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<DIV class=timestamp>August 16, 2011</DIV>
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<H1><NYT_HEADLINE version="1.0" type=" ">Crashing the Tea
Party</NYT_HEADLINE></H1><NYT_BYLINE>
<H6 class=byline>By DAVID E. CAMPBELL and ROBERT D.
PUTNAM</H6></NYT_BYLINE><NYT_TEXT>
<DIV id=articleBody><NYT_CORRECTION_TOP></NYT_CORRECTION_TOP>
<P>GIVEN how much sway the Tea Party has among Republicans in Congress and those
seeking the Republican presidential nomination, one might think the Tea Party is
redefining mainstream American politics. </P>
<P>But in fact the Tea Party is increasingly swimming against the tide of public
opinion: among most Americans, even before the furor over the debt limit, its
brand was becoming toxic. To embrace the Tea Party carries great political risk
for Republicans, but perhaps not for the reason you might think. </P>
<P>Polls show that disapproval of the Tea Party is climbing. In April 2010, a
New York Times/CBS News survey found that 18 percent of Americans had an
unfavorable opinion of it, 21 percent had a favorable opinion and 46 percent had
not heard enough. Now, <A href="http://tinyurl.com/3ccjkte">14 months later</A>,
Tea Party supporters have slipped to 20 percent, while their opponents have more
than doubled, to 40 percent. </P>
<P>Of course, politicians of all stripes are not faring well among the public
these days. But in data we have recently collected, the Tea Party ranks lower
than any of the 23 other groups we asked about — lower than both Republicans and
Democrats. It is even less popular than much maligned groups like “atheists” and
“Muslims.” Interestingly, one group that approaches it in unpopularity is the
Christian Right. </P>
<P>The strange thing is that over the last five years, Americans have moved in
an economically conservative direction: they are more likely to favor smaller
government, to oppose redistribution of income and to favor private charities
over government to aid the poor. While none of these opinions are held by a
majority of Americans, the trends would seem to favor the Tea Party. So why are
its negatives so high? To find out, we need to examine what kinds of people
actually support it. </P>
<P>Beginning in 2006 we interviewed a representative sample of 3,000 Americans
as part of our continuing research into national political attitudes, and we
returned to interview many of the same people again this summer. As a result, we
can look at what people told us, long before there was a Tea Party, to predict
who would become a Tea Party supporter five years later. We can also account for
multiple influences simultaneously — isolating the impact of one factor while
holding others constant. </P>
<P>Our analysis casts doubt on the Tea Party’s “origin story.” Early on, Tea
Partiers were often described as nonpartisan political neophytes. Actually, the
Tea Party’s supporters today were highly partisan Republicans long before the
Tea Party was born, and were more likely than others to have contacted
government officials. In fact, past Republican affiliation is the single
strongest predictor of Tea Party support today. </P>
<P>What’s more, contrary to some accounts, the Tea Party is not a creature of
the Great Recession. Many Americans have suffered in the last four years, but
they are no more likely than anyone else to support the Tea Party. And while the
public image of the Tea Party focuses on a desire to shrink government, concern
over big government is hardly the only or even the most important predictor of
Tea Party support among voters. </P>
<P>So what do Tea Partiers have in common? They are overwhelmingly white, but
even compared to other white Republicans, they had a low regard for immigrants
and blacks long before Barack Obama was president, and they still do. </P>
<P>More important, they were disproportionately social conservatives in 2006 —
opposing abortion, for example — and still are today. Next to being a
Republican, the strongest predictor of being a Tea Party supporter today was a
desire, back in 2006, to see religion play a prominent role in politics. And Tea
Partiers continue to hold these views: they seek “deeply religious” elected
officials, approve of religious leaders’ engaging in politics and want religion
brought into political debates. The Tea Party’s generals may say their
overriding concern is a smaller government, but not their rank and file, who are
more concerned about putting God in government. </P>
<P>This inclination among the Tea Party faithful to mix religion and politics
explains their support for Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Gov.
Rick Perry of Texas. Their appeal to Tea Partiers lies less in what they say
about the budget or taxes, and more in their overt use of religious language and
imagery, including Mrs. Bachmann’s lengthy prayers at campaign stops and Mr.
Perry’s prayer rally in Houston. </P>
<P>Yet it is precisely this infusion of religion into politics that most
Americans increasingly oppose. While over the last five years Americans have
become slightly more conservative economically, they have swung even further in
opposition to mingling religion and politics. It thus makes sense that the Tea
Party ranks alongside the Christian Right in unpopularity. </P>
<P>On everything but the size of government, Tea Party supporters are
increasingly out of step with most Americans, even many Republicans. Indeed, at
the opposite end of the ideological spectrum, today’s Tea Party parallels the
anti-Vietnam War movement which rallied behind George S. McGovern in 1972. The
McGovernite activists brought energy, but also stridency, to the Democratic
Party — repelling moderate voters and damaging the Democratic brand for a
generation. By embracing the Tea Party, Republicans risk repeating history.
</P><NYT_AUTHOR_ID>
<DIV class=authorIdentification>
<P>David E. Campbell, an associate professor of political science at Notre Dame,
and Robert D. Putnam, a professor of public policy at Harvard, are the authors
of “American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us.”
</P></DIV></NYT_AUTHOR_ID><NYT_CORRECTION_BOTTOM>
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<DIV><FONT size=2 face=Verdana>Wayne A. Fox<BR><A
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