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So the only room for criticism is in criticizing me for
criticizing climate science? :) <br>
<br>
Paul<br>
<br>
On 07/08/2012 05:49 PM, Joe Campbell wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote
cite="mid:6C843273-C857-4003-89DF-E06A1971A8A2@gmail.com"
type="cite">
<div>I'm not criticizing criticism and debate. I'm criticizing
you; we're debating. I'll respond to the longer post later. Joe<br>
<br>
<br>
</div>
<div><br>
On Jul 8, 2012, at 4:40 PM, Paul Rumelhart <<a
moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
<br>
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Does "validly express one's positions on the findings of
science" equate to "conform to the scientific consensus"?
Is there no room for criticism and debate?<br>
<br>
Paul<br>
<br>
On 07/08/2012 11:10 AM, Sam Scripter wrote:<br>
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cite="mid:updxoim8n1f6q2uc2d6nu70r.1341771052643@email.android.com"
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Good post, Joe!
<div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>I appreciate the "pains"/time/effort you take to
carefully, fully explain your points about how to
validly express one's position on the findings of
science.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Thank you!</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Sam S</div>
</div>
<br>
<br>
<br>
-------- Original message --------<br>
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public Accuracy:
"Media Miss the Forest for the Burning Trees" <br>
From: Joe Campbell <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com"><philosopher.joe@gmail.com></a>
<br>
To: Paul Rumelhart <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com"><godshatter@yahoo.com></a>
<br>
CC: Moscow Vision 2020 <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com"><vision2020@moscow.com></a>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<div style="word-break:break-all;">Two other points worth
making.<br>
<br>
First, you would come off as something other than a
spokesman for a<br>
radical, ill-informed, politically motivated position if
your<br>
criticisms went both ways. You like to point out "flaws"
in climate<br>
science. But are there no flaws in the arguments of their
detractors?<br>
No fallacies, no prejudices, no false reports, no
political<br>
motivations? Doubtful.<br>
<br>
Second, in your initial post, at the bottom of this one,
you list<br>
several complaints about the political motivations lurking
behind<br>
climate science. But this makes it seem as if climate
science is<br>
somehow separated from the rest of science and the academy
and nothing<br>
can be further from the truth.<br>
<br>
At WSU, climate scientists work within the School of Earth
and<br>
Environmental Sciences (SEES), which is made up of
scientists from a<br>
multitude of disciplines such as geology, geochemistry,
ecology,<br>
hydrology, microbiology, and marine biology. Were you to
poll these<br>
folks -- indeed, were you to poll scientists in general --
you'd find<br>
that there is an overwhelming consensus among them about
the impact of<br>
human behavior on global warming. Thus, if we are to
believe your<br>
reports of bias among climate scientists, the conspiracy
would be more<br>
widespread than you suggest, involving not just climate
scientists but<br>
the entire scientific community, perhaps all of the
academy. In the<br>
end, we're left with a fairytale conspiracy theory that is<br>
preposterous and unbelievable.<br>
<br>
Just to note one example, you constantly complain about
problems with<br>
computer models when making large-scale claims about
global climate<br>
change but did you know that these models are used in
other areas of<br>
science as well? A quick scan of some of the research
interests of<br>
members of SEES makes the point. One professor's "research
uses<br>
computer simulation models to help us understand the
recent problems<br>
in the electric power industry." Another "combines field
measurements<br>
with theoretical models and computer simulations to shed
light on<br>
natural water flows, mixing, and sediment transport." This
is research<br>
that is funded by competitive national grants and provides
information<br>
that is actually used to solve real-world problems. Why
not<br>
investigate whether or not your worries about computer
models apply to<br>
these areas of research as well? The flip-side is, don't
you think<br>
that these scientists would all be standing up on their
soapboxes<br>
deriding the claims of climate scientists if their work
were as biased<br>
and fallacious as you contend that it is? Don't you think
they'd want<br>
to separate their research from the disreputable research
of climate<br>
scientists if that work were as questionable as you
contend? Again, if<br>
we are to believe any of your claims, the political
conspiracy would<br>
be very wide, so wide as to involve the whole of the
academy.<br>
<br>
As the Director of the School of Politics, Philosophy, and
Public<br>
Affairs, I have a keen interest in the connections between
science,<br>
ethics, and policy: How can we take the information that
science<br>
provides and apply it to the real world in a way that is
beneficial to<br>
humanity and the universe in general? Last year we started
a series of<br>
lectures in an attempt to help the general public better
understand<br>
complex issues like global warming, bringing together
experts from a<br>
variety of fields for public forums at least once a
semester. Last<br>
spring we brought in Andrew Light, a Senior Fellow at the
Center for<br>
American Progress, and formed a panel discussion with
representatives<br>
from biochemistry, sociology, and philosophy to provide
information on<br>
this very topic. After brief presentations from the
panelists, there<br>
was a Q&A where folks were allowed to ask questions
and voice concerns<br>
about these matters. I advertised this on Vision 2020.
This is not the<br>
behavior of people who have an agenda that they want to
trick you into<br>
believing.<br>
<br>
This year we promise to have more events. I'm in the
process of<br>
organizing a conference on neurophilosophy, investigating
the impact<br>
of neuroscience on such areas as ethics and the law, and
we're also<br>
inviting Allen Buchanan, James B. Duke Professor of
Philosophy at Duke<br>
University, who will likely give a talk on bioethics. I'll
continue to<br>
advertise these events on Vision 2020 and I encourage you
and others<br>
to attend. In general, I encourage you, Paul, to seek out
local<br>
presentations by climate scientists -- I've helped
organize at least 3<br>
such events over the last 3 years -- and to ask questions
directly to<br>
the scientists themselves and see if they might be able to
respond to<br>
your concerns. In other words, instead of voicing your
concerns to a<br>
group with no expertise that is unable to evaluate the
merits of your<br>
claims, take them to the climate scientists themselves and
see what<br>
they say. And do it in a public venue. That way, folks
would be able<br>
to here both sides of the issue and make a more informed
decision.<br>
<br>
Best, Joe<br>
<br>
On Sat, Jul 7, 2012 at 10:21 PM, Paul Rumelhart <a
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com"><godshatter@yahoo.com></a>
wrote:<br>
> Can I assume you have credentials in climate
science? Because, otherwise,<br>
> you are being hypocritical in calling me out for
"degrading" the<br>
> conversation because of my lack of the same.<br>
><br>
> Perhaps I'm missing some fundamental knowledge of how
arguments work.<br>
><br>
> Paul<br>
><br>
> ________________________________<br>
> From: Ted Moffett <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com"><starbliss@gmail.com></a><br>
> To: Joe Campbell <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com"><philosopher.joe@gmail.com></a><br>
> Cc: Moscow Vision 2020 <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com"><vision2020@moscow.com></a><br>
> Sent: Saturday, July 7, 2012 2:03 PM<br>
> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Institute for Public
Accuracy: "Media Miss the<br>
> Forest for the Burning Trees"<br>
><br>
> Thanks for these comments phrased in a manner so easy
to understand, coming<br>
> from someone who could write at a level that would be
obtuse for many... I'm<br>
> reminded of the writing style of philosopher Bertrand
Russell<br>
><br>
> When in a dialog someone of a significant level of
education and<br>
> intelligence repeatedly refuses to admit when it is
pointed out that they<br>
> have engaged in significant omissions, errors and
misrepresentations<br>
> regarding a critical scientific field, and promotes
what can be easily<br>
> determined by most anyone doing cursory research of
scientific peer review,<br>
> to be junk science, as though we are supposed to take
it seriously, this<br>
> implies a factual and/or argumentative filter at
work, for whatever reason<br>
> or reasons. Call it a indication of an "agenda," or
who knows what it is!<br>
><br>
> Maybe there is still some social value to such a
degraded dialog, but it<br>
> ceases to offer significant credible factual or
augmentative input of<br>
> interest for someone who reaches a certain level of
competency in exploring<br>
> the scientific field involved.<br>
><br>
> On the issue of complexity as an argument for a high
degree of skepticism<br>
> about the claims of a given field of knowledge, the
human brain/mind is<br>
> claimed by some to be the most complex object in the
known universe,<br>
> therefore we should engage in a high degree of
skepticism about any claims<br>
> by anyone about any ones state of "mind," whether
scientific claims or other<br>
> sorts. It amazes me that people make such simple and
easy judgements about<br>
> each others state of mind, given that such
propositions to be credible<br>
> should only be made by those with PhDs in a
psychology or perhaps<br>
> neurobiology related field, and even these judgements
it can be argued are<br>
> very open to question, assuming a vast complexity is
underpinning each<br>
> humans state of mind.<br>
><br>
> Consider this dialog with neuroscientist Michael
Gazzaniga:<br>
><br>
> ALAN ALDA INTERVIEWS MICHAEL GAZZANIGA<br>
> Featured on "The Man with Two Brains,"<br>
> from the SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN FRONTIERS special
"Pieces of Mind."<br>
><br>
> <a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.longwood.k12.ny.us/lhs/science/mos/mind/algazzin.htm">http://www.longwood.k12.ny.us/lhs/science/mos/mind/algazzin.htm</a><br>
><br>
> Alan Alda:<br>
> I have to say - and from talking to you I think you
feel this way, too -<br>
> consciousness is a terrific thing to have. It feels
good to have<br>
> consciousness. When you lose consciousness and when
you sense you're going<br>
> to lose consciousness, it doesn't feel good. You get
a little nervous about<br>
> that. But what do you suppose is the reason we have
consciousness? Why has<br>
> it persisted? What good is it in terms of the
survival of the species?<br>
> Michael Gazzaniga:<br>
> That's related to the $64,000 question. What's it
for? If you want to<br>
> understand anything, you've got to know what it's
for. And it so permeates<br>
> every thought we have, you think, well, it's for
keeping us motivated, to<br>
> have these thoughts, or whatever. But you start to
put this stuff down on<br>
> paper and it just doesn't look like you're saying
much.<br>
> You know, there's a bunch of philosophers now who are
saying, "A human<br>
> trying to understand consciousness is like a nematode
trying to understand a<br>
> dog." It's just too big a problem, and they kind of
toss it out the window.<br>
> Well I don't think we should do that. Clearly, it's
going to take a lot of<br>
> major new thinking to really give us an insight, a
handle on how we can<br>
> scientifically talk about this phenomenal awareness
that we all experience.<br>
> -------------------------------------------<br>
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br>
><br>
> On Thu, Jul 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM, Joe Campbell <a
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com"><philosopher.joe@gmail.com></a><br>
> wrote:<br>
><br>
>I'm making claims about your arguments and</div>
> when it comes to judgments about the strengths and
weaknesses of<br>
> arguments -- the area of logic and the broader area of
epistemology --<br>
> there is NO ONE living on the Palouse who is more
qualified than I am<br>
> (although there are a few people who are as qualified).<br>
><br>
> Paul,<br>
><br>
> Thanks for helping me to make my case!<br>
><br>
> The point is that you DON'T believe that smoking causes
lung cancer on<br>
> the basis of scientific evidence that you understand
and evaluate,<br>
> because you are not a scientist. You believe it because
it is "common<br>
> sense" (which is irrelevant, for it merely boils down
to the fact that<br>
> it seems to you to be true) and because the experts
tell you it is<br>
> true. You still haven't shown a difference between the
case of smoking<br>
> and human carbon consumption. Let's look more closely
at some of the<br>
> BAD arguments you give below for the supposed
difference.<br>
><br>
> Two clarifications first. My point was that unless you
are an actual<br>
> scientist, it is almost impossible to make judgments
about scientific<br>
> claims on evidence alone. In most cases, understanding
the evidence<br>
> would require a high level of expertise. This is why
scientific<br>
> beliefs should be based on testimony, the testimony of
experts in the<br>
> field. My general claim was that there is NO basis to
dismiss one set<br>
> of scientists (climate scientists, say) yet not dismiss
others as<br>
> well. In my previous post, I happened to mention
scientists who<br>
> specialize in lung cancer research but below I mention
others since<br>
> they are helpful in showing flaws in your reasoning.<br>
><br>
> Also, you might wonder how I'm qualified to speak about
such matters,<br>
> given that I'm not a climate scientist either. But I'm
not making any<br>
> claims about the climate. I just trust what the climate
scientists<br>
> tell me for reasons given. I'm making claims about your
arguments and<br>
> when it comes to judgments about the strengths and
weaknesses of<br>
> arguments -- the area of logic and the broader area of
epistemology --<br>
> there is NO ONE living on the Palouse who is more
qualified than I am<br>
> (although there are a few people who are as qualified).<br>
><br>
> The points in (1) are irrelevant and were addressed
above. In the<br>
> 1950s smoking seemed to be a healthy activity and was
promoted as<br>
> such. Common sense turned out to be wrong. Common sense
is never a<br>
> reason for holding scientific beliefs.<br>
><br>
> Wrt (2), I'd be willing to bet that there are climate
scientists<br>
> working on these very questions. In any event, I'm not
sure what<br>
> evidence you have to say otherwise. I tend to leave it
to scientists<br>
> to determine what kinds of studies they should or
shouldn't be<br>
> concerned with in order to support their claims. Since
you are not a<br>
> scientist, these points are meaningless.<br>
><br>
> For point (3), it is true that the climate is complex.
But the<br>
> universe is even MORE complex. To the extent that this
gives you a<br>
> reason to dismiss climate science it should give you
EVEN MORE reason<br>
> to dismiss all of physics for both the micro-level of
the universe and<br>
> the macro-level of the universe are FAR MORE complex
than the earth's<br>
> climate. This is just a general skeptical argument that
applies to<br>
> almost ANY area of science. Why accept it wrt climate
science but not,<br>
> say, cosmology? Why believe anything that Stephen
Hawking says, for<br>
> instance? Do you know how much MORE complicated the
whole frickin'<br>
> universe is when compared with the earth's climate?
This is an absurd,<br>
> BAD, and irresponsible argument.<br>
><br>
> I've responded to arguments like those in (4) and (5)
before but it<br>
> hasn't seemed to sink in yet. Whether or not a
scientist has an agenda<br>
> is IRRELEVANT. What matters is the EVIDENCE he or she
has in support<br>
> of the claims made. Suppose you find out that 99% of
scientists who<br>
> study the links between smoking and lung cancer went
into the field<br>
> for emotional and irrational reasons -- suppose, say,
that members of<br>
> their family died of lung cancer. That would be
irrelevant and<br>
> shouldn't cause you to dismiss their findings. ALL that
is relevant is<br>
> the epistemological quality of the evidence, which can
be judged in<br>
> objective ways.<br>
><br>
> If your argument were sound, it should give people
reason to dismiss<br>
> EVERYTHING you say because you clearly have an agenda.
You can't tell<br>
> me that your concern with the issue of global warming
is independent<br>
> of your political views or your personal habits, that
it is solely<br>
> motivated by the desire for objective truth and nothing
more. This<br>
> very argument undermines everything you say on Vision
2020 since all<br>
> of it is in keeping with your own political viewpoints,
or "agenda."<br>
> But people shouldn't dismiss your views merely because
you happen to<br>
> be interested in politics. They should judge your views
on the basis<br>
> of the evidence you provide in support of the claims
that you make.<br>
> They shouldn't make sweeping generalizations about your
claims either;<br>
> they should evaluate each argument individually.<br>
><br>
> If your argument were sound, we should dismiss ALL
sciences related to<br>
> human heath, since they are all motivated by the
subjective desire to<br>
> help human beings extend their lives and improve the
quality of their<br>
> lives. Likely anyone working in the area of cancer
research is<br>
> motivated in part by the selfish desire to become THE
person that<br>
> finds the cure for cancer. That is irrelevant. This is
another general<br>
> skeptical argument that (if sound) should cause you to
dismiss much<br>
> more than climate science.<br>
><br>
> ALL scientific claims should be judged by the merits of
the evidence<br>
> given. Personal facts about the scientists are ALWAYS
IRRELEVANT.<br>
> People tend to choose their vocations for personal
reasons, not<br>
> because of a desire to seek objective truth. Scientists
are no<br>
> different in this regard.<br>
><br>
> Best, Joe<br>
><br>
> On Wed, Jul 4, 2012 at 7:16 PM, Paul Rumelhart <a
moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E"
href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com"><godshatter@yahoo.com></a>
wrote:<br>
>> On 07/03/2012 05:42 PM, Joe Campbell wrote:<br>
>>><br>
>>> So, Paul, why believe that smoking causes lung
disease if you don't<br>
>>> believe that human carbon consumption has an
impact on global warming?<br>
>>><br>
>>> Joe<br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> First, I'm not saying that carbon consumption is
not having an impact on<br>
>> global warming. I'm saying that the size of the
impacts compared to the<br>
>> more-or-less unknown natural factors is unknown and
that the feedbacks<br>
>> from<br>
>> warming in general are unknown, among other things.<br>
>><br>
>> There are plenty of reasons, both scientific and
not, that make me<br>
>> skeptical<br>
>> of global warming. Although everyone will assume
I'm just grasping at<br>
>> straws because of my deep-seated urge to deny
everything (probably has to<br>
>> do<br>
>> with my relationship with my mother), I humbly
present a smattering of<br>
>> them<br>
>> for your enjoyment:<br>
>><br>
>> 1. On the face of it, the idea is extraordinary.
Humans, even with our<br>
>> vaunted civilization, are small potatoes compared
to the forces of nature.<br>
>> The only reason our carbon footprint even makes a
dent compared to natural<br>
>> forces has to do with the small amount of CO2 in
our atmosphere. We've<br>
>> had<br>
>> far less of an impact on the water cycle, for
example, or with oxygen<br>
>> levels. Not saying that it isn't possible, but
there is automatically a<br>
>> bar<br>
>> that has to be gotten over which smoking causing
lung disease doesn't<br>
>> have.<br>
>> It should be common sense that inhaling smoke
multiple times a day for<br>
>> years<br>
>> can have a deleterious effect on the lungs, even
without bringing in<br>
>> carcinogens.<br>
>><br>
>> 2. There are some obvious questions that aren't
being answered because of<br>
>> the focus on human impacts. For example, what
caused the earth to heat up<br>
>> immediately following the Little Ice Age? If we do
not know, how can we<br>
>> say<br>
>> with any confidence that human-induced climate
change is to blame instead<br>
>> of<br>
>> the same natural processes still at work? What
causes an ice age to<br>
>> start,<br>
>> and what brings us out of one?<br>
>><br>
>> 3. The climate is complex, with multiple feedbacks
of unknown strength<br>
>> and<br>
>> unknown feedbacks of unknown strength. The sign of
the combination of<br>
>> feedbacks isn't even known. Climate models cannot
be that accurate, given<br>
>> the above, yet they are seen as gospel. Even when
they make different<br>
>> assumptions and model things different ways. As
long as they project a<br>
>> warmer future, they are added to the model average
and used as proof that<br>
>> global warming will kill babies and cause frogs to
rain from the sky.<br>
>><br>
>> I imagine that the mechanisms for lung disease from
tobacco are relatively<br>
>> straight forward.<br>
>><br>
>> 4. Some of the major players in the spotlight on
the side of global<br>
>> warming<br>
>> are environmental activists with an agenda, as
opposed to being objective<br>
>> scientists just following the data. For example,
Timothy Wirth (Senator<br>
>> from Colorado and leader of the negotiating team
for the Kyoto treaty)<br>
>> held<br>
>> a hearing on global warming at the capital. He
called the Weather Bureau<br>
>> to<br>
>> find out what day of the year was usually the
hottest in DC, and scheduled<br>
>> the hearing for that date. His team then went in
the night before the<br>
>> hearing and opened all the windows in the room in
which the hearing was to<br>
>> be held, causing the air conditioning to fail to
keep up with the heat.<br>
>> All<br>
>> so that it could be hot and muggy when James Hansen
gave his spiel about<br>
>> the<br>
>> dangers of global warming.<br>
>><br>
>>
(<a moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/wirth.html">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/hotpolitics/interviews/wirth.html</a>)<br>
>><br>
>> The anti-tobacco campaigns, with all their sheer
propaganda, do seem to be<br>
>> run by political activists, but that may be
coincidental.<br>
>><br>
>> 5. Major climate scientists also appear to have
political agendas.<br>
>> Michael<br>
>> Mann and his "hockey stick" come to mind, trying to
erase the Medieval<br>
>> Warm<br>
>> Period and the Little Ice Age, using dubious
statistics, all so they could<br>
>> show that current warming was "unprecedented". All
this from a few<br>
>> bristlecone pine trees.<br>
>><br>
>> I haven't heard of any of these kinds of
shenanigans from scientists<br>
>> studying the link between tobacco use and lung
diseases, probably because<br>
>> the links were relatively straight forward. Not so
much the case with<br>
>> global warming / global climate change / global
climate disruption.<br>
>><br>
>> There are more, but that gives you the gist of it.
But hey, it's just me<br>
>> being contrarian, right? So please, move along.
Nothing to see here.<br>
>><br>
>> Paul<br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
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serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.<br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a><br>
<a moz-do-not-send="true"
class="moz-txt-link-freetext"
href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>
=======================================================<br>
<br>
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<pre wrap="">=======================================================
List services made available by First Step Internet,
serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
<a moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a>
<a moz-do-not-send="true" class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com</a>
=======================================================</pre>
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