<div>To "Off List" contact in this thread:</div>
<div><br>I presented the current data from NOAA, which contradicts your assessment. You must think the NOAA data to be flawed:</div>
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<div><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp" target="_blank">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp</a></div>
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<div>In the statistical quicksand world of climate science, with more variables and methods of adding and subtracting them then can be understood by most people, the claims and counters claims can be incredible. </div>
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<div>I hardly think that a world wide combined (land and ocean) average temperature in 2007 as the fifth warmest in the 128 year record represents a "significant decline in worldwide temperatures," as you wrote. In fact, the land temperature data from NOAA for 2007 indicates the land temperature global average was the warmest on record. The first set of numbers are the anomaly above the average of the temperature record, ranking follows, and the warmest or next warmest year is given last, with its anomaly:</div>
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<div><a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp</a></div>
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<table class="anoms" id="year-to-date" style="MARGIN-BOTTOM: 1em">
<tbody>
<tr valign="center">
<th id="ytd-global">Land<br>Ocean<br>Land and Ocean </th>
<td class="nowrap"><br>+1.02°C (+1.84°F)<br>+0.38°C (+0.68°F)<br>+0.55°C (+0.99°F)</td>
<td class="nowrap"><br>warmest<br>9th warmest<br>5th warmest</td>
<td class="nowrap"><br>2005 (+0.97°C/1.75°F)<br>2003 (+0.48°C/0.86°F)<br>2005 (+0.60°C/1.08°F)<br></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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<div>Winter 2007-8 may have shown a significant decline in world wide temperatures, but one season does not qualify as a long term trend. We shall see what happens during the whole year 2008, as far as the continuing trend of the past decade of yearly global average temperature being significantly above the average for the 128 year record that NOAA sources.</div>
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<div>No one expects anthropogenic warming to be perfectly linear from year to year anyway, with every year warmer than the last, at least among the scientists I have read who are not deliberately seeking to find flaws in the consensus science on climate change. Several variables, from both human and natural sources, can cause cooling, so some future years may average significantly cooler. There is the increasing well understood impact of global dimming to consider, the cooling effect of human sourced aerosols in the atmosphere, which is masking global warming to a significant degree, and volcanic activity alone can lower world wide temperatures due to emissions blocking sunlight. </div>
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<div>China is dumping huge amounts of dirty coal burning sourced aerosols into the atmosphere, pollution that is drifting across the Pacific and hitting the USA, so though the CO2 from this coal burning will have a long term warming effect (CO2 can remain in the atmosphere for 100 years), the aerosols have a short term cooling effect, till they dissipate. </div>
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<div>From NOAA:</div>
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<div><a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp">http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/global.html#gtemp</a></div>
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<div>Temperature Trends</div>
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<p style="MARGIN-TOP: 1em">During the past century, <a title="Link to a timeseries plot of land and ocean data" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2007/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif">global surface temperatures</a> have increased at a rate near 0.05°C/decade (0.09°F/decade), but this trend has increased to a rate of approximately 0.15°C/decade (0.27°F/decade) during the past 25 to 30 years. There have been two sustained periods of warming, one beginning around 1910 and ending around 1945, and the most recent beginning about 1976. Temperatures during the latter period of warming have increased at a rate comparable to the rates of warming projected to occur during the next century with continued increases of <a title="Link to a Global Warming FAQ" href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html">anthropogenic greenhouse gases.</a></p>
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<div>Here is the URL to the temperature data under discussion that might contradict NOAA's report on 2007 average global temperature, though I am not not sure it really does contradict NOAA, if understood correctly:</div>
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<div><span class="e" id="q_1189085fe45d8201_1"><font face="Arial" color="navy" size="2"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/" target="_blank">http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/</a> </span></font></span></div>
<div><span class="e"><font face="Arial" color="navy" size="2"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></span></font></span> </div>
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<div><span class="e"><font face="Arial" color="navy" size="2"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett </span></font></span></div>
<div><span class="e"><font face="Arial" color="navy" size="2"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></span></font> </span></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Roger et. al.</span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Do you believe the past decade has not revealed any average increase in warming over other decades in the past century for the global average? Because the data clearly shows otherwise, rather dramatically, given that ten of the warmest global temperature averages have occurred since 1997:</span></font></p>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">From the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration:</span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071213_climateupdate.html" target="_blank">http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071213_climateupdate.html</a></span></font></p>
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<p><font face="Symbol" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Symbol">·</span></font> Including 2007, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997. The global average surface temperature has risen between 0.6°C and 0.7°C since the start of the twentieth century, and the rate of increase since 1976 has been approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend. </p>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">More scientific sources regarding global average temperatures the past decade:</span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071213101419.htm" target="_blank">http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071213101419.htm</a></span></font></p>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><br><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=25054&Cr=climate&Cr1=change" target="_blank">http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=25054&Cr=climate&Cr1=change</a></span></font></p>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><br>------------------------------------------</span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</span></font></p></div>
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<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> </span></font></p></div>
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<p><span><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">On 3/3/08, <b><span style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">lfalen</span></b> <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:lfalen@turbonet.com" target="_blank">lfalen@turbonet.com</a>> wrote:</span></font></span> </p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Ted Thanks for posting this. This is the kind of research we need, regardless of where any climate change may take us. There has bee no increase in warming for the last 10 years, although C02 levels continue to raise( Bob Carter, Cimate Scientist). It is not known with certainty whether temperature will go up or down. Because of air pollution and the fact that oil is finite we need research on alternatives.<br>
Roger<br>-----Original message-----<br>From: "Ted Moffett" <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank">starbliss@gmail.com</a><br>Date: Sat, 01 Mar 2008 13:39:31 -0800<br>
To: "Donovan Arnold" <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com" target="_blank">donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com</a><br>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Synthetic Life Forms: Craig Venter On ClimateChange<br>
<br>> Donovan et. al.<br>><br>> Actually, many do not concede that the Earth's climate is warming as a long<br>> term trend, or if it is, that human activity is the primary cause. This<br>> skeptics point of view has been expressed by many on Vision2020. So while<br>
> anthropogenic primarily CO2 emission related climate change is regarded with<br>> a high probability it is a correct theory by most scientists, the debate<br>> continues. And of course there are things you can do to reduce your "carbon<br>
> footprint", as they say. These options are so well known I will not list<br>> them.<br>><br>> What is interesting about Craig Venter is the technology of biology and<br>> genetics that his business is developing, applied to the problems of<br>
> advanced energy sources that can mitigate CO2 emission induced climate<br>> change. This is both promising and frightening, given he is developing the<br>> technology and advocating the advantages of creating synthetic life forms:<br>
><br>> <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/venter.dimbleby07/venter.dimbleby07_index.html" target="_blank">http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/venter.dimbleby07/venter.dimbleby07_index.html</a><br>
><br>><br>> Right now extensively modified bacteria are being used to make food<br>> additives and industrial chemicals. DuPont has a plant in the US state of<br>> Tennessee with four very large silos where they are using metabolically<br>
> engineered bacteria to convert sugar into a new polymer, propanediol which<br>> is the key component in their stain resistant carpets and clothing. Several<br>> teams, including my own, are modifying bacteria to make the next generation<br>
> biofuels. For example, my team has a new fuel chemical made from sugars as<br>> a starting material that has the potential to be one of the first green jet<br>> fuels.<br>><br>> But we don't always have to modify bacteria or design new ones. What has<br>
> occurred on Earth from Darwinian evolution is pretty amazing in that the<br>> unique metabolism of these microbial powerhouses can often provide exactly<br>> what we need. For instance, we have a team at my institute headed by Ken<br>
> Nealson that has developed microbial fuel cells using naturally occurring<br>> bacteria. These organisms can process human and animal waste to produce<br>> electricity and or clean water.<br>><br>> At my company Synthetic Genomics, we have a major program underway in<br>
> collaboration with BP to see if we can use naturally occurring microbes to<br>> metabolize coal into methane which can then be harvested as natural gas.<br>> While not a renewable source of carbon, it could provide as much as a 10<br>
> fold improvement over mining and burning coal. We also have organisms that<br>> can convert CO2 into methane thereby providing a renewable source of fuel.<br>><br>> The biggest question in my mind is the one of scale. Last year we consumed<br>
> more than 83 million barrels of oil per day or 30 billion barrels during the<br>> year. In addition we used over 3 billion tons of coal. These are mind<br>> boggling numbers and the only way that I can see replacing oil and coal is<br>
> through a widely distributed system. If there were one million<br>> bio-refineries around the globe each one would still need to produce 17,000<br>> liters per day. For the UK my vision would entail thousands of<br>
> bio-refineries distributed around the country near where the fuel would be<br>> consumed and where the starting raw material such as cellulose would be<br>> available. On a global scale there will be millions of new fuel producers<br>
> perhaps favoring the agricultural rich developing world. This could be the<br>> ultimate disruptive model by changing the entire infrastructure for energy<br>> production and consumption and helping us toward a carbon neutral world.<br>
><br>> In closing:<br>><br>> It is my hope that we can embrace, not fear, the necessary science to help<br>> our planet.<br>> I feel it is imperative that we begin to find ways to adapt to climate<br>> change, while at the same time working to mitigate it. Unfortunately we are<br>
> already on a path toward significant change, but if we apply ourselves I<br>> believe we can find ways to create alternatives to burning oil and coal. We<br>> need multiple simultaneous approaches to solve this problem, with the goal<br>
> of net zero carbon emissions to stabilize atmospheric concentrations and<br>> ensure our survival.<br>><br>> Craig Venter<br>> ------------------------------------------<br>> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br>
><br>> On 3/1/08, Donovan Arnold <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com" target="_blank">donovanjarnold2005@yahoo.com</a>> wrote:<br>> ><br>> > So what do you want me to do about this, Ted?<br>
> ><br>> > So the world is getting hotter. We are were aware before this report. Is<br>> > there really anything I can do to cool it down? I think not.<br>> ><br>> > Best Regards,<br>> ><br>
> > Donovan<br>> ><br>> > *Ted Moffett <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com" target="_blank">starbliss@gmail.com</a>>* wrote:<br>> ><br>
> ><br>> ><br>> > <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/venter.dimbleby07/venter.dimbleby07_index.html" target="_blank">http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/venter.dimbleby07/venter.dimbleby07_index.html</a><br>
> ><br>> > There has been much debate about climate change perhaps because we cannot<br>> > see carbon dioxide when we exhale, or when we burn oil and coal to heat our<br>> > homes, or use petrol to power our cars or fly planes. We do, however, have<br>
> > scientific instruments that can accurately measure what we humans produce<br>> > and the increasing amount of carbon that we are adding to our environment.<br>> > The data is irrefutable--carbon dioxide concentrations have been steadily<br>
> > increasing in our atmosphere as a result of human activity since the<br>> > earliest measurements began. We know that on the order of 4.1 billion tons<br>> > of carbon are being added to and staying in our atmosphere each year. We<br>
> > know that burning fossil fuels and deforestation are the principal<br>> > contributors to the increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in our<br>> > atmosphere. We know that increasing CO2 concentrations has the same effect<br>
> > as the glass walls and roof of a greenhouse. It lets the energy from the sun<br>> > easily penetrate but limits its escape, hence the term greenhouse gas.<br>> > Observational and modeling studies have confirmed the association of<br>
> > increasing CO2 concentrations with the change in average global temperatures<br>> > over the last 120 years. Between 1906 and 2005 the average global<br>> > temperature has increased 0.74 degrees C. This may not seem like very<br>
> > much, but it can have profound effects on the strength of storms and the<br>> > survival of species including coral reefs.<br>> > Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the warmest years since 1850.<br>
> > While no one knows for certain the consequences of this continuing unchecked<br>> > warming, some have argued it could result in catastrophic changes, such as<br>> > the disruption of the Gulf Steam which keeps the UK out of the ice age or<br>
> > even the possibility of the Greenland ice sheet sliding into the Atlantic<br>> > Ocean. Whether or not these devastating changes occur, we are conducting a<br>> > dangerous experiment with our planet. One we need to stop.<br>
> > The developed world including the United States, England and Europe<br>> > contribute disproportionately to the environmental carbon, but the<br>> > developing world is rapidly catching up. As the world population increases<br>
> > from 6.5 billion people to 9 billion over the next 45 years and countries<br>> > like India and China continue to industrialize, some estimates indicate that<br>> > we will be adding over 20 billion tons of carbon a year to the atmosphere.<br>
> > Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause<br>> > further warming and induce many changes to the global climate that could be<br>> > more extreme than those observed to date. This means we can expect more<br>
> > climate change; more ice cap melts, rising sea levels, warmer oceans and<br>> > therefore greater storms, as well as more droughts and floods, all which<br>> > compromise food and fresh water production.<br>
> > The increase in population coupled with climate change will tax every<br>> > aspect of our lives. In a world already struggling to keep up with demand,<br>> > will we be able to provide the basics of food, clean water, shelter and fuel<br>
> > to these new citizens of Earth? And will governments be able to cope with<br>> > new emerging infections, storms, wildfires, and global conflicts?<br>> > So is there any way of avoiding these apocalyptic visions of the future<br>
> > coming true? Many have argued that we simply need to conserve, to alter and<br>> > regress our standard of living and block the industrialization of developing<br>> > countries. In my view this is extremely naive thinking. Furthermore, even<br>
> > the most optimistic models on climate change show a dramatically altered<br>> > planet Earth going forward even if we embrace all alternative options such<br>> > as wind and solar energy, and electric cars. Our entire world economy and<br>
> > the ability of modern society to provide life's basics, depend on the very<br>> > industrialization that contributes to our possible demise.<br>> > Yet, sadly, very little thinking, planning or projections about how to<br>
> > cope with the carbon problem and climate change have taken into account the<br>> > capabilities of modern science to produce what we have long needed to help<br>> > solve these global threats.<br>> > It is clear to me that we need more approaches and creative solutions. We<br>
> > need new disruptive ideas and technologies to solve these critical global<br>> > issues. This is where, I believe, biology and genomics, come in.<br>> > ------------------------------------------<br>
> > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</span></font></p></div></div></div></div></blockquote></div><br></div>