<div>If the global temperature data (GISS, NCDC, HadCRUT, JMA, and other data sets) that many climate scientists are confident is reliable that indicates a statistically significant long term global warming trend since the 1800s is in fact questionable, then we do not have sufficient reason to believe that the Earth is warming as a long term trend, from any cause, based on the temperature data. The climate may be undergoing random short term variations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In a couple of decades the Arctic, Greenland and mountain glaciers may recover, the shift of species in response to "climate change" may return to their previous habitat ranges, the increase in extreme precipitation events will lessen, droughts may decrease, ocean level rise may halt, and so forth... Of course, given the empirical facts of global ice mass loss, the shift of species habitat ranges, ocean level rise, and the increase in extreme precipitation events as atmospheric moisture content increases, an argument for a warming climate can be made independent of temperature records, though again the question of whether this is a longer term trend remains.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But I think those who argue for a high degree of uncertainty in climate science are in a bit of a quandary when they on the one hand insist that the state of climate science has too many unknowns and variables, that the climate system is too chaotic, to make reliable long term scientific predictions regarding human impacts, then claim that indeed the Earth is warming as a long term trend, but in response to mostly natural variables, such as solar changes, or coming out of the last ice age in part due to a Milankovitch cycle trend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To demonstrate that natural variables are altering climate to a warmer state as a long term trend involves answering some of the same skeptical arguments that are used to shed doubt on the claim that human activity is altering climate as a long term trend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If climate science is as uncertain as many of the skeptics of anthropogenic warming claim, the 1700 UK scientists who signed the following release from the MET Office are incompetent. I wrote incompetent rather than frauds because it is too fantastic to truly believe they are involved in some kind of deliberate conspiracy. If they are wrong, it is because they are making scientific mistakes:</div>
<div>:</div>
<div><a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/uk-science-statement.html">http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/uk-science-statement.html</a></div>
<div>
<h1>Statement from the UK science community </h1>
<p>10 December 2009</p>
<p>We, members of the UK science community, have the utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities. The evidence and the science are deep and extensive. They come from decades of painstaking and meticulous research, by many thousands of scientists across the world who adhere to the highest levels of professional integrity. That research has been subject to peer review and publication, providing traceability of the evidence and support for the scientific method. </p>
<p>The science of climate change draws on fundamental research from an increasing number of disciplines, many of which are represented here. As professional scientists, from students to senior professors, we uphold the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which concludes that ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ and that ‘Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations’.</p>
</div>
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<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br> </div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 12/22/09, <b class="gmail_sendername">Paul Rumelhart</b> <<a href="mailto:godshatter@yahoo.com">godshatter@yahoo.com</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">Or perhaps the globe is warming naturally, with only a little help from<br>mankind.<br><br>Paul<br><br>Dave wrote:<br>
> Well, since global warming is now a hoax (It must be a hoax, a majority<br>> of American's think that it is a hoax, and we ARE a democracy aren't<br>> we? This is why Bushama scuttled the Copenhagen talks.), this begs the<br>
> question:<br>><br>> How the heck did they manage to melt all the glaciers of the world?<br>> That is some trick, how did they pull it off?<br>><br>> Dave<br>><br>><br>> Tom Hansen wrote:<br>><br>
>> Courtesy of the Associated Press.<br>>><br>>> -----------------------------------------------<br>>><br>>> World's Highest Glacier is Set to Melt Into History<br>>><br>>> The Chacaltaya glacier ski run in Bolivia - once famous for being the<br>
>> highest in the world - is set to disappear completely within the next few<br>>> months. The melt is one element of a crisis in the country's water supply.<br>>><br>>> <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt0SUOBRpZE">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt0SUOBRpZE</a><br>
>><br>>> -----------------------------------------------<br>>><br>>> Seeya round town, Moscow.<br>>><br>>> Tom Hansen<br>>> Moscow, Idaho<br>>><br>>> "The Pessimist complains about the wind, the Optimist expects it to change<br>
>> and the Realist adjusts his sails."<br>>><br>>> - Unknown<br>>><br>>><br>>> =======================================================<br>>> List services made available by First Step Internet,<br>
>> serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.<br>>> <a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a><br>>> mailto:<a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>
>> =======================================================<br>>><br>>><br>>><br>>><br>><br>><br><br><br>=======================================================<br>List services made available by First Step Internet,<br>
serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.<br> <a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a><br> mailto:<a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>=======================================================<br>
</blockquote></div><br>