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<div class="">September 8, 2013</div>
<h1>The Wonk Gap</h1>
<h6 class="">By
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<a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/paulkrugman/index.html" rel="author" title="More Articles by PAUL KRUGMAN"><span>PAUL KRUGMAN</span></a></span></h6>
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<p>
On Saturday, Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming delivered the weekly <a title="Talking Points Memo" href="http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/weekly-gop-address-makes-no-mention-of-syria?ref=fpb">Republican address</a>.
He ignored Syria, presumably because his party is deeply conflicted on
the issue. (For the record, so am I.) Instead, he demanded repeal of the
Affordable Care Act. “The health care law,” he declared, “has proven to
be unpopular, unworkable and unaffordable,” and he predicted “sticker
shock” in the months ahead. </p>
<p>
So, another week, another denunciation of Obamacare. Who cares? But Mr.
Barrasso’s remarks were actually interesting, although not in the way he
intended. You see, all the recent news on health costs has been good.
So Mr. Barrasso is predicting sticker shock precisely when serious fears
of such a shock are fading fast. Why would he do that? </p>
<p>
Well, one likely answer is that he hasn’t heard any of the good news. Think about it: Who would tell him? </p>
<p>
My guess, in other words, was that Mr. Barrasso was inadvertently illustrating the widening “<a title="Washington Monthly" href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2012_05/the_wonk_gap037563.php">wonk gap</a>”
— the G.O.P.’s near-complete lack of expertise on anything substantive.
Health care is the most prominent example, but the dumbing down extends
across the spectrum, from budget issues to national security to poll
analysis. Remember, Mitt Romney and much of his party went into Election
Day <a title="CBS News" href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/">expecting victory</a>. </p>
<p>
About health reform: Mr. Barrasso was wrong about everything, even the
“unpopular” bit, as I’ll explain in a minute. Mainly, however, he was
completely missing the story on affordability. </p>
<p>
For the truth is that the good news on costs just keeps coming in. There has been a striking <a title="ThinkProgress" href="http://thinkprogress.org/health/2013/08/20/2498391/growth-in-health-care-costs-continues-to-decrease-since-passage-of-obamacare/">slowdown in overall health costs</a>
since the Affordable Care Act was enacted, with many experts giving the
law at least partial credit. And we now have a good idea what insurance
premiums will be once the law goes fully into effect; a comprehensive <a href="http://kaiserfamilyfoundation.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/early-look-at-premiums-and-participation-in-marketplaces.pdf">survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation</a>
finds that on average premiums will be significantly lower than those
predicted by the Congressional Budget Office when the law was passed.
</p>
<p>
But do Republican politicians know any of this? Not if they’re listening
to conservative “experts,” who have been offering a steady stream of
misinformation. All those <a title="Wonk Blog" href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/01/the-shocking-truth-about-obamacares-rate-shock/">claims about sticker shock</a>,
for example, come from obviously misleading comparisons. For example,
supposed experts compare average insurance rates under the new system,
which will cover everyone, with the rates currently paid by a handful of
young, healthy people for bare-bones insurance. And they conveniently
ignore the subsidies many Americans will receive. </p>
<p>
At the same time, in an echo of the Romney camp’s polling fantasies,
other conservative “experts” are creating false impressions about public
opinion. Just after Kaiser released a <a href="http://kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kaiser-health-tracking-poll-august-2013/">poll</a>
showing a strong majority — 57 percent — opposed to the idea of
defunding health reform, the Heritage Foundation put out a poster <a title="TPM" href="http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/08/heritages-fun-with-defund-obamacare-polling-numbers.php">claiming that 57 percent</a>
of Americans want reform defunded. Did the experts at Heritage simply
read the numbers upside down? No, they claimed, they were referring to
some other poll. Whatever really happened, the practical effect was to
delude the right-wing faithful. </p>
<p>
And the point is that episodes like this have become the rule, not the
exception, on the right. How many Republicans know, for example, that
government employment has declined, not risen, under President Obama?
Certainly Senator Rand Paul was incredulous when I <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/09/09/816761/flabbergasted-rand-paul-learns-public-employment-decreased-under-obama/">pointed this out to him on TV</a>
last fall. On the contrary, he insisted, “the size of growth of
government is enormous under President Obama” — which was completely
untrue but was presumably what his sources had told him, knowing that it
was what he wanted to hear. </p>
<p>
For that, surely, is what the wonk gap is all about. Political
conservatism and serious policy analysis can coexist, and there was a
time when they did. Back in the 1980s, after all, health experts at
Heritage made a good-faith effort to <a title="MSNBC" href="http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/08/21/obamacare-the-heritage-foundation-disowns-its-baby/">devise a plan</a> for universal health coverage — and what they came up with was the system now known as Obamacare. </p>
<p>
But that was then. Modern conservatism has become a sort of cult, very
much given to conspiracy theorizing when confronted with inconvenient
facts. Liberal policies were supposed to cause hyperinflation, so low
measured <a title="Daily Beast" href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/05/01/sticker-shock.html">inflation</a>
must reflect statistical fraud; the threat of climate change implies
the need for public action, so global warming must be a gigantic <a title="Politico" href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/02/santorum-i-never-believed-global-warming-hoax-113739.html">scientific hoax</a>. Oh, and Mitt Romney would have won if only he had been a real conservative. </p>
<p>
It’s all kind of funny, in a way. Unfortunately, however, this runaway
cult controls the House, which gives it immense destructive power — the
power, for example, to wreak havoc on the economy by refusing to raise
the debt ceiling. And it’s disturbing to realize that this power rests
in the hands of men who, thanks to the wonk gap, quite literally have no
idea what they’re doing. </p>
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<br clear="all"><br>-- <br>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br><a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br><br><img src="http://users.moscow.com/waf/WP%20Fox%2001.jpg"><br>
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