<html><body bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><div>Thanks, Paul. This is very helpful. I don't care much about clinatology. My point is epistemological and it still stands. This kind of skeptical criticism will, if pressed, extend to any and everything.</div><div><br></div><div>Think of the thermometers as data points. Your point is that the data points are limited; they only extend so far. Fine.&nbsp;</div><div><br></div><div>Suppose I give you one billion&nbsp;<span class="Apple-style-span" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); ">thermometers. How is your problem solved? There will still be spaces in between the data points, areas of which we'll know nothing about.</span></div><div><br>In reality, we're talking about scientists with limited resources working in huge areas. I still think the scientists know what they are doing. Your problem is a problem about human limitations.</div><div><br></div><div>Let's put it this way, if you could figure out a better way to collect data that was economically feasable and would dispute the findings of the average climatologist, you'd have no problem getting funding.</div><div><br></div><div>Or prove me wrong. Become a climatologist and show us all how to do it the right way!</div><div><br>On Jun 20, 2011, at 6:56 AM, Paul Rumelhart &lt;<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>&gt; wrote:<br><br></div><div><span></span></div><blockquote type="cite"><div>

    <br>
    Maybe I should go into more detail.&nbsp; Take, for example, historical
    thermometer readings for the U of I and see how well they correlate
    with thermometer readings in Pullman, Spokane, Lewiston, and other
    nearby thermometer stations.&nbsp; The idea is to find out just how far
    out from Moscow the readings from the U of I's thermometer extends
    with some minimum level of confidence.&nbsp; Can we trust it as far out
    as, say, Moses Lake?&nbsp; Probably not.&nbsp; I'd be curious how well
    Lewiston and Moscow's temperature data sets correlate.<br>
    <br>
    Intuitively, some thermometers would not extend very far because of
    the geography of the area, and some might extend farther.&nbsp; So, for
    each thermometer in the data set, find out how far they can reliably
    be extended and draw that circle on a map, colored in with the
    appropriate color based on their temperature anomaly.&nbsp; If, for
    example, Moscow's circle doesn't make it halfway to Spokane and
    vice-versa, then that area between Spokane and Moscow should show up
    as gray (meaning that no reliable thermometer data covers that
    region), instead of assuming it's value is some blend of the two.&nbsp;
    This is more important where thermometers are very far apart, of
    course, then it is in the continental U.S.&nbsp; That way, a small number
    of thermometers don't affect the bottom-line global values unduly.<br>
    <br>
    Paul<br>
    <br>
    On 06/20/2011 05:31 AM, Joe Campbell wrote:
    <blockquote cite="mid:F5AD248B-A15B-4E75-BE84-94744328863E@gmail.com" type="cite">
      <div>"<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 16px;
          font-family: 'times new roman','new york',times,serif;">What
          I'd like to see somebody do is take every thermometer in the
          data sets and find out exactly how well they correlate with
          their nearest neighbors." This is what I was commenting on.</span><br>
        <br>
        <br>
      </div>
      <div><br>
        On Jun 19, 2011, at 9:51 PM, Dan Carscallen &lt;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:areaman@moscow.com"><a href="mailto:areaman@moscow.com">areaman@moscow.com</a></a>&gt;
        wrote:<br>
        <br>
      </div>
      <blockquote type="cite">
        <div>
          <div>I read that Paul is questioning whether there are enough
            thermometers<br>
            <br>
            DC</div>
          <div><br>
            On Jun 19, 2011, at 19:46, Joe Campbell &lt;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com"><a href="mailto:philosopher.joe@gmail.com">philosopher.joe@gmail.com</a></a>&gt;
            wrote:<br>
            <br>
          </div>
          <blockquote type="cite">
            <div>
              <div>You are questioning whether the&nbsp;<span class="Apple-style-span" style="">thermometers</span>&nbsp;are
                accurate? This is a pretty skeptical move. I should
                think the scientists know whether or not the &nbsp;<span class="Apple-style-span" style="">thermometers&nbsp;</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="">are accurate.</span></div>
              <div><br>
              </div>
              <div>How do you know you have a head, that you're not in
                the Matrix world, that you typed the post to which I am
                responding?<br>
                <br>
                <br>
              </div>
              <div><br>
                On Jun 19, 2011, at 3:42 PM, Paul Rumelhart &lt;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com"><a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a></a>&gt;
                wrote:<br>
                <br>
              </div>
              <blockquote type="cite">
                <div>
                  <div style="font-family: times new roman,new
                    york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;">
                    <div><br>
                      Not surprisingly, I'm skeptical of the temperature
                      anomalies map too.&nbsp; Mainly because the highest
                      temperatures, which count greatly towards these
                      hottest year records, are at the poles where we
                      coincidentally have the fewest thermometers.<br>
                      <br>
                      What I'd like to see somebody do is take every
                      thermometer in the data sets and find out exactly
                      how well they correlate with their nearest
                      neighbors.&nbsp; Come up with a value between 0 and 1
                      for each thermometer within, say 100 miles of any
                      one thermometer and use that data to come up with
                      a radius within which the temperature is
                      correlated with a factor over a given amount and
                      can thus be assumed to cover.&nbsp; Use that to produce
                      a color-coded temperature anomalies map, leaving
                      the blank spots where there is no reliable data
                      intact.&nbsp; Then, while you're at it, see how well
                      that map correlates with the satellite lower
                      troposphere temperature data.<br>
                      <br>
                      Then, if you want to color in the gray areas,
                      setup some more thermometers and start taking
                      readings.&nbsp; I'd prefer that our confidence on what
                      we actually know was higher rather than assuming
                      we know more than we actually do.<br>
                      <br>
                      Anyway, just a thought.<br>
                      <br>
                      Paul<br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family: times new roman,new
                      york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br>
                      <div style="font-family:
                        arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><font face="Tahoma" size="2">
                          <hr size="1"><b><span style="font-weight:
                              bold;">From:</span></b> Ted Moffett &lt;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com"><a href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a></a>&gt;<br>
                          <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b>
                          Moscow Vision 2020 &lt;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com"><a href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</a></a>&gt;<br>
                          <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b>
                          Sun, June 19, 2011 2:36:08 PM<br>
                          <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b>
                          [Vision2020] GISS Global May 2011 Temp. Color
                          Map Shows Northwest US Cold Anomaly<br>
                        </font><br>
                        I posted information on the Goddard Institute
                        for Space Studies May<br>
                        2011 global average temperature data yesterday.&nbsp;
                        But I thought it was<br>
                        worth emphasizing that the color coded global
                        temperature map GISS<br>
                        displays on their website reveals the Northwest
                        US as one of the<br>
                        colder areas on Earth during May, colder
                        compared to normative<br>
                        temperature for each area (1951-1980 baseline),
                        that is.<br>
                        <br>
                        In fact, if I read this map correctly, the
                        Northwest US shows the<br>
                        largest area of deep blue in the Northern
                        Hemisphere, which indicates<br>
                        2-4 degree C. cold anomaly.&nbsp; I had trouble
                        finding any other area in<br>
                        the Northern Hemispshere color coded deep
                        blue... maybe a small area<br>
                        off the east coast of Japan.<br>
                        <br>
                        What is also noteworthy is the extreme
                        temperature variations south of<br>
                        South America extending into Antarctica, from
                        very anomalous warm<br>
                        (dark red or brown) to very anomalous cold
                        (purple).&nbsp; I'm skeptical of<br>
                        such an extreme temperature variation over such
                        a small distance.<br>
                        Remember, the Knights Carbonic (<br>
                        <span><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.monbiot.com/2009/11/23/the-knights-carbonic/"><a href="http://www.monbiot.com/2009/11/23/the-knights-carbonic/">http://www.monbiot.com/2009/11/23/the-knights-carbonic/</a></a>
                          ) are</span><br>
                        everywhere!&nbsp; Trust no one!<br>
                        <br>
                        GISS color coded global average temperature map
                        for May 2011:<br>
                        <br>
                        <span><a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&amp;month_last=05&amp;sat=4&amp;sst=1&amp;type=anoms&amp;mean_gen=05&amp;year1=2011&amp;year2=2011&amp;base1=1951&amp;base2=1980&amp;radius=1200&amp;pol=reg"><a href="http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&amp;month_last=05&amp;sat=4&amp;sst=1&amp;type=anoms&amp;mean_gen=05&amp;year1=2011&amp;year2=2011&amp;base1=1951&amp;base2=1980&amp;radius=1200&amp;pol=reg">http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&amp;month_last=05&amp;sat=4&amp;sst=1&amp;type=anoms&amp;mean_gen=05&amp;year1=2011&amp;year2=2011&amp;base1=1951&amp;base2=1980&amp;radius=1200&amp;pol=reg</a></a></span><br>
                        -----------------<br>
                        “From: <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:ernst.kattweizel@redcar.ac.uk"><a href="mailto:ernst.kattweizel@redcar.ac.uk">ernst.kattweizel@redcar.ac.uk</a></a><br>
                        Sent: 29th October 2009<br>
                        To: The Knights Carbonic<br>
                        <br>
                        Gentlemen, the culmination of our great plan
                        approaches fast. What the<br>
                        Master called “the ordering of men’s affairs by
                        a transcendent world<br>
                        state, ordained by God and answerable to no
                        man”, which we now know as<br>
                        Communist World Government, advances towards its
                        climax at Copenhagen.<br>
                        For 185 years since the Master, known to the
                        laity as Joseph Fourier,<br>
                        launched his scheme for world domination, the
                        entire physical science<br>
                        community has been working towards this moment.<br>
                        <br>
                        The early phases of the plan worked
                        magnificently. First the Master’s<br>
                        initial thesis - that the release of infrared
                        radiation is delayed by<br>
                        the atmosphere - had to be accepted by the
                        scientific establishment. I<br>
                        will not bother you with details of the gold
                        paid, the threats made<br>
                        and the blood spilt to achieve this end. But the
                        result was the<br>
                        elimination of the naysayers and the disgrace or
                        incarceration of the<br>
                        Master’s rivals. Within 35 years the 3rd Warden
                        of the Grand Temple of<br>
                        the Knights Carbonic (our revered prophet John
                        Tyndall) was able to<br>
                        “demonstrate” the Master’s thesis. Our control
                        of physical science was<br>
                        by then so tight that no major objections were
                        sustained.<br>
                        <br>
                        More resistence was encountered (and swiftly
                        despatched) when we<br>
                        sought to install the 6th Warden (Svante
                        Arrhenius) first as professor<br>
                        of physics at Stockholm University, then as
                        rector. From this position<br>
                        he was able to project the Master’s second grand
                        law - that the<br>
                        infrared radiation trapped in a planet’s
                        atmosphere increases in line<br>
                        with the quantity of carbon dioxide the
                        atmosphere contains. He and<br>
                        his followers (led by the Junior Warden Max
                        Planck) were then able to<br>
                        adapt the entire canon of physical and chemical
                        science to sustain the<br>
                        second law.<br>
                        <br>
                        Then began the most hazardous task of all: our
                        attempt to control the<br>
                        instrumental record. Securing the consent of the
                        scientific<br>
                        establishment was a simple matter. But
                        thermometers had by then become<br>
                        widely available, and amateur meteorologists
                        were making their own<br>
                        readings. We needed to show a steady rise as
                        industrialisation<br>
                        proceeded, but some of these unfortunates had
                        other ideas. The global<br>
                        co-option of police and coroners required
                        unprecedented resources, but<br>
                        so far we have been able to cover our tracks.<br>
                        <br>
                        The over-enthusiasm of certain of the Knights
                        Carbonic in 1998 was<br>
                        most regrettable. The high reading in that year
                        has proved impossibly<br>
                        costly to sustain. Those of our enemies who have
                        yet to be silenced<br>
                        maintain that the lower temperatures after that
                        date provide evidence<br>
                        of global cooling, even though we have ensured
                        that eight of the ten<br>
                        warmest years since 1850 have occurred since
                        2001(10). From now on we<br>
                        will engineer a smoother progression.<br>
                        <br>
                        Our co-option of the physical world has been
                        just as successful. The<br>
                        thinning of the Arctic ice cap was a
                        masterstroke. The ring of secret<br>
                        nuclear power stations around the Arctic Circle,
                        attached to giant<br>
                        immersion heaters, remains undetected, as do the
                        space-based lasers<br>
                        dissolving the world’s glaciers.<br>
                        <br>
                        Altering the migratory and reproductive patterns
                        of the world’s<br>
                        wildlife has proved more challenging. Though we
                        have now asserted<br>
                        control over the world’s biologists, there is no
                        accounting for the<br>
                        unauthorised observations of farmers, gardeners,
                        bird-watchers and<br>
                        other troublemakers. We have therefore been
                        forced to drive migrating<br>
                        birds, fish and insects into higher latitudes,
                        and to release several<br>
                        million tonnes of plant pheromones every year to
                        accelerate flowering<br>
                        and fruiting. None of this is cheap, and ever
                        more public money,<br>
                        secretly diverted from national accounts by
                        compliant governments, is<br>
                        required to sustain it.<br>
                        <br>
                        The co-operation of these governments requires
                        unflagging effort. The<br>
                        capture of George W. Bush, a late convert to the
                        cause of Communist<br>
                        World Government, was made possible only by the
                        threatened release of<br>
                        footage filmed by a knight at Yale, showing the
                        future president<br>
                        engaged in coitus with a Ford Mustang. Most
                        ostensibly-capitalist<br>
                        governments remain apprised of where their real
                        interests lie, though<br>
                        I note with disappointment that we have so far
                        failed to eliminate<br>
                        Vaclav Klaus. Through the offices of compliant
                        states, the Master’s<br>
                        third grand law has been accepted: world
                        government will be<br>
                        established under the guise of controlling
                        manmade emissions of<br>
                        greenhouse gases.<br>
                        <br>
                        Keeping the scientific community in line remains
                        a challenge. The<br>
                        national academies are becoming ever more
                        querulous and greedy, and<br>
                        require higher pay-offs each year. The
                        inexplicable events of the past<br>
                        month, in which the windows of all the leading
                        scientific institutions<br>
                        were broken and a horse’s head turned up in
                        James Hansen’s bed, appear<br>
                        to have staved off the immediate crisis, but for
                        how much longer can<br>
                        we maintain the consensus?<br>
                        <br>
                        Knights Carbonic, now that the hour of our
                        triumph is at hand, I urge<br>
                        you all to redouble your efforts. In the name of
                        the Master, go forth<br>
                        and terrify.<br>
                        <br>
                        Professor Ernst Kattweizel, University of
                        Redcar. 21st Grand Warden of<br>
                        the Temple of the Knights Carbonic.”<br>
                        <br>
                        ------------------------------------------<br>
                        Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br>
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                        <span>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.fsr.net"><a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a></a>&nbsp;
                          &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; </span><br>
                        &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; mailto:<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com"><a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</a></a><br>
=======================================================<br>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                </div>
              </blockquote>
              <blockquote type="cite">
                <div><span>=======================================================</span><br>
                  <span> List services made available by First Step
                    Internet, </span><br>
                  <span> serving the communities of the Palouse since
                    1994. &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><br>
                  <span> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.fsr.net"><a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a></a>
                    &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><br>
                  <span> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com"><a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com</a></a></span><br>
                  <span>=======================================================</span></div>
              </blockquote>
            </div>
          </blockquote>
          <blockquote type="cite">
            <div><span>=======================================================</span><br>
              <span> List services made available by First Step
                Internet, </span><br>
              <span> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.
                &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><br>
              <span> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="http://www.fsr.net"><a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a></a>
                &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><br>
              <span> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a moz-do-not-send="true" href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com"><a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com</a></a></span><br>
              <span>=======================================================</span></div>
          </blockquote>
        </div>
      </blockquote>
    </blockquote>
    <br>
  

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