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It's true that sea level rise may speed up as the earth warms
(assuming it continues to warm). Best guess for how long it will
take for (for example) the Greenland Ice Sheet to melt according to
Wikipedia is "several hundred years". This leads to about a 7 meter
sea level rise over that time period. This casts further doubt on
James Hansen's claim of "multiple meters of sea level rise by
2100". Of course, if Antarctica melts, then we'll get a much larger
increase is sea level. The only problem there is that it's hard to
determine how long this would take since overall the Antarctic Ice
Sheet is gaining ice, though slowly. The apparent demise of Arctic
Ice, assuming it's really as bad as they say, for the most part
makes no difference at all to sea level rise since ice floating in
water does not change the level of the water as it melts.<br>
<br>
What it boils down to is this: James Hansen is a respected climate
scientist, and he's also an outspoken environmental activist. When
he's giving interviews as an activist, he doesn't seem to have any
qualms about making what he says sound as alarming as possible even
if he has to stretch his facts a little. It would be best to take
what he says when he's not publishing papers with a grain of salt.
Unless you enjoy being manipulated into thinking a certain way out
of simple fear.<br>
<br>
Paul<br>
<br>
On 12/14/2011 08:12 PM, Donovan Arnold wrote:
<blockquote
cite="mid:1323922326.75371.YahooMailNeo@web38105.mail.mud.yahoo.com"
type="cite">
<div style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); background-color: rgb(255, 255,
255); font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif;
font-size: 18pt;">
<div><span>Paul,</span></div>
<div><span></span> </div>
<div><span>I don't think it works like that. After the planet
reaches a certain <span id="misspell-0"><span>temperature</span></span>
it will all melt and the equation doesn't fit; (20 m * (1
yr / 0.0031 m) ~= 6450 yr).</span></div>
<div><span></span> </div>
<div><span>You draw a continuous linear relationship between
time, <span id="misspell-1"><span>temperature</span></span> and
volume. It is more of a bell curve. A slight increase
results in little more water, and then as it reaches a
higher <span id="misspell-2"><span>temperature</span></span>
much more ice melts; And once almost all the ice is melted,
it will not rise as high in proportion to <span
id="misspell-0"><span>temperature</span></span> and
time because the supply of finite water from the melted ice
would be depleted. </span></div>
<div><span></span> </div>
<div><span>Humans may be able to handle the <span
id="misspell-3"><span>temperature</span></span> change of
several degrees, but many of the planets species cannot,
which in effect impact other animals and plants, and then
Humans in return in the chain of life. </span></div>
<div><span></span> </div>
<div><span>Everything has a price. We enjoy our machines. But
those machines put chemicals into our atmosphere. It is not
without consequence or cost. Just being in a closed garage
with one running car for a short time is enough pollution to
kill anyone in it. Image the effects of billions of vehicles
running all the time for a hundred years. A person cannot
reasonably argue it is not impacting the planet and its
inhabitants. <var id="yui-ie-cursor"></var></span></div>
<div><span></span> </div>
<div><span>Donovan Arnold</span></div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif;
font-size: 18pt;">
<div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif;
font-size: 12pt;"> <font face="Arial" size="2"> <b><span
style="font-weight: bold;">From:</span></b> Paul
Rumelhart <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com"><godshatter@yahoo.com></a><br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> Ted
Moffett <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com"><starbliss@gmail.com></a> <br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cc:</span></b> Moscow
Vision 2020 <a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com"><vision2020@moscow.com></a> <br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b>
Wednesday, December 14, 2011 8:20 PM<br>
<b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b>
Re: [Vision2020] NASA GISS: Dec. 8 2011: "Paleoclimate
Record Points Toward Potential Rapid Climate Changes"<br>
</font> <br>
<div id="yiv2011195843">
<div> <br>
James Hansen is expecting a 20 meter sea level rise for
every degree of warming? It's already warmed a bit more
than half a degree C since the late 1800s. Where's our
12 meter sea level rise? In contrast, sea level has
risen about 0.2 meters in the same time period. I
understand that he isn't saying that we'll get all 20
meters at once.<br>
<br>
Googling around the web a bit comes up with about a 3.1
mm/year sea level rise, which is the "accelerated" rate
they are worried about in recent decades.<br>
<br>
20 m * (1 yr / 0.0031 m) ~= 6450 yr<br>
<br>
This level should be reached at around year 8461 BCE,
given the current rate of sea level rise. I think we'll
have time to deal with it as it happens. And that's for
one degree. If we get the expected 3, which is a little
conservative, then we'll get to that level on or around
21365 BCE.<br>
<br>
If we got all 20 meters by 2100, then that would mean a
sudden acceleration to: 20 m / (2100 - 2011) yr = 0.225
m/yr. So we would expect to see as much sea level rise,
on average, every year that we've seen so far since
pre-industrial times for this to happen.<br>
<br>
As it stands, if the current rate of sea level rise
continues, we should expect a sea level rise of (2100 -
2011) * .0031 m = 0.276 m. A little more than a years
worth of Hansen's figures. Just one meter of sea level
rise would mean that the current sea level rise would
have to almost quadruple in the next few years.<br>
<br>
And people wonder why I'm skeptical.<br>
<br>
Paul<br>
<br>
<br>
On 12/14/2011 04:06 PM, Ted Moffett wrote:
<blockquote type="cite">
<div>Monday Dec. 12, 2011 the "Lewiston Tribune" front
page headline read "Climate Deal Extends Status
Quo." </div>
<div><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://lmtribune.com/editors_pick/article_e889c1b8-bb55-5783-9fb1-4635ca902dee.html">http://lmtribune.com/editors_pick/article_e889c1b8-bb55-5783-9fb1-4635ca902dee.html</a>
</div>
<div>The article was sourced from "The Associated
Press," authored by Maxx and Ritter, so my comments
do not directly apply to "Lewiston Tribune"
journalists </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The headline might have read, to address the
magnitude of the problem humanity is potentially
facing, "No Substantive Climate Deal Portends Meters
of Sea Level Rise by 2100" if the article was
referencing credible peer reviewed science on this
issue ("Global sea level linked to global
temperature<a class="moz-txt-link-rfc2396E" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0907765106.full.pdf ). Instead,thearticlemeeklydeclared">"
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/12/04/0907765106.full.pdf
). Instead, the article meekly declared "</a>Scientists
say that if levels of greenhouse gases continue to
rise, eventually the world's climate will reach a
tipping point, with irreversible melting of some ice
sheets and a several foot rise in sea levels."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Several foot rise? How about potentially meters
of sea level rise by 2100? With more to follow as
climate change continues into the next century: </div>
<div>National Academies Press: "Beyond the Next Few
Centuries: Long-Term Feedbacks and Earth System
Sensitivity"</div>
<div><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12877&page=217">http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12877&page=217</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Read this recent release from NASA's Goddard
Institute for Space Studies, regarding a paper now
"in press" (abstract at bottom):</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20111208/">http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20111208/</a></div>
<h2>Research News</h2>
<h3>Paleoclimate Record Points Toward Potential Rapid
Climate Changes</h3>
<div class="yiv2011195843byline">Dec. 8, 2011</div>
<div><b><i>Related NASA AGU news briefing materials
may be found <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/rapid-change.html"
rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>.</i></b></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>New research into the Earth's paleoclimate
history by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
Studies director James E. Hansen suggests the
potential for rapid climate changes this century,
including multiple meters of sea level rise, if
global warming is not abated.</div>
<div>By looking at how the Earth's climate responded
to past natural changes, Hansen sought insight
into a fundamental question raised by ongoing
human-caused climate change: "What is the
dangerous level of global warming?" Some
international leaders have suggested a goal of
limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius from
pre-industrial times in order to avert
catastrophic change. But Hansen said at a press
briefing at a meeting of the American Geophysical
Union in San Francisco on Tues, Dec. 6, that
warming of 2 degrees Celsius would lead to drastic
changes, such as significant ice sheet loss in
Greenland and Antarctica.</div>
<div>Based on Hansen's temperature analysis work at
the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the
Earth's average global surface temperature has
already risen .8 degrees Celsius since 1880, and
is now warming at a rate of more than .1 degree
Celsius every decade. This warming is largely
driven by increased greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, particularly carbon dioxide, emitted
by the burning of fossil fuels at power plants, in
cars and in industry. At the current rate of
fossil fuel burning, the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere will have doubled from
pre-industrial times by the middle of this
century. A doubling of carbon dioxide would cause
an eventual warming of several degrees, Hansen
said.</div>
<div>In recent research, Hansen and co-author Makiko
Sato, also of Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
compared the climate of today, the Holocene, with
previous similar "interglacial" epochs — periods
when polar ice caps existed but the world was not
dominated by glaciers. In studying cores drilled
from both ice sheets and deep ocean sediments,
Hansen found that global mean temperatures during
the Eemian period, which began about 130,000 years
ago and lasted about 15,000 years, were less than
1 degree Celsius warmer than today. If
temperatures were to rise 2 degrees Celsius over
pre-industrial times, global mean temperature
would far exceed that of the Eemian, when sea
level was four to six meters higher than today,
Hansen said. </div>
<div>"The paleoclimate record reveals a more
sensitive climate than thought, even as of a few
years ago. Limiting human-caused warming to 2
degrees is not sufficient," Hansen said. "It would
be a prescription for disaster."</div>
<div>Hansen focused much of his new work on how the
polar regions and in particular the ice sheets of
Antarctica and Greenland will react to a warming
world. </div>
<div>Two degrees Celsius of warming would make Earth
much warmer than during the Eemian, and would move
Earth closer to Pliocene-like conditions, when sea
level was in the range of 25 meters higher than
today, Hansen said. In using Earth's climate
history to learn more about the level of
sensitivity that governs our planet's response to
warming today, Hansen said the paleoclimate record
suggests that every degree Celsius of global
temperature rise will ultimately equate to 20
meters of sea level rise. However, that sea level
increase due to ice sheet loss would be expected
to occur over centuries, and large uncertainties
remain in predicting how that ice loss would
unfold.</div>
<div>Hansen notes that ice sheet disintegration will
not be a linear process. This non-linear
deterioration has already been seen in vulnerable
places such as Pine Island Glacier in West
Antarctica, where the rate of ice mass loss has
continued accelerating over the past decade. Data
from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) satellite is already consistent
with a rate of ice sheet mass loss in Greenland
and West Antarctica that doubles every ten years.
The GRACE record is too short to confirm this with
great certainty; however, the trend in the past
few years does not rule it out, Hansen said. This
continued rate of ice loss could cause multiple
meters of sea level rise by 2100, Hansen said.</div>
<div>Ice and ocean sediment cores from the polar
regions indicate that temperatures at the poles
during previous epochs — when sea level was tens
of meters higher — is not too far removed from the
temperatures Earth could reach this century on a
"business as usual" trajectory.</div>
<div>"We don't have a substantial cushion between
today's climate and dangerous warming," Hansen
said. "Earth is poised to experience strong
amplifying feedbacks in response to moderate
additional global warming." </div>
<div>Detailed considerations of a new warming target
and how to get there are beyond the scope of this
research, Hansen said. But this research is
consistent with Hansen's earlier findings that
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would need to be
rolled back from about 390 parts per million in
the atmosphere today to 350 parts per million in
order to stabilize the climate in the long term.
While leaders continue to discuss a framework for
reducing emissions, global carbon dioxide
emissions have remained stable or increased in
recent years. </div>
<div>Hansen and others noted that while the
paleoclimate evidence paints a clear picture of
what Earth's earlier climate looked like, but that
using it to predict precisely how the climate
might change on much smaller timescales in
response to human-induced rather than natural
climate change remains difficult. But, Hansen
noted, the Earth system is already showing signs
of responding, even in the cases of "slow
feedbacks" such as ice sheet changes.</div>
<div>The human-caused release of increased carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere also presents climate
scientists with something they've never seen in
the 65 million year record of carbon dioxide
levels — a drastic rate of increase that makes it
difficult to predict how rapidly the Earth will
respond. In periods when carbon dioxide has
increased due to natural causes, the rate of
increase averaged about .0001 parts per million
per year — in other words, one hundred parts per
million every million years. Fossil fuel burning
is now causing carbon dioxide concentrations to
increase at two parts per million per year.</div>
<div>"Humans have overwhelmed the natural, slow
changes that occur on geologic timescales," Hansen
said.</div>
<h4>Web Link</h4>
<div>NASA/GISS Science Brief: <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_15/"
rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Earth's Climate
History: Implications for Tomorrow</a> </div>
<h4>Reference</h4>
<div>Hansen, J.E., and Mki. Sato, 2011: <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha05510d.html"
rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Paleoclimate
implications for human-made climate change</a>.
In <cite>Climate Change: Inferences from
Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects</cite>. A.
Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. Šijači, Eds. Springer,
in press.</div>
<div>----------------------------------------</div>
<div><a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha05510d.html"
rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha05510d.html</a></div>
<h2>Publication Abstracts</h2>
<h3>Hansen and Sato 2011, in press</h3>
<div>Hansen, J.E., and Mki. Sato, 2011: Paleoclimate
implications for human-made climate change. In <cite>Climate
Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and
Regional Aspects</cite>. A. Berger, F. Mesinger,
and D. Šijači, Eds. Springer, in press. </div>
<div>Paleoclimate data help us assess climate
sensitivity and potential human-made climate
effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest
interglacial periods of the past million years was
less than 1°C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar
warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene
does not imply that a substantial cushion remains
between today's climate and dangerous warming, but
rather that Earth is poised to experience strong
amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate
global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made
warming to 2°C are not sufficient — they are
prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet
disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying
feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if
warming continues unabated, will be characterized
better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than
by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though
too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a
doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the
possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this
century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss
supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature
now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid
reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for
humanity to succeed in preserving a planet
resembling the one on which civilization
developed.</div>
<div>------------------------------------------</div>
<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div>
</div>
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