First, notice this is an OP/ED article.<br><br>Second, notice that Hansen presents a lot of facts, then makes predictions on that basis.<br><br>Hence, if you want to dispute his facts, do so.<br><br>If you want to dispute the probability of his conclusions based on the facts presented or alternative facts, do so.<br>
<br>However, he has a right, and perhaps even a moral obligation given the seriousness of his claim, to present warnings to the world.<br><br>Scientists do what Hansen is doing all the time, and have been do so for a long time. The most common cases are about the consequences of using various prescription drugs, OTC drugs, and nutrients, medical devices, fillings, medical procedures, etc.<br>
<br>All scientific theories are probabilistic, and therefore opinions -- opinions hopefully based on probabilities based on careful research and reasoning. Scientific theories predict impacts on all of us. They ought be put into the market place of ideas for all of us to evaluate.<br>
<br>"Leave the rest to politicians." Are you fucking out of your mind? Are you not aware of what egregious messes contemporary politicians have gotten us into, and how little regard they have for the truth and the overall well being of human kind?<br>
<br>w.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, May 10, 2012 at 1:26 PM, Paul Rumelhart <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com" target="_blank">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div><div style="font-size:12pt;font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif"><div><span>I remember a day when scientists used to stick to the facts. They would say things like "we can't tell you what to do, but we can tell you that our analyses have shown that this and this and this are likely with this level of uncertainty". Nowadays, scientists are fricking political activists. They give their opinions in articles in Rolling Stone and charge big sums of money for speaking engagements at various venues, and get arrested for protesting oil pipelines.<br>
</span></div><div><br><span></span></div><div><span>Can James Hansen show with scientific certainty that his plan would keep all the alarmist predictions of disaster at bay and then it would no longer be "game over"? What is the scientific definition of "game over"? Climate scientists need to, in my opinion, take back their
scientific neutrality. Here's what we've found, here's what our degree of confidence is. Leave the rest to the politicians.</span></div><div><br><span></span></div><div><span>It's statements like "</span>the science of the situation is clear — it’s time for the politics to
follow" that make me immediately skeptical of everything he says.<br></div><div><br><span></span></div><div><span>Paul<br></span></div><div><br></div> <div style="font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif;font-size:12pt">
<div style="font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif;font-size:12pt"> <div dir="ltr"> <font face="Arial"> <hr size="1"> <b><span style="font-weight:bold">From:</span></b> Art Deco <<a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a>><br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">To:</span></b> <a href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" target="_blank">vision2020@moscow.com</a> <br> <b><span style="font-weight:bold">Sent:</span></b> Thursday, May 10, 2012 11:49 AM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight:bold">Subject:</span></b> [Vision2020] Game Over for the Climate<br> </font> </div><div><div class="h5"> <br>
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<div>May 9, 2012</div>
<h1>Game Over for the Climate</h1>
<span><h6>By JAMES HANSEN</h6></span>
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GLOBAL warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening. That is why I was so troubled to read a recent <a rel="nofollow" href="http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2012/04/i-have-the-utmost-respect-for.html" target="_blank">interview with President Obama</a> in Rolling Stone in which he said that <a rel="nofollow" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/canada/index.html?inline=nyt-geo" title="More news and information about Canada." target="_blank">Canada</a> would exploit the <a rel="nofollow" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/energy-environment/oil-petroleum-and-gasoline/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="More articles about oil." target="_blank">oil</a> in its vast tar sands reserves “regardless of what we do.” </div>
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If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be game over for the climate. </div>
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Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain
twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our
entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and
continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and <a rel="nofollow" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/coal/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="More articles about coal." target="_blank">coal</a>
supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually
would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5
million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is
now. That level of heat-trapping gases would assure that the
disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea
levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would
become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would
be driven to extinction. Civilization would be at risk. </div>
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That is the long-term outlook. But near-term, things will be bad enough.
Over the next several decades, the Western United States and the
semi-arid region from North Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent
drought, with rain, when it does come, occurring in extreme events with
heavy flooding. Economic losses would be incalculable. More and more of
the Midwest would be a dust bowl. California’s Central Valley could no
longer be irrigated. <a rel="nofollow" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/f/food_prices/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="More articles about food prices and supply." target="_blank">Food prices</a> would rise to unprecedented levels. </div>
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If this sounds apocalyptic, it is. This is why we need to reduce
emissions dramatically. President Obama has the power not only to deny
tar sands oil additional access to Gulf Coast refining, which Canada
desires in part for export markets, but also to encourage economic
incentives to leave tar sands and other dirty fuels in the ground.
</div>
<div>
The <a rel="nofollow" href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="Recent and archival news about global warming." target="_blank">global warming</a>
signal is now louder than the noise of random weather, as I predicted
would happen by now in the journal Science in 1981. Extremely hot
summers have increased noticeably. We can say with high confidence that
the recent heat waves in Texas and Russia, and the one in Europe in
2003, which killed tens of thousands, were not natural events — they
were caused by human-induced climate change. </div>
<div>
We have known since the 1800s that carbon dioxide traps heat in the
atmosphere. The right amount keeps the climate conducive to human life.
But add too much, as we are doing now, and temperatures will inevitably
rise too high. This is not the result of natural variability, as some
argue. The earth is currently in the part of its long-term orbit cycle
where temperatures would normally be cooling. But they are rising — and
it’s because we are forcing them higher with fossil fuel emissions.
</div>
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The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280
parts per million to 393 p.p.m. over the last 150 years. The tar sands
contain enough carbon — 240 gigatons — to add 120 p.p.m. Tar shale, a
close cousin of tar sands found mainly in the United States, contains at
least an additional 300 gigatons of carbon. If we turn to these
dirtiest of fuels, instead of finding ways to phase out our addiction to
fossil fuels, there is no hope of keeping carbon concentrations below
500 p.p.m. — a level that would, as earth’s history shows, leave our
children a climate system that is out of their control. </div>
<div>
We need to start reducing emissions significantly, not create new ways
to increase them. We should impose a gradually rising carbon fee,
collected from fossil fuel companies, then distribute 100 percent of the
collections to all Americans on a per-capita basis every month. The
government would not get a penny. This market-based approach would
stimulate innovation, jobs and economic growth, avoid enlarging
government or having it pick winners or losers. Most Americans, except
the heaviest energy users, would get more back than they paid in
increased prices. Not only that, the reduction in oil use resulting from
the carbon price would be nearly six times as great as the oil supply
from the proposed pipeline from Canada, rendering the pipeline
superfluous, according to economic models driven by a slowly rising
carbon price. </div>
<div>
But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions to make fossil
fuels pay their true costs, leveling the energy playing field, the
world’s governments are forcing the public to subsidize fossil fuels
with hundreds of billions of dollars per year. This encourages a frantic
stampede to extract every fossil fuel through mountaintop removal,
longwall mining, hydraulic fracturing, tar sands and tar shale
extraction, and deep ocean and Arctic drilling. </div>
<div>
President Obama speaks of a “planet in peril,” but he does not provide
the leadership needed to change the world’s course. Our leaders must
speak candidly to the public — which yearns for open, honest discussion —
explaining that our continued technological leadership and economic
well-being demand a reasoned change of our energy course. History has
shown that the American public can rise to the challenge, but leadership
is essential. </div>
<div>
The science of the situation is clear — it’s time for the politics to
follow. This is a plan that can unify conservatives and liberals,
environmentalists and business. Every major national science academy in
the world has reported that global warming is real, caused mostly by
humans, and requires urgent action. The cost of acting goes far higher
the longer we wait — we can’t wait any longer to avoid the worst and be
judged immoral by coming generations. </div>
<div>
<div><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/staff/jhansen.html" target="_blank">James Hansen</a> directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and is the author of “Storms of My Grandchildren.”</div> </div>
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</div><div><div><div><div style="width:310px"><br><h3><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/05/09/should-churches-get-tax-breaks?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fopinion%2Findex.jsonp" target="_blank">Room for Debate: Should Churches Get Tax Breaks?</a></h3>
<br></div></div></div></div>-- <br>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br><a rel="nofollow" href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br>
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<br>-- <br>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br><a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br>