<div>Given your interest in this issue, you might want to post your objections to Realclimate.org, where the authors of the study in question respond to some of the objections to their work. After you post your objections to Realclimate.org, if you chose to do so, I would be happy to post the responses to your objections appearing on Realclimate.org, if any, to Vision2020, so that readers of this list will be exposed to an open and science based discussion of critical issues regarding human impacts on climate:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/08/expert-credibility-in-climate-change-responses-to-comments/#more-4699">http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/08/expert-credibility-in-climate-change-responses-to-comments/#more-4699</a></div>
<div><br> </div>
<h3 class="storytitle" id="post-4699">Expert Credibility in Climate Change – Responses to Comments</h3>
<div class="meta">Filed under:
<ul class="post-categories">
<li><a title="View all posts in Climate Science" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/climate-science/" rel="category tag">Climate Science</a>
<li><a title="View all posts in skeptics" href="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/category/communicating-climate/skeptics/" rel="category tag">skeptics</a></li></li></ul>— group @ 3 August 2010 </div>
<div class="entry">
<p><small>Guest commentary by William R. L. Anderegg, Jim Prall, Jacob Harold, Stephen H. Schneider</small></p>
<p><small><i>Note: Before Stephen Schneider’s untimely passing, he and his co-authors were working on a response to the conversation sparked by their recent paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on climate change expertise. One of <a href="http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/index.php/csw/details/schneider-interview-climate-expert-credibility/">Dr. Schneider’s final interviews</a> also addresses and discusses many of the issues covered here. </i></small></p>
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<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br> </div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 8/7/10, <b class="gmail_sendername">Paul Rumelhart</b> <<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid"><br>This study, frankly, pisses me off for a number of reasons.<br><br>First, their methodology is suspect. Instead of taking the time to build up a database of publications and their references themselves, they relied heavily upon Google Scholar keyword searches. This leads them open to the problems of duplicates, researchers with the same name as a climate researcher, and Google's own attempts to "correct" your queries by bringing in results that might be related based upon name similarity or other criteria.<br>
<br>Second, they use citation count as a metric in this. This can be considered more of a metric of how well their attempts to limit the access of skeptical researchers to peer reviewed journals is working. If you've read the climategate emails, you'll have seen that many of the climate researchers at the center of climate change science aren't above using the threat of limiting publication in peer reviewed journals or refusing to cite them leveled against people whose conclusions they disagree with. <br>
Mainly, however, it pains me to think that these researchers thought this paper was a valid use of their time. It's basically a way to say "Hey, we're smart! They're stupid! Listen to us!" When you have to rely upon "consensus" to sway people's opinions, you've stepped completely out of the realm of science and into the realm of politics. Any third-grader knows that lots of people can be wrong about something - the number of people that agree with something is not always related to its "truthiness". Look at the geocentric universe theory for one example of a case of almost everyone agreeing with something that turned out to be completely wrong. Hell, if you went through school more than 20 years ago look at how many things we were taught that turned out to be flat out wrong or at best poorly understood.<br>
<br>I'm hoping they will soon finish their study on how well penis length correlates with agreement with anthropogenic climate change theory so they can go back to working on the actual science again.<br><br>Paul<br><br>
<br>Ted Moffett wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid"><span class="q">Another attempt to quantify what some call the "consensus" among climate scientists that human impacts are the primary driver of the Earth's current warming climate:<br>
Article abstract:<br> <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract</a><br>
<br><br> Expert credibility in climate change<br><br></span> 1. William R. L. Anderegg<br> <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=William+R.+L.+Anderegg&sortspec=date&submit=Submit" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=William+R.+L.+Anderegg&sortspec=date&submit=Submit</a>>^a<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-1" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-1</a>>,^1<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#corresp-1" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#corresp-1</a>>,<br>
<br> 2. James W. Prall<br> <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=James+W.+Prall&sortspec=date&submit=Submit" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=James+W.+Prall&sortspec=date&submit=Submit</a>>^b<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-2" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-2</a>>,<br>
<br> 3. Jacob Harold<br> <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Jacob+Harold&sortspec=date&submit=Submit" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Jacob+Harold&sortspec=date&submit=Submit</a>>^c<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-3" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-3</a>>,<br>
and<br> 4. Stephen H. Schneider<br> <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Stephen+H.+Schneider&sortspec=date&submit=Submit" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Stephen+H.+Schneider&sortspec=date&submit=Submit</a>>^a<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-1" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-1</a>>,^d<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-4" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#aff-4</a>>,^1<br>
<<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#corresp-1" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#corresp-1</a>><br>
<br><br>+ <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.abstract#</a>> Author Affiliations<br>
<br> 1.<br> ^a Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;<br><br> 2.<br> ^b Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Toronto,<span class="q"><br> Toronto, ON, Canada M5S 3G4;<br>
<br></span> 3.<br> ^c William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Palo Alto, CA 94025; and<br><br> 4.<br> ^d Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University,<br> Stanford, CA 94305<br><br> 1.<span class="q"><br>
<br> Contributed by Stephen H. Schneider, April 9, 2010 (sent for<br> review December 22, 2009)<br><br><br> Abstract<br><br>Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (/i/) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (/ii/) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.<br>
<br>------------------<br>Full text of article available directly with no log-in:<br> <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.full.pdf+html" target="_blank">http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/22/1003187107.full.pdf+html</a><br>
------------------------------------------<br>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br></span>------------------------------------------------------------------------<br><br>=======================================================<br>
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