<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt">I'm just googling. Naively, I expected to easily find climate model predictions and how they prevailed against real-world data, but I didn't. The funny thing is, you can find people like Roy Spencer and Judith Curry showing where the models fail by under-predicting warming, and you can find more mainstream climate scientists showing where the arctic ice cap is shrinking faster than their models expected, or that sea level rise is worse than expected. Nowhere could I find a simple plot of how each climate model is doing wrt real-world observations.<br><br>If I had went to the trouble and expense of making a climate model and I intended to show that it had predictive ability, I'd make a website that showed (in real-time as data filtered in) how that model was doing in the various channels it had predictive ability
in. I'd show what the initial conditions were, and some background on why those values were chosen. I'd show what assumptions were made and why. I'd even provide the code for the climate model itself, so that coding mistakes could be identified easier. I would probably throw installation instructions in there, while I was at it.<br><br>The predictions would have error bars, at the 95% confidence level, as would the real-world observations. The minute the error bars for the observations strayed out of the 95% confidence for the ability of the model, "good" or "bad", that model would have failed. That would trigger an exhaustive analysis of why the model failed, and would probably end up in a paper being written and submitted for peer review describing the results of the analysis. The results of the analysis would result in either a fix for the old model or a completely new model being written. Rinse,
lather, repeat.<br><br>That's just for basic science. If I though world leaders might be trying to use my model to base policy decisions on that would affect thousands or millions of people, I'd probably be even more strict.<br><br>Paul<br><div><span><br></span></div><div><br></div> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <hr size="1"> <font face="Arial" size="2"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe@gmail.com><br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> Paul Rumelhart <godshatter@yahoo.com> <br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cc:</span></b> Ted Moffett <starbliss@gmail.com>; Moscow Vision 2020 <vision2020@moscow.com> <br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, June 19, 2013 11:45 AM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [Vision2020] The scientific debate on climate change: 67 comments<br> </font> </div> <div class="y_msg_container"><br><div id="yiv8499019638"><div dir="ltr"><div><div>What are the websites where you are finding this "information"? Websites like "American Thinker," where you can read other articles like one which opens with this quote: "<span class="yiv8499019638">Leftists seem to harbor a profound ignorance
of geography, history, and other hard facts which anyone involved in
politics ought to know. How exactly do they get away with it?" Nothing biased about that statement!<br><br></span></div><span class="yiv8499019638">On the Spencer website there are responses to the article that make some interesting points including one person who states that the graphs (models vs. empirical data) are "broadly consistent" since they are in the same graph quadrant. Meaning the empirical data suggests global warming, just not at the rate that the models suggest.<br>
<br></span></div><span class="yiv8499019638">Here is another interesting commentary on these studies: <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://mediamatters.org/blog/2011/08/01/climate-science-once-again-twisted-beyond-recog/185135">http://mediamatters.org/blog/2011/08/01/climate-science-once-again-twisted-beyond-recog/185135</a><br>
</span><div><span class="yiv8499019638"><br></span></div></div><div class="yiv8499019638gmail_extra"><br><br><div class="yiv8499019638gmail_quote">On Wed, Jun 19, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Paul Rumelhart <span dir="ltr"><<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="yiv8499019638gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;"><div><div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;">The point is that the climate models are predictions, and those predictions are not turning out well in precise areas, and that means they have a problem. They should be comparing the predicted data with the observed data and trying to find out exactly where they are wrong. Are they inflating the positive feedback values for clouds? Are they not putting enough emphasis on solar changes? Are they not taking ENSO into account, are they not taking the jet stream into account? Whatever the problem is, if they want skeptics to accept their climate models as accurate, they have to show how well they predict future data. This isn't some kind of egregious task set before them, it's basic science. Their climate models are
in effect hypotheses, and the observations will either validate those
hypotheses or fail them.<br><br>So why, when you do a google search for climate models vs. observations, do you turn up mostly Spencer and Curry's work, but not that of more mainstream climate scientists?<br><br>Paul<br>
<div><span><br></span></div><div><br></div> <div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;"> <div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <hr size="1">
<font face="Arial"><div class="yiv8499019638im"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> Joe Campbell <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</a>><br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">To:</span></b> Paul Rumelhart <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> <br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cc:</span></b> Ted Moffett <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a>>; Moscow Vision 2020 <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</a>> <br>
</div><b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, June 19, 2013 10:18 AM<div><div class="yiv8499019638h5"><br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [Vision2020] The scientific debate on climate change: 67 comments<br>
</div></div></font> </div><div><div class="yiv8499019638h5"> <div><br><div><div dir="ltr">Is the point that it might take an extra generation for the polar ice caps to melt? When you are talking about climate change I fail to see how "less dire" isn't still DIRE.<br>
</div><div>
<br><br><div>On Wed, Jun 19, 2013 at 10:15 AM, Paul Rumelhart <span dir="ltr"><<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;">
<div><div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;">The observations I'm talking about are temperature measurements. They tend to be much less dire than the predictions. Here is one example: <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-observations-for-tropical-tropospheric-temperature/">http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-observations-for-tropical-tropospheric-temperature/</a><span><font color="#888888"><br>
<br>Paul<br></font></span><div><div><span><br></span></div><div><br></div> </div><div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;"><div> </div><div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;">
<div> <div dir="ltr"> <hr size="1"> <font face="Arial"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> Joe Campbell <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">To:</span></b> Paul Rumelhart <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> <br><b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cc:</span></b> Ted Moffett
<<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a>>; Moscow Vision 2020 <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</a>> <br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, June 18, 2013 8:52 PM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [Vision2020] The scientific debate on climate change: 67 comments<br> </font> </div></div><div><div> <div><br><div><div><div>Observations? Skeptic observations? What is the observable data you allude to?</div>
<div><br>On Jun 18, 2013, at 4:48 PM, Paul Rumelhart <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;">
That's cute. If you erased the words "SKEPTIC MODELS" and replaced them with "OBSERVATIONS" and then drew, say, the Incredible Hulk in the
other corner it might be a funnier cartoon. Or maybe Iron Man, or even the boxing kangaroo from the old bugs bunny cartoons.<br><br>Paul<br><div><span><br></span></div><div><br></div> <div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;">
<div style="font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <hr size="1"> <font face="Arial"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> Ted Moffett <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold;">To:</span></b> Moscow Vision 2020 <<a rel="nofollow" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank" href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</a>> <br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, June 18,
2013 3:24 PM<br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold;">Subject:</span></b> [Vision2020] The scientific debate on climate change: 67 comments<br> </font> </div> <div><br><div><div dir="ltr"><h3><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.realclimate.org/?comments_popup=15488">http://www.realclimate.org/?comments_popup=15488</a><br>
</h3><h3><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/05/the-scientific-debate-on-climate-change/" title="Permanent Link to The scientific debate on climate change">The scientific debate on climate change</a></h3>
<div>Filed under: <ul><li><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/" title="View all posts in Climate Science">Climate Science</a></li>
</ul> — david @ 24 May 2013 </div>
<div>by Jill and David Archer</div>
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