<div dir="ltr">For those who dismiss the significant planet wide magnitude of the costs and damages of sea level rise from anthropogenic global warming, the following paper from PNAS might give pause. Full paper at URL below:<br>
<br><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/29/1222469111.abstract">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/29/1222469111.abstract</a><br><br><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/29/1222469111.full.pdf+html">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/29/1222469111.full.pdf+html</a><br>
<div class="">
<h2>Significance</h2>
<p id="p-3">Coastal flood damages are
expected to increase significantly during the 21st century as sea levels
rise and socioeconomic
development increases the number of people
and value of assets in the coastal floodplain. Estimates of future
damages and
adaptation costs are essential for
supporting efforts to reduce emissions driving sea-level rise as well as
for designing
strategies to adapt to increasing coastal
flood risk. This paper presents such estimates derived by taking into
account a
wide range of uncertainties in
socioeconomic development, sea-level rise, continental topography data,
population data, and
adaptation strategies.
</p>
</div><h1 id="article-title-1" itemprop="headline">Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise</h1><div class="" id="abstract-2">
<h2>Abstract</h2>
<p id="p-4">Coastal flood damage and
adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a
global scale taking into account
a wide range of uncertainties in
continental topography data, population data, protection strategies,
socioeconomic development
and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global
mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate
models from
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the
published range
of contributions from ice sheets and
glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2–4.6% of global population is expected
to be flooded
annually in 2100 under 25–123 cm of global
mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3–9.3% of global
gross domestic
product. Damages of this magnitude are
very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be
widespread. The global
costs of protecting the coast with dikes
are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$
12–71 billion
in 2100, but much smaller than the global
cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of
damage to
regional production supply. Flood damages
by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied
protection strategy
than to variations in climate and
socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography
and climate model).
Our results emphasize the central role of
long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into
account that
protecting large parts of the developed
coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of
defense failure. <br></p><p>------------------------------------------</p><p>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br></p>
</div></div>