<h3 class=" ie7_class116"><a href="http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2008/04/17/read-my-lips-no-emissions-cuts-before-2025"><font color="#000000">Read my lips: no emissions cuts before 2025</font></a></h3>
<div class="Tag Full ie7_class118">By <a href="http://arstechnica.com/authors.ars/Dr+JonboyG"><font color="#9d0404">Jonathan M. Gitlin</font></a> | Published: April 17, 2008 - 10:36AM CT </div>
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<div class="Tag Full ie7_class118"><a href="http://arstechnica.com/authors.ars/Dr+JonboyG">http://arstechnica.com/authors.ars/Dr+JonboyG</a></div>
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<div class="Tag Full ie7_class118"><a href="http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2008/04/17/read-my-lips-no-emissions-cuts-before-2025">http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2008/04/17/read-my-lips-no-emissions-cuts-before-2025</a></div>
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<div class="Tag Full ie7_class118">It's been an interesting week for climate change, with significant news from both the academic and political communities. </div>
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<p>First up is research that was presented at a meeting of the European Geosciences Union, which has been taking place in Vienna, Austria. A team of researchers from the UK and Finland have been refining a computer model that calculates sea level rises, and their data is more than a little worrying. Their model, which accurately models the effect of temperature on sea levels over the past 2,000 years, suggests that the IPCC's prediction of a 30 cm rise in sea level by 2100 as more than a little optimistic—the work <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7349236.stm"><font color="#9d0404">places the likely figure</font></a> at between 80 and 150 cm. </p>
<p><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7349236.stm">http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7349236.stm</a><br></p>
<p>This isn't the first time that research has suggested that the IPCC's ocean level predictions might be optimistic; last year another team also predicted much greater rises in sea level by 2100 and, at the AAAS meeting in Boston, climate scientists could be heard saying similar things. The current study, from scientists at the <a href="http://www.pol.ac.uk/"><font color="#9d0404">Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory</font></a> in the UK, suggests that the rises in sea level they predict will primarily be a result of melting ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic, rather than from thermal expansion of existing bodies of water. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.pol.ac.uk/">http://www.pol.ac.uk/</a></p>
<p>Next, yesterday saw a speech given in the US by President Bush, where he addressed the US' ever-rising greenhouse gas emissions. In stark contrast to Europe, which has instituted an ambitious target for reducing emissions, President Bush proposed allowing US pollution to <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89695226"><font color="#9d0404">continue unabated</font></a> for another 17 years before leveling out. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89695226">http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89695226</a></p>
<p>Bush claimed that attempting to reduce emissions would wreak havoc on the US economy. This contention has been disputed, while studies such as the <a href="http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2006/10/30/5789"><font color="#9d0404">Stern Review</font></a> suggest that the cost of inaction is likely to be an order of magnitude higher than any mitigation attempts. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm">http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm</a></p>
<p><a href="http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2006/10/30/5789">http://arstechnica.com/journals/science.ars/2006/10/30/5789</a></p>
<p>Perhaps most significantly, the date of 2025 comes a full decade after the point the IPCC regards as the absolute latest we can act to avoid the looming crisis. Needless to say, there has been broad disapproval of the announcement, derided by many as "too little, too late." President Bush has been a vocal opponent of a cap-and-trade scheme for carbon, despite the effectiveness of a similar program in reducing acid rain. </p>
<p>Some have suggested that the President's plan is an attempt to provide political cover for Congressional opponents of the climate change bills currently making their way through the legislature. The Bush plan offers these politicians a fig-leaf to hide behind, allowing them to promote the 2025 goal as an alternative to the more immediate action called for by the existing bills. All three of the current 2008 presidential hopefuls are also proposing more stringent greenhouse gas emission plans, so, given President Bush's lame duck status, this proposal will likely drop off the map as of January 20th, 2009. </p>
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<p>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</p></div>