<html><head><style type="text/css"><!-- DIV {margin:0px;} --></style></head><body><div style="font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif;font-size:12pt;color:#000000;"><br>November 21, 2010<br>
Our View: Idahoans speak up. They want it both ways.<br>
- Idaho Statesman<br>
<br>Are Idahoans hoping for the best — or are they hopelessly out of touch with reality? It’s tough to tell.<br>
<br>
Idahoans are pretty clear that they don’t want further cuts to education
or Medicaid. A recent survey, conducted by the Republican polling firm
Moore Information, pegged the opposition at 82 percent and 76 percent,
respectively.<br>
<br>
But in that same poll of registered voters, Idahoans were nearly as dead
set against sales or income tax increases — 65 percent opposition, in
both cases.<br>
<br>
Sounds great.<br>
<br>
But here’s the reality check.<br>
<br>
<ul><li> Idaho is staring at a potential 2011-12 shortfall of $340 million.<br>
</li></ul>
<ul><li> That shortfall represents 14 percent of the budget.<br>
</li></ul>
<ul><li> During the 2010 legislative session, the public schools’ budget
took a 7.5 percent cut. The cut for higher education was 11.3 percent.<br>
</li></ul>
<ul><li> Gov. Butch Otter and the Legislature made those unprecedented
cuts after spending most of the state’s budget reserves. This was a
last-ditch move, not unlike depleting the savings account to keep up
with the mortgage.<br>
</li></ul>
Now, the state’s piggy banks are almost empty. So, the state needs to
cut its budgets to balance the books — or find an additional, ongoing
source of money.<br>
<ul><li>What kind of a tax increase? Consider this, just for the sake of
context. Idaho’s current 6 percent sales tax is expected to generate
$976.5 million this year. Idaho could tack another 2 cents onto the
sales tax, and still fall short of erasing its shortfall.<br>
</li></ul>
<ul><li> Idahoans didn’t rule out tax increases. The Moore Information
survey found 71 percent support for increasing “sin” taxes on alcohol
and tobacco. But these tax increases wouldn’t fill much of a $340
million hole. Especially if the money is applied to preventive programs;
83 percent of respondents favored using new tobacco taxes for Medicaid,
or programs that help tobacco users or combat teenage tobacco use.
Worthy programs, of course — but dollars that go into these programs are
unavailable for education, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the
state’s general fund budget.</li></ul>
<br>
Idaho’s fiscal crisis is worse than many Idahoans seem to think. That’s
the only conclusion we can derive from the Moore Information survey
conducted Oct. 17-18, barely two weeks before Election Day. Idahoans
spoke loud and clear. Don’t cut education and Medicaid. Don’t raise
sales or income taxes.<br>
<br>
But that’s unrealistic.<br>
<br>
It’s quite possible, by the end of the 2011 session, that lawmakers will
cobble together some combination of budget cuts and tax increases.
Schools and state agencies probably can’t absorb a $340 million budget
cut. The state’s sluggish economy cannot sustain a $340 million tax
increase.<br>
<br>
The way the state — and its elected officials — choose to reconcile
these severe budget realities will directly affect schoolkids,
businesses and taxpayers for 2011 and beyond. Every legislative session
is important. This next one will be crucial. Defining. Pivotal. And no,
those aren’t overstatements.<br>
<br>
If Idahoans don’t get informed and involved in the discussion — starting
now, in the seven weeks before the 2011 Legislature convenes — they
won’t have much room to second-guess the outcomes. At this point,
lawmakers are left to interpret the people’s mixed message as best as
they can. Or, looking at it more cynically, lawmakers are free to pick
and choose the talking point that fits their preconceptions.<br>
<br>
Yes, Idahoans, it is time to engage. The first step in engagement is
understanding the problem, in all its harsh detail. In that regard,
there’s a lot of work to do.<br>
<br>
“Our View” is the editorial position of the Idaho Statesman. It is an
unsigned opinion expressing the consensus of the Statesman’s editorial
board. To comment on an editorial or suggest a topic, e-mail
editorial@idahostatesman.com.<br></div><br>
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