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<DIV>Gee, I would have thought any pollster with any credentials at all would
understand measures of central tendency. Are you saying Central Tendency
Theorem is something else again?</DIV>
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style="FONT-STYLE: normal; DISPLAY: inline; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: small; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: none">Sue
H. </DIV>
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<DIV style="font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A title=art.deco.studios@gmail.com
href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com">Art Deco</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Monday, November 05, 2012 2:40 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] Polls 'oversampling'
Democrats?</DIV></DIV></DIV>
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<DIV
style="FONT-STYLE: normal; DISPLAY: inline; FONT-FAMILY: 'Calibri'; COLOR: #000000; FONT-SIZE: small; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; TEXT-DECORATION: none">As
someone who has acted as a consultant in years past to various polling attempts,
I can safely say that almost every poll fails to meet the standards set for
using the Central Tendency Theorem, the mathematical/statistical basis for
accurate sampling. Some pollsters do not seem to really understand it at
all.<BR><BR>The most obvious error is the lack of a random sample in these times
due to several factors. The problem is sometimes so bad that the degree of
randomness is not even able to be reasonably predicted. Therefore, the
confidence value and range of error cannot be accurately calculated.<BR><BR>I
haven't done it, but if someone were to Google several of the most recent,
so-called major polls, I'd guess there would be a range of
predictions.<BR><BR>w.<BR><BR>
<DIV class=gmail_quote>On Mon, Nov 5, 2012 at 5:14 PM, Scott Dredge <SPAN
dir=ltr><<A href="mailto:scooterd408@hotmail.com"
target=_blank>scooterd408@hotmail.com</A>></SPAN> wrote:<BR>
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<DIV dir=ltr>Not surprisingly is that right wing radio / media has been
complaining about liberal pollsters supposedly 'oversampling' Democratic
voters so make it look like Obama is winning. I'd think that polling is
fairly accurate these days and if the pollsters track record is poor, they
wouldn't get much credence or attention until they made the necessary
adjustments to have their predictions more closely matched to results.
I'm looking forward to watching all the fun tomorrow night!<BR><BR>My can't
miss prediction: Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.<SPAN
class=HOEnZb><FONT
color=#888888><BR><BR>-Scott<BR></FONT></SPAN></DIV></DIV><BR>=======================================================<BR>List
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mailto:<A
href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>=======================================================<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><BR><BR
clear=all><BR>-- <BR>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<BR><A
href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com"
target=_blank>art.deco.studios@gmail.com</A><BR><BR><IMG
src="http://users.moscow.com/waf/WP%20Fox%2001.jpg"><BR><BR>
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