<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:tahoma, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt"><div style="RIGHT: auto"><SPAN style="RIGHT: auto">Yes, Roger, doctors do get second opinions, from other doctors, not from the bus mechanic that is married to their patient.</SPAN></div>
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<div style="RIGHT: auto"><SPAN style="RIGHT: auto">And practice in the <SPAN style="RIGHT: auto" id=misspell-0><SPAN>professional</SPAN></SPAN> sense means to be active in, not<VAR id=yui-ie-cursor></VAR> experimenting on people. </SPAN></div>
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<div style="RIGHT: auto"><SPAN style="RIGHT: auto">Donovan J. Arnold</SPAN></div>
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<DIV style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 0; MARGIN: 5px 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; HEIGHT: 0px; FONT-SIZE: 0px; BORDER-TOP: #ccc 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #ccc 1px solid; PADDING-TOP: 0px" class=hr contentEditable=false readonly="true"></DIV><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> lfalen <lfalen@turbonet.com><BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com>; Paul Rumelhart <godshatter@yahoo.com>; Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe@gmail.com> <BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Cc:</SPAN></B> vision2020@moscow.com <BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Monday, July 9, 2012 9:08 PM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy: "Media Miss <SPAN id=misspell-3 class=mark>theForest</SPAN> for the Burning
Trees"<BR></FONT></DIV><BR>Doctors can be wrong. That is why they call it practicing medicine and why a second opinion is often called for.<BR>Roger<BR>-----Original message-----<BR>From: Donovan Arnold <A href="mailto:donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com">donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com</A><BR>Date: Mon, 09 Jul 2012 00:44:49 -0700<BR>To: Paul Rumelhart <A href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</A>, Joe Campbell <A href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</A><BR>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy: "Media Miss <SPAN id=misspell-5 class=mark>theForest</SPAN> for the Burning Trees"<BR><BR>> As a <SPAN id=misspell-6 class=mark>CNA</SPAN>, I find that story hard to believe. The amount of insulin given is not a guessing game. The number of units given are by a doctor's
prescription and a sliding scale based on their blood glucose reading. Any medical staff that doesn't give that amount or observes that amount given is subject to a lawsuit and loss of their license or certification, regardless of what a spouse or patient insists upon giving or getting. <BR>> <BR>> Doctors may be wrong about the facts, they may not have all the information or disbelieve a patients testimony, but they know a great deal more of what to do based on the facts. That is why they have a license to practice medicine. <BR>> <BR>> Also, when you second guess your doctor, you can do a great deal of harm to yourself. <BR>> <BR>> Donovan J. Arnold<BR>> From: Paul Rumelhart <<A href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</A>><BR>> To: Joe Campbell <<A href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com"
ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</A>> <BR>> Cc: "<A href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A>" <<A href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A>> <BR>> Sent: Monday, July 9, 2012 12:42 AM<BR>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy: "Media Miss the Forest for the Burning Trees"<BR>> <BR>> "If your doctor tells you something, and 90% of the other doctors say <BR>> the same thing, yet Paul tells you something different, whom do you <BR>> believe? Paul? Because medicine is uncertain?"<BR>> <BR>> Wouldn't that depend greatly on exactly why I claim that the doctors are <BR>> wrong? While you will go on believing your doctor is infallible, maybe <BR>> Roger will actually evaluate what I have to say and bring it up with his <BR>> doctor next time
he sees him or her?<BR>> <BR>> Always assuming the experts know best can be dangerous, too.<BR>> <BR>> Case in point: my mom was a Type I diabetic (she completely lost the <BR>> ability to make insulin at age 17) and was in the hospital often for <BR>> diabetes-related problems. There were plenty of times where if my dad <BR>> hadn't been watching closely, the medical staff might have done <BR>> something dangerous. Usually having to do with how much insulin to give <BR>> her via her insulin pump. Too little, and she can go unconscious and <BR>> die, too much can cause a sordid list of problems from organ damage to <BR>> <SPAN id=misspell-8 class=mark>neuropathy</SPAN>. It made sense, my dad was used to working with my mom to <BR>> estimate how much of a basal rate was needed and how much to give as an <BR>> extra amount to counteract what she just ate (her "bolus" amount). The
<BR>> doctors and nurses that worked with my mom regularly learned to defer to <BR>> my dad's judgment on her insulin dosages. I became pretty good at it, <BR>> too. Blind trust in medical authority might have killed my mother long <BR>> before she actually died. Diabetes is a horrible disease.<BR>> <BR>> Perhaps that's where I learned to be skeptical of even expert opinion.<BR>> <BR>> Paul<BR>> <BR>> On 07/08/2012 11:05 PM, Joe Campbell wrote:<BR>> > <SPAN id=misspell-9 class=mark>Ok</SPAN> Roger. You owe me $100. Don't be too hard on me. After all, I'm just a skeptic. Whether you owe it to me is subject to debate, at least according to me. If you're a critical thinker, you'll pay up. So pay up.<BR>> ><BR>> > These arguments don't work on debt, and there is no reason to think they work on the environment either. What matters is the evidence. My point is, in most cases non-scientists are
not in a position to say. I won't care what Paul says about this issue until he publishes a paper on the topic in a peer-reviewed journal. You can believe what you wish.<BR>> ><BR>> > If your doctor tells you something, and 90% of the other doctors say the same thing, yet Paul tells you something different, whom do you believe? Paul? Because medicine is uncertain?<BR>> ><BR>> > Nonsense. You trust the doctors because they are the experts. What makes climate science different?<BR>> ><BR>> > Joe<BR>> ><BR>> > On Jul 8, 2012, at 9:36 PM, lfalen <<A href="mailto:lfalen@turbonet.com" ymailto="mailto:lfalen@turbonet.com">lfalen@turbonet.com</A>> wrote:<BR>> ><BR>> >> You guys are being too hard on Paul. While there is climate change, the full effects and causes are subject to debate and critical review. You tout critical thinking. That is all Paul is doing. To blandly accept every thing that
is put out by Climate Scientists is not engaging in critical thinking.<BR>> >> Roger<BR>> >> -----Original message-----<BR>> >> From: Joe Campbell <A href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</A><BR>> >> Date: Sun, 08 Jul 2012 17:49:43 -0700<BR>> >> To: Paul Rumelhart <A href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</A><BR>> >> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy: "Media Miss the Forest for the Burning Trees"<BR>> >><BR>> >>> I'm not criticizing criticism and debate. I'm criticizing you; we're debating. I'll respond to the longer post later. Joe<BR>> >>><BR>> >>><BR>> >>><BR>> >>> On Jul 8, 2012, at 4:40 PM, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter@yahoocom> wrote:<BR>> >>><BR>>
>>>> Does "validly express <SPAN id=misspell-13 class=mark>one's</SPAN> positions on the findings of science" equate to "conform to the scientific consensus"? Is there no room for criticism and debate?<BR>> >>>><BR>> >>>> Paul<BR>> >>>><BR>> >>>> On 07/08/2012 11:10 AM, Sam <SPAN id=misspell-14 class=mark>Scripter</SPAN> wrote:<BR>> >>>>> Good post, Joe!<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> I appreciate the "pains"/time/effort you take to carefully, fully explain your points about how to validly express <SPAN id=misspell-15 class=mark>one's</SPAN> position on the findings of science.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> Thank you!<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> Sam S<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> --------
Original message --------<BR>> >>>>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy: "Media Miss the Forest for the Burning Trees"<BR>> >>>>> From: Joe Campbell <<A href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</A>><BR>> >>>>> To: Paul Rumelhart <<A href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</A>><BR>> >>>>> CC: Moscow Vision 2020 <<A href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A>><BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> Two other points worth making.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> First, you would come off as something other than a spokesman for a<BR>> >>>>> radical, ill-informed, politically
motivated position if your<BR>> >>>>> criticisms went both ways. You like to point out "flaws" in climate<BR>> >>>>> science. But are there no flaws in the arguments of their detractors?<BR>> >>>>> No fallacies, no prejudices, no false reports, no political<BR>> >>>>> motivations? Doubtful.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> Second, in your initial post, at the bottom of this one, you list<BR>> >>>>> several complaints about the political motivations lurking behind<BR>> >>>>> climate science. But this makes it seem as if climate science is<BR>> >>>>> somehow separated from the rest of science and the academy and nothing<BR>> >>>>> can be further from the truth.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> At <SPAN id=misspell-17 class=mark>WSU</SPAN>, climate scientists work
within the School of Earth and<BR>> >>>>> Environmental Sciences (SEES), which is made up of scientists from a<BR>> >>>>> multitude of disciplines such as geology, geochemistry, ecology,<BR>> >>>>> hydrology, microbiology, and marine biology. Were you to poll these<BR>> >>>>> folks -- indeed, were you to poll scientists in general -- you'd find<BR>> >>>>> that there is an overwhelming consensus among them about the impact of<BR>> >>>>> human behavior on global warming. Thus, if we are to believe your<BR>> >>>>> reports of bias among climate scientists, the conspiracy would be more<BR>> >>>>> widespread than you suggest, involving not just climate scientists but<BR>> >>>>> the entire scientific community, perhaps all of the academy. In the<BR>> >>>>> end, we're left with a
fairytale conspiracy theory that is<BR>> >>>>> preposterous and unbelievable.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> Just to note one example, you constantly complain about problems with<BR>> >>>>> computer models when making large-scale claims about global climate<BR>> >>>>> change but did you know that these models are used in other areas of<BR>> >>>>> science as well? A quick scan of some of the research interests of<BR>> >>>>> members of SEES makes the point. One professor's "research uses<BR>> >>>>> computer simulation models to help us understand the recent problems<BR>> >>>>> in the electric power industry." Another "combines field measurements<BR>> >>>>> with theoretical models and computer simulations to shed light on<BR>> >>>>> natural water flows, mixing, and
sediment transport." This is research<BR>> >>>>> that is funded by competitive national grants and provides information<BR>> >>>>> that is actually used to solve real-world problems. Why not<BR>> >>>>> investigate whether or not your worries about computer models apply to<BR>> >>>>> these areas of research as well? The flip-side is, don't you think<BR>> >>>>> that these scientists would all be standing up on their soapboxes<BR>> >>>>> deriding the claims of climate scientists if their work were as biased<BR>> >>>>> and fallacious as you contend that it is? Don't you think they'd want<BR>> >>>>> to separate their research from the disreputable research of climate<BR>> >>>>> scientists if that work were as questionable as you contend? Again, if<BR>> >>>>> we are to believe any
of your claims, the political conspiracy would<BR>> >>>>> be very wide, so wide as to involve the whole of the academy.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> As the Director of the School of Politics, Philosophy, and Public<BR>> >>>>> Affairs, I have a keen interest in the connections between science,<BR>> >>>>> ethics, and policy: How can we take the information that science<BR>> >>>>> provides and apply it to the real world in a way that is beneficial to<BR>> >>>>> humanity and the universe in general? Last year we started a series of<BR>> >>>>> lectures in an attempt to help the general public better understand<BR>> >>>>> complex issues like global warming, bringing together experts from a<BR>> >>>>> variety of fields for public forums at least once a semester. Last<BR>>
>>>>> spring we brought in Andrew Light, a Senior Fellow at the Center for<BR>> >>>>> American Progress, and formed a panel discussion with representatives<BR>> >>>>> from biochemistry, sociology, and philosophy to provide information on<BR>> >>>>> this very topic. After brief presentations from the panelists, there<BR>> >>>>> was a Q&A where folks were allowed to ask questions and voice concerns<BR>> >>>>> about these matters. I advertised this on Vision 2020. This is not the<BR>> >>>>> behavior of people who have an agenda that they want to trick you into<BR>> >>>>> believing.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> This year we promise to have more events. I'm in the process of<BR>> >>>>> organizing a conference on <SPAN id=misspell-18 class=mark>neurophilosophy</SPAN>,
investigating the impact<BR>> >>>>> of neuroscience on such areas as ethics and the law, and we're also<BR>> >>>>> inviting Allen Buchanan, James B. Duke Professor of Philosophy at Duke<BR>> >>>>> University, who will likely give a talk on bioethics. I'll continue to<BR>> >>>>> advertise these events on Vision 2020 and I encourage you and others<BR>> >>>>> to attend. In general, I encourage you, Paul, to seek out local<BR>> >>>>> presentations by climate scientists -- I've helped organize at least 3<BR>> >>>>> such events over the last 3 years -- and to ask questions directly to<BR>> >>>>> the scientists themselves and see if they might be able to respond to<BR>> >>>>> your concerns. In other words, instead of voicing your concerns to a<BR>> >>>>> group with no expertise that
is unable to evaluate the merits of your<BR>> >>>>> claims, take them to the climate scientists themselves and see what<BR>> >>>>> they say. And do it in a public venue. That way, folks would be able<BR>> >>>>> to here both sides of the issue and make a more informed decision.<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> Best, Joe<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> On Sat, Jul 7, 2012 at 10:21 PM, Paul Rumelhart <<A href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</A>> wrote:<BR>> >>>>>> Can I assume you have credentials in climate science? Because, otherwise,<BR>> >>>>>> you are being hypocritical in calling me out for "degrading" the<BR>> >>>>>> conversation because of my lack of the same.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>>
>>>>>> Perhaps I'm missing some fundamental knowledge of how arguments work.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Paul<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> ________________________________<BR>> >>>>>> From: Ted <SPAN id=misspell-20 class=mark>Moffett</SPAN> <<A href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" ymailto="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</A>><BR>> >>>>>> To: Joe Campbell <<A href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</A>><BR>> >>>>>> Cc: Moscow Vision 2020 <<A href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A>><BR>> >>>>>> Sent: Saturday, July 7, 2012 2:03 PM<BR>> >>>>>> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy:
"Media Miss the<BR>> >>>>>> Forest for the Burning Trees"<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Thanks for these comments phrased in a manner so easy to understand, coming<BR>> >>>>>> from someone who could write at a level that would be obtuse for many.. I'm<BR>> >>>>>> reminded of the writing style of philosopher Bertrand Russell<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> When in a dialog someone of a significant level of education and<BR>> >>>>>> intelligence repeatedly refuses to admit when it is pointed out that they<BR>> >>>>>> have engaged in significant omissions, errors and misrepresentations<BR>> >>>>>> regarding a critical scientific field, and promotes what can be easily<BR>> >>>>>> determined by most anyone doing cursory research of scientific
peer review,<BR>> >>>>>> to be junk science, as though we are supposed to take it seriously, this<BR>> >>>>>> implies a factual and/or argumentative filter at work, for whatever reason<BR>> >>>>>> or reasons. Call it a indication of an "agenda," or who knows what it is!<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Maybe there is still some social value to such a degraded dialog, but it<BR>> >>>>>> ceases to offer significant credible factual or augmentative input of<BR>> >>>>>> interest for someone who reaches a certain level of competency in exploring<BR>> >>>>>> the scientific field involved.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> On the issue of complexity as an argument for a high degree of skepticism<BR>> >>>>>> about the claims of a given field of
knowledge, the human brain/mind is<BR>> >>>>>> claimed by some to be the most complex object in the known universe,<BR>> >>>>>> therefore we should engage in a high degree of skepticism about any claims<BR>> >>>>>> by anyone about any ones state of "mind," whether scientific claims or other<BR>> >>>>>> sorts. It amazes me that people make such simple and easy <SPAN id=misspell-21 class=mark>judgements</SPAN> about<BR>> >>>>>> each others state of mind, given that such propositions to be credible<BR>> >>>>>> should only be made by those with <SPAN id=misspell-22 class=mark>PhDs</SPAN> in a psychology or perhaps<BR>> >>>>>> neurobiology related field, and even these <SPAN id=misspell-23 class=mark>judgements</SPAN> it can be argued are<BR>> >>>>>> very open to question, assuming a
vast complexity is underpinning each<BR>> >>>>>> humans state of mind.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Consider this dialog with <SPAN id=misspell-24 class=mark>neuroscientist</SPAN> Michael <SPAN id=misspell-25 class=mark>Gazzaniga</SPAN>:<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> ALAN <SPAN id=misspell-26 class=mark>ALDA</SPAN> INTERVIEWS MICHAEL <SPAN id=misspell-27 class=mark>GAZZANIGA</SPAN><BR>> >>>>>> Featured on "The Man with Two Brains,"<BR>> >>>>>> from the SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN FRONTIERS special "Pieces of Mind."<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> <A href="http://www.longwood.k12.ny.us/lhs/science/mos/mind/algazzin.htm" target=_blank>http://www.longwood.k12.ny.us/lhs/science/mos/mind/algazzin.htm</A><BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Alan <SPAN id=misspell-28
class=mark>Alda</SPAN>:<BR>> >>>>>> I have to say - and from talking to you I think you feel this way, too -<BR>> >>>>>> consciousness is a terrific thing to have. It feels good to have<BR>> >>>>>> consciousness. When you lose consciousness and when you sense you're going<BR>> >>>>>> to lose consciousness, it doesn't feel good. You get a little nervous about<BR>> >>>>>> that. But what do you suppose is the reason we have consciousness? Why has<BR>> >>>>>> it persisted? What good is it in terms of the survival of the species?<BR>> >>>>>> Michael <SPAN id=misspell-29 class=mark>Gazzaniga</SPAN>:<BR>> >>>>>> That's related to the $64,000 question. What's it for? If you want to<BR>> >>>>>> understand anything, you've got to know what it's for. And it so permeates<BR>>
>>>>>> every thought we have, you think, well, it's for keeping us motivated, to<BR>> >>>>>> have these thoughts, or whatever. But you start to put this stuff down on<BR>> >>>>>> paper and it just doesn't look like you're saying much<BR>> >>>>>> You know, there's a bunch of philosophers now who are saying, "A human<BR>> >>>>>> trying to understand consciousness is like a nematode trying to understand a<BR>> >>>>>> dog." It's just too big a problem, and they kind of toss it out the window.<BR>> >>>>>> Well I don't think we should do that. Clearly, it's going to take a lot of<BR>> >>>>>> major new thinking to really give us an insight, a handle on how we can<BR>> >>>>>> scientifically talk about this phenomenal awareness that we all experience.<BR>>
>>>>>> -------------------------------------------<BR>> >>>>>> Vision2020 Post: Ted <SPAN id=misspell-30 class=mark>Moffett</SPAN><BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> On Thu, Jul 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM, Joe Campbell <<A href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com" ymailto="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</A>><BR>> >>>>>> wrote:<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> I'm making claims about your arguments and<BR>> >>>>>> when it comes to judgments about the strengths and weaknesses of<BR>> >>>>>> arguments -- the area of logic and the broader area of epistemology --<BR>> >>>>>> there is NO ONE living on the <SPAN id=misspell-31 class=mark>Palouse</SPAN> who is more qualified than I am<BR>> >>>>>> (although there are a few people who
are as qualified).<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Paul,<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Thanks for helping me to make my case!<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> The point is that you DON'T believe that smoking causes lung cancer on<BR>> >>>>>> the basis of scientific evidence that you understand and evaluate,<BR>> >>>>>> because you are not a scientist. You believe it because it is "common<BR>> >>>>>> sense" (which is irrelevant, for it merely boils down to the fact that<BR>> >>>>>> it seems to you to be true) and because the experts tell you it is<BR>> >>>>>> true. You still haven't shown a difference between the case of smoking<BR>> >>>>>> and human carbon consumption. Let's look more closely at some of the<BR>>
>>>>>> BAD arguments you give below for the supposed difference.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Two clarifications first. My point was that unless you are an actual<BR>> >>>>>> scientist, it is almost impossible to make judgments about scientific<BR>> >>>>>> claims on evidence alone. In most cases, understanding the evidence<BR>> >>>>>> would require a high level of expertise. This is why scientific<BR>> >>>>>> beliefs should be based on testimony, the testimony of experts in the<BR>> >>>>>> field My general claim was that there is NO basis to dismiss one set<BR>> >>>>>> of scientists (climate scientists, say) yet not dismiss others as<BR>> >>>>>> well. In my previous post, I happened to mention scientists who<BR>> >>>>>> specialize in
lung cancer research but below I mention others since<BR>> >>>>>> they are helpful in showing flaws in your reasoning.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Also, you might wonder how I'm qualified to speak about such matters,<BR>> >>>>>> given that I'm not a climate scientist either. But I'm not making any<BR>> >>>>>> claims about the climate. I just trust what the climate scientists<BR>> >>>>>> tell me for reasons given. I'm making claims about your arguments and<BR>> >>>>>> when it comes to judgments about the strengths and weaknesses of<BR>> >>>>>> arguments -- the area of logic and the broader area of epistemology --<BR>> >>>>>> there is NO ONE living on the <SPAN id=misspell-32 class=mark>Palouse</SPAN> who is more qualified than I am<BR>> >>>>>>
(although there are a few people who are as qualified).<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> The points in (1) are irrelevant and were addressed above. In the<BR>> >>>>>> 1950s smoking seemed to be a healthy activity and was promoted as<BR>> >>>>>> such. Common sense turned out to be wrong. Common sense is never a<BR>> >>>>>> reason for holding scientific beliefs.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> <SPAN id=misspell-33 class=mark>Wrt</SPAN> (2), I'd be willing to bet that there are climate scientists<BR>> >>>>>> working on these very questions. In any event, I'm not sure what<BR>> >>>>>> evidence you have to say otherwise. I tend to leave it to scientists<BR>> >>>>>> to determine what kinds of studies they should or shouldn't be<BR>> >>>>>> concerned
with in order to support their claims. Since you are not a<BR>> >>>>>> scientist, these points are meaningless.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> For point (3), it is true that the climate is complex. But the<BR>> >>>>>> universe is even MORE complex. To the extent that this gives you a<BR>> >>>>>> reason to dismiss climate science it should give you EVEN MORE reason<BR>> >>>>>> to dismiss all of physics for both the micro-level of the universe and<BR>> >>>>>> the macro-level of the universe are FAR MORE complex than the earth's<BR>> >>>>>> climate. This is just a general skeptical argument that applies to<BR>> >>>>>> almost ANY area of science. Why accept it <SPAN id=misspell-34 class=mark>wrt</SPAN> climate science but not,<BR>> >>>>>> say, cosmology? Why
believe anything that Stephen Hawking says, for<BR>> >>>>>> instance? Do you know how much MORE complicated the whole <SPAN id=misspell-35 class=mark>frickin</SPAN>'<BR>> >>>>>> universe is when compared with the earth's climate? This is an absurd,<BR>> >>>>>> BAD, and irresponsible argument.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> I've responded to arguments like those in (4) and (5) before but it<BR>> >>>>>> hasn't seemed to sink in yet. Whether or not a scientist has an agenda<BR>> >>>>>> is IRRELEVANT. What matters is the EVIDENCE he or she has in support<BR>> >>>>>> of the claims made. Suppose you find out that 99% of scientists who<BR>> >>>>>> study the links between smoking and lung cancer went into the field<BR>> >>>>>> for emotional and irrational
reasons -- suppose, say, that members of<BR>> >>>>>> their family died of lung cancer. That would be irrelevant and<BR>> >>>>>> shouldn't cause you to dismiss their findings. ALL that is relevant is<BR>> >>>>>> the epistemological quality of the evidence, which can be judged in<BR>> >>>>>> objective ways.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> If your argument were sound, it should give people reason to dismiss<BR>> >>>>>> EVERYTHING you say because you clearly have an agenda. You can't tell<BR>> >>>>>> me that your concern with the issue of global warming is independent<BR>> >>>>>> of your political views or your personal habits, that it is solely<BR>> >>>>>> motivated by the desire for objective truth and nothing more. This<BR>> >>>>>>
very argument undermines everything you say on Vision 2020 since all<BR>> >>>>>> of it is in keeping with your own political viewpoints, or "agenda."<BR>> >>>>>> But people shouldn't dismiss your views merely because you happen to<BR>> >>>>>> be interested in politics. They should judge your views on the basis<BR>> >>>>>> of the evidence you provide in support of the claims that you make.<BR>> >>>>>> They shouldn't make sweeping generalizations about your claims either;<BR>> >>>>>> they should evaluate each argument individually.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> If your argument were sound, we should dismiss ALL sciences related to<BR>> >>>>>> human heath, since they are all motivated by the subjective desire to<BR>> >>>>>> help human beings extend their
lives and improve the quality of their<BR>> >>>>>> lives. Likely anyone working in the area of cancer research is<BR>> >>>>>> motivated in part by the selfish desire to become THE person that<BR>> >>>>>> finds the cure for cancer. That is irrelevant. This is another general<BR>> >>>>>> skeptical argument that (if sound) should cause you to dismiss much<BR>> >>>>>> more than climate science.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> ALL scientific claims should be judged by the merits of the evidence<BR>> >>>>>> given. Personal facts about the scientists are ALWAYS IRRELEVANT.<BR>> >>>>>> People tend to choose their vocations for personal reasons, not<BR>> >>>>>> because of a desire to seek objective truth. Scientists are no<BR>> >>>>>>
different in this regard.<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> Best, Joe<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> On Wed, Jul 4, 2012 at 7:16 PM, Paul Rumelhart <<A href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" ymailto="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</A>> wrote:<BR>> >>>>>>> On 07/03/2012 05:42 PM, Joe Campbell wrote:<BR>> >>>>>>>> So, Paul, why believe that smoking causes lung disease if you don't<BR>> >>>>>>>> believe that human carbon consumption has an impact on global warming?<BR>> >>>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>>> Joe<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> First, I'm not saying that carbon consumption is not having an impact on<BR>> >>>>>>> global warming. I'm saying that the size of the impacts
compared to the<BR>> >>>>>>> more-or-less unknown natural factors is unknown and that the <SPAN id=misspell-37 class=mark>feedbacks</SPAN><BR>> >>>>>>> from<BR>> >>>>>>> warming in general are unknown, among other things.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> There are plenty of reasons, both scientific and not, that make me<BR>> >>>>>>> skeptical<BR>> >>>>>>> of global warming. Although everyone will assume I'm just grasping at<BR>> >>>>>>> straws because of my deep-seated urge to deny everything (probably has to<BR>> >>>>>>> do<BR>> >>>>>>> with my relationship with my mother), I humbly present a smattering of<BR>> >>>>>>> them<BR>> >>>>>>> for your enjoyment:<BR>>
>>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> 1. On the face of it, the idea is extraordinary. Humans, even with our<BR>> >>>>>>> vaunted civilization, are small potatoes compared to the forces of nature.<BR>> >>>>>>> The only reason our carbon footprint even makes a dent compared to natural<BR>> >>>>>>> forces has to do with the small amount of CO2 in our atmosphere. We've<BR>> >>>>>>> had<BR>> >>>>>>> far less of an impact on the water cycle, for example, or with oxygen<BR>> >>>>>>> levels. Not saying that it isn't possible, but there is automatically a<BR>> >>>>>>> bar<BR>> >>>>>>> that has to be gotten over which smoking causing lung disease doesn't<BR>> >>>>>>> have.<BR>>
>>>>>>> It should be common sense that inhaling smoke multiple times a day for<BR>> >>>>>>> years<BR>> >>>>>>> can have a deleterious effect on the lungs, even without bringing in<BR>> >>>>>>> carcinogens.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> 2. There are some obvious questions that aren't being answered because of<BR>> >>>>>>> the focus on human impacts. For example, what caused the earth to heat up<BR>> >>>>>>> immediately following the Little Ice Age? If we do not know, how can we<BR>> >>>>>>> say<BR>> >>>>>>> with any confidence that human-induced climate change is to blame instead<BR>> >>>>>>> of<BR>> >>>>>>> the same natural processes still at work? What
causes an ice age to<BR>> >>>>>>> start,<BR>> >>>>>>> and what brings us out of one?<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> 3. The climate is complex, with multiple <SPAN id=misspell-38 class=mark>feedbacks</SPAN> of unknown strength<BR>> >>>>>>> and<BR>> >>>>>>> unknown <SPAN id=misspell-39 class=mark>feedbacks</SPAN> of unknown strength. The sign of the combination of<BR>> >>>>>>> <SPAN id=misspell-40 class=mark>feedbacks</SPAN> isn't even known. Climate models cannot be that accurate, given<BR>> >>>>>>> the above, yet they are seen as gospel. Even when they make different<BR>> >>>>>>> assumptions and model things different ways. As long as they project a<BR>> >>>>>>> warmer future, they are added
to the model average and used as proof that<BR>> >>>>>>> global warming will kill babies and cause frogs to rain from the sky.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> I imagine that the mechanisms for lung disease from tobacco are relatively<BR>> >>>>>>> straight forward.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> 4. Some of the major players in the spotlight on the side of global<BR>> >>>>>>> warming<BR>> >>>>>>> are environmental activists with an agenda, as opposed to being objective<BR>> >>>>>>> scientists just following the data For example, Timothy <SPAN id=misspell-41 class=mark>Wirth</SPAN> (Senator<BR>> >>>>>>> from Colorado and leader of the negotiating team for the Kyoto treaty)<BR>> >>>>>>>
held<BR>> >>>>>>> a hearing on global warming at the capital. He called the Weather Bureau<BR>> >>>>>>> to<BR>> >>>>>>> find out what day of the year was usually the hottest in DC, and scheduled<BR>> >>>>>>> the hearing for that date. His team then went in the night before the<BR>> >>>>>>> hearing and opened all the windows in the room in which the hearing was to<BR>> >>>>>>> be held, causing the air conditioning to fail to keep up with the heat>> >> All<BR>> >>>>>>> so that it could be hot and muggy when James Hansen gave his spiel about<BR>> >>>>>>> the<BR>> >>>>>>> dangers of global warming.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> (<A
href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/wirth.html" target=_blank>http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/wirth.html</A>)<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> The anti-tobacco campaigns, with all their sheer propaganda, do seem to be<BR>> >>>>>>> run by political activists, but that may be coincidental.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> 5. Major climate scientists also appear to have political agendas.<BR>> >>>>>>> Michael<BR>> >>>>>>> Mann and his "hockey stick" come to mind, trying to erase the Medieval<BR>> >>>>>>> Warm<BR>> >>>>>>> Period and the Little Ice Age, using dubious statistics, all so they could<BR>> >>>>>>> show that current warming was "unprecedented". All this
from a few<BR>> >>>>>>> <SPAN id=misspell-42 class=mark>bristlecone</SPAN> pine trees.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> I haven't heard of any of these kinds of shenanigans from scientists<BR>> >>>>>>> studying the link between tobacco use and lung diseases, probably because<BR>> >>>>>>> the links were relatively straight forward. Not so much the case with<BR>> >>>>>>> global warming / global climate change / global climate disruption.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>> There are more, but that gives you the gist of it. But hey, it's just me<BR>> >>>>>>> being <SPAN id=misspell-43 class=mark>contrarian</SPAN>, right? So please, move along. Nothing to see here.<BR>> >>>>>>><BR>> >>>>>>>
Paul<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>>> =======================================================<BR>> >>>>>> List services made available by First Step Internet,<BR>> >>>>>> serving the communities of the <SPAN id=misspell-44 class=mark>Palouse</SPAN> since 1994.<BR>> >>>>>> <A href="http://www.fsr.net/" target=_blank>http://www.fsr.net/</A><BR>> >>>>>> <SPAN id=misspell-45 class=mark>mailto</SPAN>:<A href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>> >>>>>> =======================================================<BR>> >>>>>><BR>> >>>>> =======================================================<BR>>
>>>>> List services made available by First Step Internet,<BR>> >>>>> serving the communities of the <SPAN id=misspell-46 class=mark>Palouse</SPAN> since 1994.<BR>> >>>>> <A href="http://www.fsr.net/" target=_blank>http://www.fsr.net/</A><BR>> >>>>> <SPAN id=misspell-47 class=mark>mailto</SPAN>:<A href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>> >>>>> =======================================================<BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>><BR>> >>>>> =======================================================<BR>> >>>>> List services made available by First Step Internet,<BR>> >>>>> serving the communities of the <SPAN id=misspell-48
class=mark>Palouse</SPAN> since 1994.<BR>> >>>>> <A href="http://www.fsr.net/" target=_blank>http://www.fsr.net/</A><BR>> >>>>> <SPAN id=misspell-49 class=mark>mailto</SPAN>:<A href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>> >>>>> =======================================================<BR>> >>>><BR>> >>><BR>> <BR>> <BR>> =======================================================<BR>> List services made available by First Step Internet,<BR>> serving the communities of the <SPAN id=misspell-50 class=mark>Palouse</SPAN> since 1994.<BR>> <A href="http://www.fsr.net/" target=_blank>http://www.fsr.net/</A><BR>> <SPAN id=misspell-51
class=mark>mailto</SPAN>:<A href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com" ymailto="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>> =======================================================<BR>> <BR><BR><BR></DIV></DIV></div></body></html>