<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 5/13/10, <b class="gmail_sendername">Paul Rumelhart</b> <<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> wrote:</span></div>
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<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">The idea behind this proposal is that we should be concentrating on the<br>potential harm and not on the perceived causes. That way, we're covered<br>
no matter what the cause of the warming is. </blockquote>
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<div>If the hundreds of billions of tons of human CO2 emissions we have injected into the atmosphere are a significant contributing cause of the increase in global average temperature and the numerous environmental impacts now scientifically measured (sea level increase and ocean warming, ocean acidfication, Antarctica and Greenland ice mass loss, Arctic sea ice loss, mountain glacier loss, species shifting ranges, atmospheric water vapor increase, increases in extreme precipitation events, etc.) how will not now focusing on causes of climate change result in humanity "being covered no matter what the cause of the warming is."? If our CO2 emissions are a major cause of the increase in temperatures, continuing these emissions while waiting for more data will not result in humanity being "covered," but in an increase in the environmental, economic and human impacts from these emissions. </div>
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<div>Given the odds from this 2009 study from MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, to bet that our CO2 emissions are not a significant contributor to climate change is a very bad bet. Note the statement about the more recent study showing more temperature increases than previously estimated. As the study of climate science has progressed in the past decade, more evidence is mounting that the impacts of human activity on climate are of a greater magnitude then previously thought:</div>
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<div><a href="http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/roulette-0519.html">http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/roulette-0519.html</a></div>
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<div>Quote from website above:</div>
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<div>"The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees."</div>
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<div>Of course humanity should be now planning for profound impacts from climate change, some of which are very likley at this point, even if all human impacts on the environment stopped today. And more than just adapting to a changing environment, we should be investing in extreme geo-engineering proposals to modify global climate, which may become necessary, given the very low odds that humanity will significantly lower CO2 emissions (and other human impacts on climate) in the next few decades.</div>
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<div>Some nations are now planning to invest huge sums in protecting against the impacts of anthropogenic climate warming, such as sea level rise. The US should also be now planning to adapt to sea level increase.</div>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Consider the <span class="" id="st" name="st">Delta</span> Report from the <span class="" id="st" name="st">Netherlands</span>, stating that "Great urgency attaches to the implementation of this advice." regarding predictions of .65 to 1.3 meter sea level rise by 2100, and 2 to 4 meters by 2200, from climate change, with costs estimates of 40 plus billion in euros to implement a plan for flood protection through 2050. This report is prescient in indicating clearly that choices we are making now to mitigate climate change will have impacts for centuries, a time frame human economic and political planning rarely addresses:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies" target="_blank">http://www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies</a></p></div>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/deltareport_summary.pdf">http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/deltareport_summary.pdf</a><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/summary.pdf" target="_blank"></a></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/twelve_recommendations.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.deltacommissie.com/doc/twelve_recommendations.pdf</a></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett </p></div></div>
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