<html><head><style type="text/css"><!-- DIV {margin:0px;} --></style></head><body><div style="font-family:times new roman,new york,times,serif;font-size:12pt"><div>The scientific article itself was less assured than the press report:<br></div><div style="font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif; font-size: 12pt;"><span><a target="_blank" href="http://epic.awi.de/Publications/Haa2010b.pdf">http://epic.awi.de/Publications/Haa2010b.pdf</a></span><br><br>"However, the volume of older ice may have been less overall due<br>to a lower areal coverage, and because our surveys were still spatially limited"<br><br>As others point out, one year does not make a trend;<br><span><a target="_blank" href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/Has-Arctic-sea-ice-returned-to-normal.html">http://www.skepticalscience.com/Has-Arctic-sea-ice-returned-to-normal.html</a></span><br><br>Ron Force<br>Moscow ID USA<br><br><div style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;
font-size: 13px;"><font face="Tahoma" size="2"><hr size="1"><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">From:</span></b> Paul Rumelhart <godshatter@yahoo.com><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> Ted Moffett <starbliss@gmail.com><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cc:</span></b> Moscow Vision 2020 <vision2020@moscow.com><br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Sat, June 19, 2010 3:53:13 PM<br><b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [Vision2020] NSIDC: 2010 Arctic Sea Ice Decline Highest for Month of May During Satellite Record.<br></font><br>
<br>A recent series of measurements of the Arctic suggests that the melting <br>is not as severe as has been reported. A group of scientists supported <br>largely by the German government have flown a modified DC-3 trailing an <br>airborne probe that uses a series of electromagnetic signals to measure <br>the thickness of the ice. The probe measured ice thickness every five <br>meters along it's 2,412 kilometer journey.<br><br>Geophysicist Christian Haas of the University of Alberta has stated that <br>the ice is "in some ways in better shape going into the melt season than <br>it has been for a couple of years." and that "we have more thick ice <br>going into the summer than we did in 2009 and 2008."<br><br>Here is the story as reported by <a target="_blank" href="http://canada.com">canada.com</a>: <br><span><a target="_blank"
href="http://www.canada.com/Scan+Arctic+dispels+melting+gloom+researcher+says/3175785/story.html">http://www.canada.com/Scan+Arctic+dispels+melting+gloom+researcher+says/3175785/story.html</a></span><br><br>I don't expect to hear much about this in the media, since it goes <br>against the narrative they have been painstakingly building for years.<br><br>Paul<br><br><br><br>Ted Moffett wrote:<br>> Through May, 2010 has seen the highest average global temperatures in <br>> the National Climate Data Center record, since 1880 ( <br><span>> <a target="_blank" href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100615_globalstats.html">http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100615_globalstats.html</a> ).</span><br>> <br>> And May set a record for the May monthly rate of Arctic sea ice <br>> decline during the satellite record, starting in 1979 <br><span>> ( <a target="_blank"
href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html">http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html</a> ) according to the </span><br><span>> National Snow Ice Data Center ( <a target="_blank" href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/">http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/</a> , </span><br><span>> <a target="_blank" href="http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure2.png">http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure2.png</a> ,</span><br><span>> <a target="_blank" href="http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure4.png">http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure4.png</a> ).</span><br>> <br>> For the anthropogenic climate change skeptics who have emphasized that <br>> the warmest years for global average temperatures are 1998 and/or <br>> 2005, and since temperatures have declined or leveled, and that Arctic <br>> sea ice has "recovered" from the record low of 2007, indicating global
<br>> warming is not progressing, they may need to construct more powerful <br>> confirmation bias filters, if 2010 trends continue as they have. We <br>> are on course in 2010 to set a new warmest annual average global <br>> temperature year, and Arctic sea ice also is on track to tie or exceed <br>> the previous record low of 2007.<br>> <br>> Of course, these trends could change substantially.<br>> ----------------------------------------------<br>><br>><br>> June 8, 2010<br>><br>><br>> Arctic sea ice extent declines rapidly in May<br>><br>> In May, Arctic air temperatures remained above average, and sea ice <br>> extent declined at a rapid pace. At the end of the month, extent fell <br>> near the level recorded in 2006, the lowest in the satellite record <br>> for the end of May. Analysis from scientists at the University of <br>> Washington suggests that ice volume
has continued to decline compared <br>> to recent years. However, it is too soon to say whether Arctic ice <br>> extent will reach another record low this summer—that will depend on <br>> the weather and wind conditions over the next few months.<br>><br>> *Overview of conditions*<br>><br>> Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13.10 million square kilometers (5.06 <br>> million square miles) for the month of May, 500,000 square kilometers <br>> (193,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. The rate of ice <br>> extent decline for the month was -68,000 kilometers (-26,000 square <br>> miles) per day, almost 50% more than the average rate of -46,000 <br>> kilometers (18,000 square miles) per day. This rate of loss is the <br>> highest for the month of May during the satellite record.<br>><br>> Ice extent remained slightly above average in the Bering Sea, and <br>> below average in the Barents Sea north
of Scandinavia, and in Baffin Bay.<br>><br>> *Conditions in context*<br>><br>> As we noted in our May post, several regions of the Arctic experienced <br>> a late-season spurt in ice growth. As a result, ice extent reached its <br>> seasonal maximum much later than average, and in turn the melt season <br>> began almost a month later than average. As ice began to decline in <br>> April, the rate was close to the average for that time of year.<br>><br>> In sharp contrast, ice extent declined rapidly during the month of <br>> May. Much of the ice loss occurred in the Bering Sea and the Sea of <br>> Okhotsk, indicating that the ice in these areas was thin and <br>> susceptible to melt. Many polynyas <br><span>> <<a target="_blank" href="http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/words/word.pl?polynya">http://nsidc.org/cgi-bin/words/word.pl?polynya</a>>, areas of open water </span><br>> in the ice pack, opened up in the
regions north of Alaska, in the <br>> Canadian Arctic Islands, and in the Kara and Barents and Laptev seas.<br>><br>> The polynyas are clearly visible in high-resolution passive microwave <br>> images from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Radiometer (AMSR-E) <br><span>> <<a target="_blank" href="http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html">http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html</a>> aboard NASA’s Aqua </span><br>> satellite. What do current ice conditions mean for the minimum ice <br>> extent this fall? It is still too soon to say: although ice extent at <br>> present is relatively low, the amount of ice that survives the summer <br>> melt season will be largely determined by the wind and weather <br>> conditions over the next few months.<br>><br>> *May 2010 compared to past years*<br>><br>> Average ice extent for May 2010 was 480,000 square kilometers (185,000 <br>> square miles)
greater than the record low for May, observed in 2006, <br>> and 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) below the average <br>> extent for the month. The linear rate of decline for May over the 1979 <br>> to 2010 period is now -2.41% per decade.<br>><br>> The rate of decline through the month of May was the fastest in the <br>> satellite record; the previous year with the fastest daily rate of <br>> decline in May was 1980. By the end of the month, extent fell near the <br>> level recorded in 2006, the lowest in the satellite record for the end <br>> of May. Despite the rapid decline through May, average ice extent for <br>> the month was only the ninth lowest in the satellite record.<br>><br>> *Persistent warmth in the Arctic*<br>><br>> Arctic air temperatures averaged for May were above normal, continuing <br>> the temperature trend that has persisted since last winter. <br>> Temperatures were
2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) <br>> above average across much of the Arctic Ocean. A strong anticyclone <br>> centered over the Beaufort Sea produced southerly winds along the <br>> shores of Siberia (in the Laptev and East Siberian seas), resulting in <br>> warmer-than-average temperatures in this area. The Canadian Arctic <br>> Islands were an exception to the general trend, with temperatures <br>> slightly cooler than average over much of the region.<br>><br>> *Models indicate low ice volume*<br>><br>> Ice extent measurements provide a long-term view of the state of <br>> Arctic sea ice, but they only show the ice surface. Total ice volume <br>> is critical to the complete picture of sea ice decline. Numerous <br>> studies indicate that sea ice thickness and volume have declined along <br>> with ice extent; unfortunately, there are no continuous, Arctic-wide <br>> measurements of sea
ice volume. To fill that gap, scientists at the <br>> University of Washington have developed regularly updated estimates of <br>> ice volume, using a model called the Pan Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and <br>> Assimilation System (PIOMAS) <br><span>> <<a target="_blank" href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php</a>>.</span><br>><br>> PIOMAS uses observations and numerical models to make ongoing <br>> estimates of changes in sea ice volume. According to PIOMAS, the <br>> average Arctic sea ice volume for May 2010 was 19,000 cubic kilometers <br>> (4,600 cubic miles), the lowest May volume over the 1979 to 2010 <br>> period. May 2010 volume was 42% below the 1979 maximum, and 32% below <br>> the 1979 to 2009 May average. The May 2010 ice volume is also 2.5 <br>> standard deviations below the 1979 to 2010 linear trend for May
<br>> (–3,400 cubic kilometers, or -816 cubic miles, per decade).<br>><br>> PIOMAS blends satellite-observed sea ice concentrations into model <br>> calculations to estimate sea ice thickness and volume. Comparison with <br>> submarine, mooring, and satellite observations help increase the <br>> confidence of the model results. More information on the validation <br>> methods and results is available on the PIOMAS ice volume Web site <br>> <<a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php" target="_blank">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php</a>>.<br>><br>> *Further Reading*<br>><br>> The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook <br><span>> <<a target="_blank" href="http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/">http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/</a>>, an international, </span><br>> community-wide discussion of the upcoming September Arctic sea ice <br>>
minimum, is slated to be published in June 2010.<br>><br>> Gridded ICESat data are now available from the NASA Jet Propulsion <br><span>> Laboratory <<a target="_blank" href="http://rkwok.jpl.nasa.gov/icesat/index.html">http://rkwok.jpl.nasa.gov/icesat/index.html</a>>. This data </span><br>> provide an estimate of sea ice thickness based on elevation <br>> measurements, from 2004 to 2008.<br>><br>> *References *<br>><br>> Schweiger, Axel , Jinlun Zhang, Mike Steele, et al. Pan Arctic Ice <br>> Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS). <br>> <a href="http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php" target="_blank">http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php</a><br>><br>> /For previous analyses, please see the drop-down menu under Archives <br>> in the right navigation at the top of this page. /<br>><br>>
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