<div>Regarding the significance of the Arctic sea ice extent low point for 2010, which should occur in Sept., it is not as significant as the more accurate measure of the decline in Arctic sea ice, ice volume, as discussed below:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-July/071016.html">http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-July/071016.html</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>From website above, a previous Vision2020 post:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As far as the Arctic sea ice decline this season, whether it sets a new<br>record low sea ice extent or not is not especially significant, given that<br>according to the source at the website below, the Arctic sea ice volume<br>
already reached new record lows in 2010, and that the September low of 2009<br>was a record low sea ice volume. Again, where was the major media coverage<br>of this important climate science? You might have read this post on this<br>
finding already, but the post can be read at the website below:<br><br><a href="http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-July/070983.html">http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-July/070983.html</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Content below from website above, another previous Vision2020 post:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Read graph at website below on Arctic sea ice volume:<br><br><a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrent.png</a><br>
<br><a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php</a><br><br>><i>From website second above:<br></i><br>Arctic Sea Ice Volume Anomaly<br>
Sea Ice Volume is calculated using the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and<br>Assimilation System (PIOMAS) developed at APL/PSC by Dr. J. Zhang and<br>collaborators. Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the<br>
average<<a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/PIOMAS_daily_mean.png">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/images/PIOMAS_daily_mean.png</a>>over<br>the 1979 -2009 period for that day to remove the annual cycle. The<br>
model mean seasonal cycle of sea ice volume ranges from 28,600 km^3 in April<br>to 14,400 km^3 in September. The blue line represents the trend calculated<br>from January 1 1979 to the most recent date indicated on the figure. Total<br>
Arctic Ice Volume for March 2010 is 20,300 km^3, the lowest over the<br>1979-2010 period and 38% below the 1979 maximum. PIOMAS calculates that the<br>monthly average Arctic Sea Ice Volume for May 2010 was 19,000 km^3, the<br>
lowest May volume over the 1979–2010 period, 42% below the 1979 maximum and<br>32% below the 1979–2009 May average. September Ice Volume was lowest in 2009<br>at 5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum. Shaded areas represent one and<br>
two standard deviations of the anomaly from the trend. Updates will be<br>generated at approximately two-weekly intervals.<br>------------------------------------------<br>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 7/30/10, <b class="gmail_sendername">Paul Rumelhart</b> <<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid"><br>Unfortunately, the Arctic ice has been stubbornly refusing to align with the "thin rotten ice melting faster than in 2007" narrative that has been promulgated lately.<br>
<br>Take a look at the attached graph. The 2010 line on the graph has already crossed over the 2007 and 2009 lines, and if I didn't know better is contemplating making an end run on the 2006 and 2008 lines as well. I could, of course, be wrong and the line may dive for the bottom at any moment. But it does make me curious.<br>
<br>Be warned, though. Thinking too much about the graph and being stupid enough to publicly post your opinion online will get you labeled as a "denier". The going narrative on "deniers", in case you haven't been following this, is that we are pseudoscientists in the pocket of big oil who are most likely proponents of intelligent design if not outright creationism, and probably are in denial about the holocaust as well. So, on second thought, perhaps you shouldn't view the graph. It's too late for me, I'm sure the ecopolice already have me on their list, but you could at least save yourself.<br>
<br></frustration_born_from_marginalization><br><br>Paul<br><br>Gier, Nicholas wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">
<div><span class="e" id="q_12a24dc6881e9cb7_1"><br>Hi Ted,<br><br>I just wanted you to know that I'm saving every one of your posts on climate change in preparation for a column with the provisional title "Update on Climate Change." I'm going to wait until the data is in on Arctic ice.<br>
<br>Keep up the good work!<br><br>Nick<br><br>Nicholas F. Gier, Professor Emeritus<br>Department of Philosophy, University of Idaho<br>President, Idaho Federation of Teachers, AFT/AFL-CIO <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.idaho-aft.org/ift.htm" target="_blank">www.idaho-aft.org/ift.htm</a><br>
208-882-9212, 1037 Colt Rd., Moscow, ID 83843<br><br><br><br>-----Original Message-----<br>From: <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:vision2020-bounces@moscow.com" target="_blank">vision2020-bounces@moscow.com</a> on behalf of Ted Moffett<br>
Sent: Thu 7/29/2010 11:05 AM<br>To: Moscow Vision 2020<br>Subject: [Vision2020] July 28,2010: NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientistsin 48 Countries<br><br><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html" target="_blank">http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100728_stateoftheclimate.html</a><br>
<br><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/</a><br><br><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php</a><br>
NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48<br>Countries Earth<br>has been growing warmer for more than fifty years<br><br>July 28, 2010<br><br>The 2009 *State of the Climate* report released today draws on data for 10<br>
key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific<br>evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. More than 300 scientists<br>from 160 research groups in 48 countries contributed to the report, which<br>
confirms that the past decade was the warmest on record and that the Earth<br>has been growing warmer over the last 50 years.<br><br>Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10<br>measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes.<br>
The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a<br>warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land,<br>sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat,<br>
humidity and tropospheric temperature in the "active-weather" layer of the<br>atmosphere closest to the Earth's surface. Three indicators are declining:<br>Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.<br>
<br>"For the first time, and in a single compelling comparison, the analysis<br>brings together multiple observational records from the top of the<br>atmosphere to the depths of the ocean," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under<br>
secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The<br>records come from many institutions worldwide. They use data collected from<br>diverse sources, including satellites, weather balloons, weather stations,<br>
ships, buoys and field surveys. These independently produced lines of<br>evidence all point to the same conclusion: our planet is warming,"<br><br>The report emphasizes that human society has developed for thousands of<br>
years under one climatic state, and now a new set of climatic conditions are<br>taking shape. These conditions are consistently warmer, and some areas are<br>likely to see more extreme events like severe drought, torrential rain and<br>
violent storms.<br><br>"Despite the variability caused by short-term changes, the analysis<br>conducted for this report illustrates why we are so confident the world is<br>warming," said Peter Stott, Ph.D., contributor to the report and head of<br>
Climate Monitoring and Attribution of the United Kingdom Met Office Hadley<br>Centre. "When we look at air temperature and other indicators of climate, we<br>see highs and lows in the data from year to year because of natural<br>
variability. Understanding climate change requires looking at the<br>longer-term record. When we follow decade-to-decade trends using multiple<br>data sets and independent analyses from around the world, we see clear and<br>
unmistakable signs of a warming world."<br><br>While year-to-year changes in temperature often reflect natural climatic<br>variations such as El Niño/La Niña events, changes in average temperature<br>from decade-to-decade reveal long-term trends such as global warming. Each<br>
of the last three decades has been much warmer than the decade before. At<br>the time, the 1980s was the hottest decade on record. In the 1990s, every<br>year was warmer than the average of the previous decade. The 2000s were<br>
warmer still.<br><br>"The temperature increase of one degree Fahrenheit over the past 50 years<br>may seem small, but it has already altered our planet," said Deke Arndt,<br>co-editor of the report and chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch of NOAA's<br>
National Climatic Data Center. "Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy<br>rainfall is intensifying and heat waves are more common. And, as the new<br>report tells us, there is now evidence that over 90 percent of warming over<br>
the past 50 years has gone into our ocean."<br><br>More and more, Americans are witnessing the impacts of climate change in<br>their own backyards, including sea-level rise, longer growing seasons,<br>changes in river flows, increases in heavy downpours, earlier snowmelt and<br>
extended ice-free seasons in our waters. People are searching for relevant<br>and timely information about these changes to inform decision-making about<br>virtually all aspects of their lives. To help keep citizens and businesses<br>
informed about climate, NOAA created the Climate Portal at *<br><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.climate.gov/" target="_blank">http://www.climate.gov</a>* <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.climate.gov/" target="_blank">http://www.climate.gov/</a>>. The portal features a<br>
short video <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate" target="_blank">http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate</a>> that summarizes<br>some of the highlights of the State of the Climate Report.<br>
<br>*State of the Climate* is published as a special supplement to the Bulletin<br>of the American Meteorological Society and is edited by D.S. Arndt, M.O.<br>Baringer, and M.R. Johnson. The full report and an online media packet with<br>
graphics is available online: *<br><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate*" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate*</a><<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate</a>><br>
.<br><br>------------------------------------------<br><br>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br><br></span></div></blockquote></blockquote></div>