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Here is an article from the BBC on a paper describing how the rate
of global warming has stalled for a few years, and how this is
actually impacting their climate models enough that they have
decided that they should actually try to factor it in. I see this
as a positive thing. Their climate models have always predicted
higher temperatures than have been observed, yet in the past they
have been content to let their models run on freely, with nary a
concern for this disparity.<br>
<br>
Of course, they have no idea what sort of climate forcing, strong
enough to significantly slow down the rate of warming, has been
interfering, but at least they have set aside a ledger item for it.
They have acquiesced to the idea that this may push their
expectations of doom and gloom out a few years, though they expect
with confidence that it will get as bad as they say it will despite
knowing next to nothing about the strength or duration of the
forcing that is interfering. Maybe someday they will get the idea
that perhaps there are other things affecting the climate, and will
study those with the same vigor they do CO2. I have high hopes.
Oh, but then I read the last two paragraphs: <br>
<br>
"Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say
the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not
real?
<p>"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said."<br>
</p>
<p>Nuts. Of course, climate skeptics say that it's the comparative
size of the role of CO2 component, as well as the unknown
strengths or even directions of the feedbacks that are at issue.
Not many deny that it has gotten warmer.<br>
</p>
<p>Anyway, here's the URL:
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22567023</a><br>
</p>
<p>And here's the article:<br>
<br>
</p>
<h1 class="story-header">Climate slowdown means extreme rates of
warming 'not as likely'</h1>
<p><span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-name">By
Matt McGrath</span> <span class="byline-title">Environment
correspondent, BBC News<br>
</span></span></p>
<p><span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-title">Scientists
say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will
lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.<br>
<br>
Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the
heating of the Earth's atmosphere.<br>
<br>
Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will
reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.<br>
<br>
But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter
significantly. <br>
</span></span></p>
<p><span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-title">The
slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been
studied for several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met
Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.<br>
<br>
But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any
slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the
short-term and long-term.<br>
<br>
An international team of researchers looked at how the last
decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity
and the shorter term climate response.</span></span></p>
<p><span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-title">Transient
nature<br>
<br>
Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we
doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the
Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several
thousand years.<br>
<br>
Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation
again based on a doubling of CO2.<br>
<br>
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007
that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C
(1.8-5.4F).<br>
<br>
But in this new analysis, by only including the temperatures
from the last decade, the projected range would be 0.9-2.0C. <br>
</span></span></p>
<p><span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-title">"The
hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually
looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the
last decade alone," said Dr Alexander Otto from the University
of Oxford.<br>
<br>
"The most extreme projections are looking less likely than
before."<br>
<br>
The authors calculate that over the coming decades global
average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than
expected.<br>
<br>
But when it comes to the longer term picture, the authors say
their work is consistent with previous estimates. The IPCC
said that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2.0-4.5C.</span></span></p>
<p><span class="byline byline-photo"><span class="byline-title">Ocean
storage<br>
<br>
This latest research, including the decade of stalled
temperature rises, produces a range of 0.9-5.0C.<br>
<br>
"It is a bigger range of uncertainty," said Dr Otto.<br>
<br>
"But it still includes the old range. We would all like
climate sensitivity to be lower but it isn't."<br>
<br>
The researchers say the difference between the lower
short-term estimate and the more consistent long-term picture
can be explained by the fact that the heat from the last
decade has been absorbed into and is being stored by the
world's oceans.<br>
<br>
Not everyone agrees with this perspective.<br>
<br>
Prof Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales,
says the conclusion about the oceans needs to be taken with a
grain of salt for now.<br>
<br>
"There is other research out there pointing out that this
storage may be part of a natural cycle that will eventually
reverse, either due to El Nino or the so-called Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation, and therefore may not imply what the
authors are suggesting," he said.<br>
<br>
The authors say there are ongoing uncertainties surrounding
the role of aerosols in the atmosphere and around the issue of
clouds.<br>
<br>
"We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the
overall trend is independent of it, and people should be
exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is
doing," said Dr Otto.<br>
<br>
Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics
who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global
warming is not real?<br>
<br>
"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said.<br>
</span></span></p>
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