+3 seat in a neutral national environment.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> (It used to be quite a bit higher.) That’s just about the same as the magnitude of the scandal penalty. The typical scandal, therefore, essentially wipes out a candidate’s incumbency advantage and makes the district perform similarly to an open-seat race. But it doesn’t necessarily reverse the advantage. Republicans would be favored to win an open-seat race in NY-27, even amid a very blue national political environment, so they’re probably still favored with Collins on the ballot too.</p><p></p><p>There’s one more complication, however, which is that this data suffers from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">survivorship bias</font></a>. The candidates with <i>really</i> bad scandals will often retire rather than seek re-election, or they may lose in their primary. If all scandal-plagued incumbents were forced to be renominated, we’d probably observe a scandal penalty even larger than the 10 or 12 points we’re showing here.</p><p>But in some ways, Collins and the New York GOP are in a position where their hand <i>has</i> been forced. New York has already held its primary and Collins is the nominee; the general election is in only three months. He seems <a href="https://twitter.com/RepChrisCollins/status/1027361629493714949" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">disinclined to bow out</font></a>. And it <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/08/chris-collins-insider-trading-arrest-puts-gop-district-on-midterm-map.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">isn’t entirely clear</font></a> whether it would be possible to replace Collins on the ballot even if Republicans wanted to.<a class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-link" href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-scandals-hurt-candidates-running-for-re-election/#fn-8" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><sup id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-ss-8"><font size="2" color="#0066cc">8</font></sup></a><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item"><span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040espn-footnote-item-inner"></span></span></p><p>New York generally has <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeCrowleyNY/status/1017408249513955328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1017408740855693314&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2F2018%2F7%2F12%2F17564576%2Falexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-crowley-twitter-ballot-new-york" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">fairly strict laws about removing candidates</font></a>.</p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> This is the type of scandal that might have induced a retirement if it had occurred a year ago, but the GOP may not have that choice.</p><p></p><p>The Cook Political Report <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1027213052578619393" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">moved NY-27 from noncompetitive to its “Likely Republican” category</font></a> after the news on Wednesday morning. I might go one step further and put it in the “Lean Republican” category instead, even though it’s a <i>really</i> red district. (It went for Trump by 25 points in 2016.) Soon, we’ll be able to tell you what the FiveThirtyEight House model thinks too, so it’s back to work on that.</p><p>But in general, Republicans face a very long list of <i>potentially</i> competitive districts — places where Democrats aren’t necessarily favored at even odds, but have a fighting chance when they have no real business doing so. That list got one seat longer after Collins’s arrest. Cashing in a few of those lottery tickets is what might turn a near-miss for the Democrats into a narrow majority — or a narrow majority into a wave.</p><p><i>Check out all the </i><a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/?ex_cid=endlink" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><i><font color="#0066cc">polls</font></i></a><i> we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2018 midterms.</i></p><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> <br></p><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040entry-footnotes ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-print-only"><h2>Footnotes</h2><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040entry-footnotes-content"><ol class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-footnotes"><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-1"><span><p>The definition of what constitutes a scandal is inherently subjective, but Nathaniel’s data set defines it as an accusation of objective wrongdoing (e.g., breaking the law, having an affair), as opposed to a subjective controversy, such as when a candidate makes an outlandish comment or deviates from social norms. As a benchmark, Rep. Jim Jordan’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/us/politics/jim-jordan-ohio-state-sexual-abuse.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">allegedly lying about his knowledge of incidents of sexual assault</font></a> toward wrestlers at Ohio State University while he was the coach there constitutes a scandal while candidate <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/7/30/17629580/riggleman-cockburn-bigfoot-erotica" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">Denver Riggleman’s alleged penchant for bigfoot-themed pornography</font></a> would not. Collins’s arrest by the FBI is unambiguously a scandal.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-2"><span><p>That is, I exclude cases such as in Louisiana or California where there was a runoff between two candidates of the same party.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-3"><span><p>Previous victory margin is adjusted for the national political environment at the time. It’s also adjusted to account for whether the candidate was already an incumbent or instead won an open-seat race or defeated an incumbent.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-4"><span><p>Partisan lean is a measure of how blue or red a state or district is in a neutral political environment; more on this in a moment.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-5"><span><p>I deliberately excluded fundraising data and the opponent’s political experience level, even though our House model will use them, because they could plausibly be affected by the scandal — a scandal-tinged incumbent will draw more experienced opposition and may have trouble raising money.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-6"><span><p>In a new twist this year, the version of partisan lean we’re using for the House model accounts for partisanship in state legislative elections as well as in presidential elections; more about that in the near future.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-7"><span><p>For instance, you’d expect a Democratic incumbent to win by 15 points in a D+3 seat in a neutral national environment.</p></span></li><li id="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-fn-8"><span><p>New York generally has <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeCrowleyNY/status/1017408249513955328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1017408740855693314&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vox.com%2F2018%2F7%2F12%2F17564576%2Falexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-crowley-twitter-ballot-new-york" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><font color="#0066cc">fairly strict laws about removing candidates</font></a>.</p></span></li></ol></div> </div><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"> <br></p><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-mini-bio"><p>Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. <span class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-mail"><a><i class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-icon ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-icon-mail"></i></a></span></p></div></span><p class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-metadata ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-single-topic"><i class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-icon ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-icon-mail"><span><span><br></span></span></i></p></div><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-share"><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sharedaddy ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sd-sharing-enabled"><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-robots-nocontent ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sd-block ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sd-social ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sd-social-icon-text ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sd-sharing"><div class="ydpa8eaedf4yiv1181137040gmail-sd-content"><ul></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>=======================================================<br> List services made available by First Step Internet,<br> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.<br> <a href="http://www.fsr.net" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.fsr.net</a><br> mailto:<a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>=======================================================</div>
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