We do not know either the short term or long term effects of this Japanese nuclear disaster yet, especially the long term effects of the radiation leaked. Chuck Kovis is right on target about his concerns. Of particular concern is the mutations in sea life and their eventual consequences globally on the oceanic environment and consequently on the food chain that sustains much of life on earth. The huge barrage of flotsam approaching our coast (now about 300 miles off the coast of Canada) is at this time another unknown in the amount and effect of radiation.<br>
<br>I have been in systems since the late 1960's. In my opinion there is no such thing as a fail-safe system or a perfectly secure system. If one wanted to spend a lot of time, I think both of these opinions could be proven in a proof analogous to Godel's Proof. There is no way to eliminate human error or duplicity whether in design or operation. There is no way to prove that any design has provided for all possible conditions, since there is yet to be designed any large system which did not create new, unforeseen conditions. There is no way to correctly predict the force of future natural disasters, as you illustrated in your comments below.<br>
<br>The consequences of unconsidered, unimagined, or incorrectly predicted errors in the design, construction, and operation of a nuclear power plant, and the disposal of waste from that plant are are a risk, in my opinion, that do not justify the expected reward. I am skeptical for reasons given above of any engineer's claim about ultimate safety of nuclear power as compared to other methods of energy production.<br>
<br>You and I are not likely to contribute to the debate about whether nuclear is the only way to go. In the 1980's I spent considerable time and effort on this problem. Things have changed since them, but I still believe that a combination of solar energy, other alternate sources, energy efficient designs, and conservation is the most sensible and safest way to go. Add a rigorous global program of birth control to this to reduce the demand for power (and many other resources soon to become scarce).<br>
<br>w.<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Mar 27, 2012 at 6:15 PM, Paul Rumelhart <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<u></u>
<div text="#000000" bgcolor="#ffffff">
<br>
While TEPCO's handling of the situation was atrocious, I would also
like to point out that the Fukushima Daichi plant withstood a 9.0
earthquake followed by 40ft waves, which were more than twice as
high as their sea wall was built to withstand. It was an act of God
(don't mean that literally) that was far on the outside of what they
even thought was possible in terms of likely occurrences.<br>
<br>
I've only been able to find references to three deaths directly
attributed to the Fukushima disaster. Two of them occurred during
the earthquake and tsunami, and one worker who was in his 60's died
of a sudden illness when cleaning around the reactors, but they are
unsure if it's radiation-related because he was exposed to about as
much radiation as a chest x-ray.<br>
<br>
Anyway, compare and contrast to the coal mine fire that has been
burning underground for 50 years under Centralia, Pennsylvania.
That wasn't caused by a natural disaster of epic proportions, it was
caused by someone throwing some hot ash in a landfill that didn't
have a fire-resistant clay barrier that was up-to-date. The fire is
still burning today.<br>
<br>
I just hate to see this incident used as the poster boy for the
anti-nuclear crowd. Sure, if they'd doubled the height of the sea
wall, or had moved the emergency generator to higher ground instead
of trusting the sea walls to hold, the disaster might have been
mostly diverted. This wasn't a Chernobyl, where human error was the
main cause of the disaster.<br>
<br>
That having been said, there are newer designs out there that they
need to expedite testing on to ensure that even this level of a
disaster won't cause a containment breach.<br>
<br>
If we want to get off of oil and coal any time soon, nuclear is the
only real way to go. Eventually, they'll solve the energy storage
problems and make intermittent alternative energy sources more
viable. In the meantime, though, nuclear is the only way to go for
alternative base-load generation. Well, and hydro, but there are
only so many rivers we can dam up.<br>
<br>
Paul<div><div class="h5"><br>
<br>
On 03/27/2012 08:37 AM, Art Deco wrote:
</div></div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div class="h5"><br clear="all">
<img src="http://www.fncstatic.com/static/fn2/ws/img/print-logo.gif" alt="">
<h1>Probe at Japan's crippled nuke plant finds fatal radiation
levels </h1>
<p> </p>
<p>Published March 27, 2012 | Associated Press</p>
<div>
<p>advertisement</p>
</div>
<p>A new probe at Japan's crippled nuclear power plant has found
fatal radiation levels and hardly any cooling water inside one
of the reactors, renewing concerns about the plant's stability.</p>
<p>The operator of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant says an
endoscopic examination Tuesday detected radiation levels up to
10 times the fatal dose inside the No. 2 reactor's contain
chamber, suggesting challenges ahead in shutting down the
facility.</p>
<p>The probe also found the containment vessel had cooling water
up to only about 2 feet from the bottom, far below the yards
estimated when the government declared the plant's stability in
December.</p>
<p>Plant workers also reported fresh leaks of contaminated water
from a water treatment unit, some flowing into the ocean.</p>
<br>
<p><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/27/probe-at-japans-crippled-nuke-plant-finds-fatal-radiation-levels/" target="_blank">http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/03/27/probe-at-japans-crippled-nuke-plant-finds-fatal-radiation-levels/</a></p>
<br>
-- <br>
Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br>
<a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br>
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</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>Art Deco (Wayne A. Fox)<br><a href="mailto:art.deco.studios@gmail.com" target="_blank">art.deco.studios@gmail.com</a><br>