<div dir="ltr" style=""><div>What you have pointed out is acknowledged in the book. Solomon merely says that these folks take issue with some aspects of the argument. They do not disagree with everything. For example they have a high regard for Mann, but point out that his hockey stick graph is in error. He says that the common consensus may be right, but that it is not settled.</div><div><br /></div><div>Roger<br /><br /><br /></div><div style="padding-left: 5px; margin-left: 5px; border-left-color: rgb(119, 119, 119); border-left-width: 3px; border-left-style: solid;">-----Original Message-----<br />Subject: Re: [Vision2020] PNAS 2-22-16: Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise, Potential 4 ft., This Century<br />From: "Ron Force" <ronforce@gmail.com><br />To: lfalen <lfalen@turbonet.com>, "Moscow Vision 2020" <vision2020@moscow.com><br />Date: 02/28/16 23:42:00<br /><br />
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-size: small;">When you list authorities who deny some aspect of climate science, you should really look into their backgrounds before posting the list. While i didn't go through the whole list, here's the first few:</div>
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-size: small;">Edward Wegman-- a statistician who presented a critical report on behalf of a Republican House member. The report was withdrawn after it was found to be plagiarized.</div>
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-size: small;">Richard Tol-- doesn't deny that climate change exists, just thinks that the economic consequences won't be severe.</div>
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-size: small;">Christopher Landsea-- in agreement with climate change forecasts, but doesn't believe that the severity of current hurricanes can be traced to global warming.</div>
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-size: small;">Duncan Wingham--
<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">In the 1990s, Wingham was involved in a four-year satellite study of the </span>Antarctic ice sheet
<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">. His conclusion then, and from later research, is that the Antarctic has contributed little to observed rising </span>
<a title="Sea levels" style="color: rgb(11, 0, 128); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none; background-image: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_levels">sea levels</a>
<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> in the 20th century. However, he has also stated that "it is possible that the consequences of </span>
<a title="Global warming" style="color: rgb(11, 0, 128); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none; background-image: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming">global warming</a>
<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> on sea level rise have been underestimated... Other sources of rise must be underestimated. In particular it is possible that the effect of global warming on thermal expansion [on the oceans] is larger than we thought" (Wikipedia)</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Bob Carter (Robert i Carter) (deceased) Lost his position at Cook University for failure to publish in peer-reviewed publications. Was on the payroll of the Heartland Institute (Koch Brothers).</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Vincent Gray--- Chief chemist (retired) for the New Zealand Coal Research Organization...</span>
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<span style="color: rgb(37, 37, 37); line-height: 22.4px; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">and on it goes.</span>
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<font size="2">Ron Force
<br />Moscow Idaho USA</font>
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<div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Feb 27, 2016 at 1:35 PM, lfalen
<span dir="ltr"><
<a href="index.html?_n%5Bp%5D%5Bmain%5D=win.main.tree&_n%5Bp%5D%5Bcontent%5D=mail.compose&to=lfalen@turbonet.com" target="_blank">lfalen@turbonet.com</a>></span> wrote:
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<div>There is climate change all the time, but how much is due to anthropogenic causes is debatable. Read the book The Deniers by Lawrence Solomon. He lists the following as questioning some aspects of the prevailing dogma - Dr. Edward Wegman, Dr. Richard Toll, Dr. Christopher Landsea, Dr. Duncan Wingham, Dr. Robert lCarter, Dr. Richard Lindzen, Dr. Vincent Gray, Dr. Syun-I
<span style="font-style: italic;">chi Akasodu, Dr. Tom V. Segalstad,, Zbigniew Jaworoski, David Bromwich, Hendrik Tennekes, Freeman Dyson, Antonino Zichichi, Dr. Eigil Friis-Cristensen, Dr. Henrik Svensmark, Sami Solanki, Japer Kirby, Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. George Hukla, Rhodes Fairbridge, Dr. William Gray, Dr. Cliff Ollier, Paul Reiter. Some who formally embraced the anthropogenic aspect but now have doubts are Roger Revelle, Claude Allegre, Reid Bryson and David Bellamy. Ravelle is Al Gores mentor. There is climate change but the cause is not settled. This dose not mean that we should not be concerned about air pollution and should be trying to improve that.</span>
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<span style="font-style: italic;">Roger</span>
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<div style="padding-left: 5px; margin-left: 5px; border-left-color: rgb(119, 119, 119); border-left-width: 3px; border-left-style: solid;">-----Original Message-----
<br />Subject: [Vision2020] PNAS 2-22-16: Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise, Potential 4 ft., This Century
<br />From: "Ted Moffett" <
<a href="index.html?_n%5Bp%5D%5Bmain%5D=win.main.tree&_n%5Bp%5D%5Bcontent%5D=mail.compose&to=starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank">starbliss@gmail.com</a>>
<br />To: "Moscow Vision 2020" <
<a href="index.html?_n%5Bp%5D%5Bmain%5D=win.main.tree&_n%5Bp%5D%5Bcontent%5D=mail.compose&to=vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank">vision2020@moscow.com</a>>
<br />Date: 02/26/16 04:41:48
<br />
<br />
<div dir="ltr">
<div>Article just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is at second link below, with an article from Climate Central about this article lower down. The 4 ft. sea level rise</div>
<div>potential by the end of this century is mentioned in the Climate Central article, based on a business as usual scenario, with the global economy continuing to be primarily fossil fuel powered. And for long term time scales, sea level rise from anthropogenic global warming could continue for centuries, as the first reference below indicates. Global warming has the potential to remain a major problem for many generations in the future:</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2013/07/sea-level-rise-over-next-2000-years/" target="_blank">http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2013/07/sea-level-rise-over-next-2000-years/</a>
</div>
<div>
<h1>Sea level rise over the next 2000 years</h1>
<div>
<span>Posted on</span>
<a title="6:33 am" href="http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2013/07/sea-level-rise-over-next-2000-years/" target="_blank" rel="bookmark">
<font color="#000080">17/07/2013</font>
</a>
<span>
<span>by</span>
<span>
<a title="View all posts by Bethan Davies" href="http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/author/bethan/" target="_blank" rel="author">
<font color="#000080">Bethan Davies</font>
</a>
</span></span>
</div>
<div>
<div>A new paper by
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/07/10/1219414110" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Levermann et al. in PNAS</font>
</a> uses the record of past rates of sea level rise from palaeo archives and numerical computer models to understand how much sea level rise we can expect per degree of warming in the future. These data suggest that we can expect a global sea level rise of
<span style="font-weight: bold;">2.3 m per 1°C of warming within the next 2000 years</span>: well within societal timeframes. A 2°C of warming would result in a global sea level rise of 4.8 m within 2000 years. This would inundate many coastal cities in Europe alone, and cause untold economic and societal damage.</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>------------------------------------------------------------</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<font size="6">"Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era"</font>
</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/02/17/1517056113" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/02/17/1517056113</a>
</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>------------------------------------------------</div>
<div>
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</div>
<div>
<font size="6">Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise</font>
</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-reveals-acceleration-of-sea-level-rise-20055" target="_blank">http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-reveals-acceleration-of-sea-level-rise-20055</a>
</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-style: italic;">Published:</span> February 22nd, 2016</div>
<div>
<br />
</div>
<div>By John Upton</div>
<div>
<div>The oceans have heaved up and down as world temperatures have waxed and waned, but as new research tracking the past 2,800 years shows, never during that time did the seas rise as sharply or as suddenly as has been the case during the last century.</div>
<div>The new study, the culmination of a decade of work by three teams of farflung scientists, has charted what they called an "acceleration" in sea level rise that's triggering and worsening flooding in coastlines around the world.</div>
<div>The findings also warn of much worse to come.</div>
<div>The scientists reported in a
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1517056113" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">paper published Monday</font>
</a> in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that they have greater than 95 percent certainty that at least half of more than 5 inches of sea level rise they detected during the 20th century was directly caused by global warming.</div>
<div>
<span style="width: 720px;">
<a href="http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2_22_16_John_CC_NuisanceFlooding_GlobalSLR_1050_718_s_c1_c_c.jpg" target="_blank">
<img width="720" height="492" alt="" src="http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2_22_16_John_CC_NuisanceFlooding_GlobalSLR_720_492_s_c1_c_c.jpg">
</a>
</span>
</div>
<div>"During the past millennia, sea level has never risen nearly as fast as during the last century," said
<a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Stefan Rahmstorf</font>
</a> , a physics professor at Potsdam University in Germany, one of 10 authors of the paper. "That was to be expected, since global warming inevitably leads to rising seas."</div>
<div>By trapping heat, rising concentrations of atmospheric pollution are causing glaciers and ice sheets to melt into seas, lifting high tides ever higher.</div>
<div>Globally, average temperatures have
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-world-is-halfway-to-2c-19663" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">risen about 1°C</font>
</a> (nearly 2°F) since the 1800s. Last year was the
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2015-hottest-year-2016-could-surpass-19929" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">hottest recorded</font>
</a> , easily surpassing the mark set
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/record-2014-hottest-year-18502" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">one year earlier</font>
</a> . The expansion of warming ocean water was
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/rapid-ocean-warming-making-floods-worse-19955" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">blamed in a recent study</font>
</a> for about half of sea level rise during the past decade.</div>
<div>Changes in sea level vary around the world and over time, because of the effects of ocean cycles, volcanic eruptions and other phenomenon. But the hastening pace of sea level rise is being caused by climate change.</div>
<div>"The new sea level data confirm once again just how unusual the age of modern global warming, due to our greenhouse gas emissions, is," Rahmstorf said. "They also demonstrate that one of the most dangerous impacts of global warming, namely rising seas, is well underway."</div>
<div>Were it not for the effects of global warming, the researchers concluded that sea levels might actually have fallen during the 20th century. At the very least, they would have risen far less than was actually the case.</div>
<div>A report published by Climate Central on Monday, the result of an analysis based in part on the findings in Monday's paper, concluded that climate change was to blame for three quarters of the coastal floods recorded in the U.S. from 2005 to 2014, mostly high tide floods. That was up from less than half of floods in the 1950s.</div>
<div>"I think this is really a first placing of human fingerprints on coastal floods, and thousands of them," said
<a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/people/ben_strauss" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Ben Strauss</font>
</a> , vice president for sea level and climate impacts at Climate Central. Strauss led the analysis, which also involved government and academic researchers.</div>
<div>Governments and communities have been slow to respond to the crisis of rising seas, though efforts to adapt to the changes underway are now being planned around the world.</div>
<div>"There's a definite recognition among people who weren't talking about sea level rise 5 years ago that it's something to be concerned about," said
<a href="http://www.spur.org/about/staff/laura-tam" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Laura Tam</font>
</a> , a policy director at SPUR, which is an urban planning think-tank based in San Francisco. "And something that needs to be planned for."</div>
<div>A high-profile effort to track long-term changes in sea levels was based on analysis of sediment layers at a single location in North Carolina.
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/108/27/11017.abstract" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Published in 2011</font>
</a> , that study produced a chart of sea levels that bounced up and down over time, changing with global temperatures, and then ticked sharply upward as industrialization triggered global warming.</div>
<div>"North Carolina basically showed us that this could be done," said
<a href="http://eos.tufts.edu/people/kemp.htm" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Andrew Kemp</font>
</a> , a sea level scientist at Tuft's University. He was a co-author of both Monday's paper and the paper published in 2011.</div>
<div>Monday's paper combined the data from North Carolina with similar analyses from 23 other locations around the world plus data from tide gauges.</div>
<div>
<a href="http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/deconto/Site/Home.html" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Rob DeConto</font>
</a> , a professor at UMass Amherst who researches prehistoric climates, and who was not involved with the study, described the report as a "nice job" that "used a lot more data than anybody else has used in a study like this."</div>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>RELATED</th>
<td>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-human-fingerprints-on-coastal-floods-20050" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">The Human Fingerprints on Coastal Floods</font>
</a>
</span>
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/global-icons-at-risk-from-sea-level-rise-pictures-19633" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Images Show Impact of Sea Level Rise on Global Icons</font>
</a>
</span>
<br />
<span style="font-weight: bold;">
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-with-10-feet-of-sea-level-rise-17428" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">What Does U.S. Look Like With 10 Feet of Sea Level Rise?</font>
</a>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div>The analysis goes further than explaining historical sea level rise. It includes worrying projections for the future.</div>
<div>By extending their findings to future scenarios, the scientists showed that the amount of land that could be inundated in the coming years will depend heavily on whether humanity succeeds in slashing pollution from fuel burning, deforestation and farming.</div>
<div>The Paris Agreement
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-unites-delivers-hopeful-climate-deal-19808" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">negotiated in December</font>
</a> aims to do just that, with nations agreeing to take voluntary steps to reduce the amount of pollution they release after 2020. It could take decades, though, before that untested approach is revealed to have been a success, a failure, or something in between.</div>
<div>Even If humans quickly stop polluting the atmosphere, potentially keeping a global temperature rise to well below 2°C (3.8°F) compared with preindustrial times - a major goal of the Paris climate agreement - seas may still rise by an additional 9 inches to 2 feet this century, the study concluded. That would trigger serious flooding in some areas, and worsen it in others.</div>
<div>Under the worst-case scenario investigated, if pollution continues unabated, and if seas respond to ongoing warming by rising at the fastest rates considered likely, sea levels could rise more than 4 feet this century alone, wiping out coastal infrastructure and driving communities inland.</div>
<div>
<span style="width: 720px;">
<a href="http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2_22_16_John_CC_NuisanceFlooding_USFloodDays_decades_1050_718_s_c1_c_c.jpg" target="_blank">
<img width="720" height="492" alt="" src="http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2_22_16_John_CC_NuisanceFlooding_USFloodDays_decades_720_492_s_c1_c_c.jpg">
</a>
</span>
</div>
<div>The problem would be made far worse if the Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets collapse - something that's difficult to forecast.</div>
<div>Their projections for future sea level rise were similar to those
<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">published in 2013</font>
</a> by scientists convened by the United Nations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/the-5-scariest-charts-from-the-ipcc-climate-report-16529" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">most recent assessment</font>
</a> of climate science.</div>
<div>They also closely matched projections that were coincidentally
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1500515113" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">published in a separate paper</font>
</a> in the same journal on Monday.</div>
<div>The similarity of the other papers' projections "strengthens the confidence" in the findings, said
<a href="http://www.bobkopp.net/" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Robert Kopp</font>
</a> , a Rutgers University climate scientist who led the analysis.</div>
<div>The convergence of the findings in Monday's papers was a "nice result," said
<a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mengel/" target="_blank">
<font color="#000080">Matthias Mengel</font>
</a> , a researcher at at Potsdam University who coauthored the other sea level rise study released Monday. He led a team of sea level scientists who took a different approach than Kopp's team to projecting future sea levels.</div>
<div>Mengel's team projected future sea levels by combining the results of models that anticipate changes to icebergs, ice sheets and ocean expansion in the years ahead, and used those findings to predict sea levels.</div>
<div>For years, different approaches to projecting future sea level rise have arrived at different results, but the gap has recently been closing, which Mengel described as "a really good sign for sea level science" - even if it's ominous news for humanity.</div>
<div>---------------------------------------</div>
<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div>
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