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<div>September 8, 2012</div>
<h1>New Rules</h1>
<h6>By
<span>
<a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/opinion/editorialsandoped/oped/columnists/thomaslfriedman/index.html" rel="author" title="More Articles by THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN" target="_blank"><span>THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN</span></a></span></h6>
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<p>
Shanghai </p>
<p>
I JUST arrived in Shanghai, but I’m thinking about Estonia and wondering
about something Presidents Clinton and Obama have been saying. </p>
<p>
Wired magazine reported last week that public schools in Estonia are
establishing a program for teaching first graders — and kids in all
other grades — how to do computer programming. Wired said that the
curriculum was created “because of the difficulty Estonian companies
face in hiring programmers. Estonia has a burgeoning tech industry
thanks in part to the success of Skype, which was developed in Estonia
in 2003.” </p>
<p>
The news from Estonia prompted The Guardian newspaper of London to
publish an online poll asking its readers: “Children aged 7 to 16 are
being given the opportunity to learn how to code in schools in Estonia,
should U.K. school children be taught programming as part of their
school day?” It’s fascinating to read about all this while visiting
Shanghai, whose public school system in 2010 beat the rest of the world
in math, science and reading in the global PISA exam of 15-year-olds.
Will the Chinese respond by teaching programming to preschoolers?
</p>
<p>
All of this made me think Obama should stop using the phrase — first
minted by Bill Clinton in 1992 — that if you just “work hard and play by
the rules” you should expect that the American system will deliver you a
decent life and a chance for your children to have a better one. That
mantra really resonates with me and, I am sure, with many voters. There
is just one problem: It’s out of date. </p>
<p>
The truth is, if you want a decent job that will lead to a decent life today <i>you</i>
have to work harder, regularly reinvent yourself, obtain at least some
form of postsecondary education, make sure that you’re engaged in
lifelong learning and play by the rules. That’s not a bumper sticker,
but we terribly mislead people by saying otherwise. </p>
<p>
Why? Because when Clinton first employed his phrase in 1992, the
Internet was just emerging, virtually no one had e-mail and the cold war
was just ending. In other words, we were still living in a closed
system, a world of walls, which were just starting to come down. It was a
world before Nafta and the full merger of globalization and the
information technology revolution, a world in which unions and
blue-collar manufacturing were still relatively strong, and where
America could still write a lot of the rules that people played by.
</p>
<p>
That world is gone. It is now a more open system. Technology and
globalization are wiping out lower-skilled jobs faster, while steadily
raising the skill level required for new jobs. More than ever now,
lifelong learning is the key to getting into, and staying in, the middle
class. </p>
<p>
There is a quote attributed to the futurist Alvin Toffler that captures
this new reality: In the future “illiteracy will not be defined by those
who cannot read and write, but by those who cannot learn and relearn.”
Any form of standing still is deadly. </p>
<p>
I covered the Republican convention, and I was impressed in watching my
Times colleagues at how much their jobs have changed. Here’s what a
reporter does in a typical day: report, file for the Web edition, file
for The International Herald Tribune, tweet, update for the Web edition,
report more, track other people’s tweets, do a Web-video spot and then
write the story for the print paper. You want to be a Times reporter
today? That’s your day. <i>You have to work harder and smarter and develop new skills faster</i>. </p>
<p>
Van Ton-Quinlivan, the vice chancellor for work force and economic
development at the California Community Colleges System, explained to me
the four basic skill sets out there today. The first are people who are
“ready now.” That’s people with exactly the right skills an employer is
looking for at the right time. Employers will give the local labor
market and schools the first chance at providing those people, but if
they are not available they’ll go the “shortest distance to find them,”
she said, and today that could be anywhere in the world. Companies who
can’t find “ready now” will look for “ready soon,” people who, with
limited training and on-the-job experience, can fit right in. If they
can’t find those, some will hire “work ready.” These are people with two
or four years of postsecondary education who can be trained, but
companies have shrinking budgets for that now and want public schools to
do it. Last are the growing legions of the “far from ready,” people who
dropped out or have only a high school diploma. Their prospects for a
decent job are small, even if they are ready to “work hard and play by
the rules.” </p>
<p>
Which is why if we ever get another stimulus it has to focus, in part,
on getting more people more education. The unemployment rate today is
4.1 percent for people with four years of college, 6.6 percent for those
with two years, 8.8 percent for high school graduates, and 12.0 percent
for dropouts. </p>
<p>
That’s why I prefer the new mantra floated by Clinton at the Democratic
convention, (which Obama has tried to fund): “We have to prepare more
Americans for the new jobs that are being created in a world fueled by
new technology. That’s why investments in our people” — in more
community colleges, Pell grants and vocational-training classes — “are
more important than ever.” </p>
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