[From nobody Fri Oct 26 11:11:28 2007 Received: from trumpet.fsr.net ([64.126.132.9]) by mail.turbonet.com (Cactus Mail Server v9.0.0) with ESMTP id FPJ43825; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:09:25 -0700 Received: from trumpet.fsr.net (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by trumpet.fsr.net (8.13.6/8.13.6) with ESMTP id l9Q57A9P073214; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:07:13 -0700 (PDT) (envelope-from vision2020-bounces@moscow.com) Received: from mail-gw.fsr.net (mail-gw.fsr.net [64.126.132.22]) by trumpet.fsr.net (8.13.6/8.13.6) with ESMTP id l9Q561oo070748 for <vision2020@lists.fsr.com>; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:06:01 -0700 (PDT) (envelope-from owner-vision2020@mail-gw.fsr.net) Received: from psmtp.com (exprod5mx214.postini.com [64.18.0.73]) by mail-gw.fsr.net (8.13.1/8.12.3) with SMTP id l9Q56Xq4032507 for <vision2020@firststepinternet.com>; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:06:34 -0700 (PDT) (envelope-from sunilramalingam@hotmail.com) Received: from source ([64.126.132.21]) (using TLSv1) by exprod5mx214.postini.com ([64.18.4.10]) with SMTP; Fri, 26 Oct 2007 01:06:26 EDT Received: from psmtp.com (exprod5mx234.postini.com [64.18.0.120]) by mx3.fsr.net (8.13.6/8.13.6) with SMTP id l9Q5675s006886 for <vision2020@moscow.com>; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:06:08 -0700 (PDT) (envelope-from sunilramalingam@hotmail.com) Received: from source ([65.54.246.101]) by exprod5mx234.postini.com ([64.18.4.10]) with SMTP; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:06:25 PDT Received: from hotmail.com ([64.4.17.48]) by bay0-omc1-s29.bay0.hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(6.0.3790.3959); Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:05:10 -0700 Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:05:10 -0700 Message-ID: <BAY111-F38524901322D22E53B1BEBBD960@phx.gbl> Received: from 64.4.17.200 by by111fd.bay111.hotmail.msn.com with HTTP; Fri, 26 Oct 2007 05:05:05 GMT X-Originating-IP: [71.161.8.187] X-Originating-Email: [sunilramalingam@hotmail.com] X-Sender: sunilramalingam@hotmail.com In-Reply-To: <caaad9a41119a9b4314c0ec1139789c0@turbonet.com> From: "Sunil Ramalingam" <sunilramalingam@hotmail.com> Cc: vision2020@moscow.com Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2007 22:05:05 -0700 Mime-Version: 1.0 X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Oct 2007 05:05:10.0315 (UTC) FILETIME=[C895D7B0:01C8178D] X-pstn-levels: (S:99.90000/99.90000 R:95.9108 P:95.9108 M:97.0282 C:98.6951 ) X-pstn-levels: (S:99.90000/99.90000 R:95.9108 P:95.9108 M:97.0282 C:98.6951 ) Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity X-BeenThere: vision2020@moscow.com X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 Precedence: list List-Id: Moscow/Latah county community discussion list <vision2020.moscow.com> List-Unsubscribe: <http://mailman.fsr.com/mailman/listinfo/vision2020>, <mailto:vision2020-request@moscow.com?subject=unsubscribe> List-Archive: <http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020> List-Post: <mailto:vision2020@moscow.com> List-Help: <mailto:vision2020-request@moscow.com?subject=help> List-Subscribe: <http://mailman.fsr.com/mailman/listinfo/vision2020>, <mailto:vision2020-request@moscow.com?subject=subscribe> Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="===============1986918252==" Sender: vision2020-bounces@moscow.com Errors-To: vision2020-bounces@moscow.com X-Spam-Status: No, hits=3.01 required=5.00 tests=BAYES_50=0.00, NO_RDNS2=0.01, OTHER=3.0 version=3.2.1 X-Spam-Level: *** X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.2.1 (1.0) on mail.turbonet.com --===============1986918252== Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed Roger, what is the basis of your statement: 'The extent of the fires we exacerbated by the dense underbrush that resulltd from environmetalist not allowing it to be cleared out,' and which fires are you talking about? Sunil >From: lfalen <lfalen@turbonet.com> >Reply-To: lfalen <lfalen@turbonet.com> >To: "Ted Moffett" <starbliss@gmail.com>, "Bruce and Jean Livingston" ><jeanlivingston@turbonet.com> >CC: Moscow Vision 2020 <vision2020@moscow.com> >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity >Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2007 12:18:13 -0700 > >Ted >Whether published in "Science" or not there are a few things missing. I >think that 1934 was hoitter than it is now. Wheather it was dryer or not I >don't know. These fire were predominatly the result of arson. The extent of >the fires we exacerbated by the dense underbrush that resulltd from >environmetalist not allowing it to be cleared out. >Roger >-----Original message----- >From: "Ted Moffett" starbliss@gmail.com >Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2007 13:45:27 -0700 >To: "Bruce and Jean Livingston" jeanlivingston@turbonet.com >Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity > > > All- > > > > Regarding the ongoing Southern California fires, and the very important > > issue of Western US fire potential (especially in Idaho) and causes in > > general, the following fact and science based sources are critical. > > > > Read about the record drought and heat waves for Southern California >(both > > this year), coupled with the findings from the research on Western USA > > fires, in the Science magazine article below, co-authored by the >scientist, > > Thomas Swetnam (University of Arizona), who I referenced at the start of > > this thread, who was interviewed on CBS 60 Minutes last weekend on the > > subject of wild land fire, with astonishing timing, given the explosion >in > > the Southern California fires that occurred immediately after: > > > > >http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Western_US_States_Swelter_Under_Record_Heatwave_999.html > > > > *Parched California has driest 'rainy season' on record* > > > > Los Angeles (AFP) July 1 - Los Angeles suffered through the driest rainy > > season on record in 2007, marking the least amount of precipitation here >in > > the 130 years > > > > http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2838.htm > > > > In Los Angeles, the lack of rainfall led to the driest water-year to >date > > for the city since records began in 1877. From July 1, 2006, through the >end > > of March, downtown Los Angeles had received only 2.47 inches of rain, >almost > > one foot below the normal amount of rainfall for the period. > > > > In the West, where mountain snowpack is relied upon to supply water >needs > > throughout the region, below-average rain and snowfall have become > > increasingly common. In only two of the past nine years has snowpack on > > April 1 been at or above the long-term average in at least half the >region. > > -------------- > > > > For those who wish to skip most of the Science magazine article, here is >a > > critical finding of their research, indicating human land use is not the > > cause of the documented increase (note not the cause of the "increase," >not > > that humans do not start fires) in Western USA fires in recent decades: > > > > http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940 > > > > We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western >United > > States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and > > land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased > > suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire > > frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The >greatest > > increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where > > land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are > > strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an > > earlier spring snowmelt. > > -------------------- > > > > I will excerpt a few more paragraphs from this article: > > > > > > *Science* 18 August 2006: > > Vol. 313. no. 5789, pp. 940 - 943 > > DOI: 10.1126/science.1128834 > > Prev <http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/313/5789/936> | Table >of > > Contents <http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol313/issue5789/index.dtl> >| > > Next <http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/313/5789/944> > > Research Articles Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. >Forest > > Wildfire Activity *A. L. > > >Westerling,1,2*<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#COR1> > > H. > > G. Hidalgo,1 D. R. Cayan,1,3 T. W. Swetnam4 * > > > > http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940 > > > > We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western >United > > States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and > > land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased > > suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire > > frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The >greatest > > increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where > > land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are > > strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an > > earlier spring snowmelt. > > ------ > > > > Snow carries over a substantial portion of the winter precipitation that > > falls in western mountains, releasing it more gradually in late spring >and > > early summer, providing an important contribution to spring and summer >soil > > moisture >(*35*<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF35>). > > An earlier snowmelt can lead to an earlier, longer dry season, providing > > greater opportunities for large fires due both to the longer period in >which > > ignitions could potentially occur and to the greater drying of soils and > > vegetation. Consequently, it is not surprising that the incidence of > > wildfires is strongly associated with snowmelt timing. > > > > Changes in spring and summer temperatures associated with an early >spring > > snowmelt come in the context of a marked trend over the period of >analysis. > > Regionally averaged spring and summer temperatures for 1987 to 2003 were > > 0.87°C higher than those for 1970 to 1986. Spring and summer >temperatures for > > 1987 to 2003 were the warmest since the start of the record in 1895, >with 6 > > years in the 90th percentile—the most for any 17-year period since the >start > > of the record in 1895 through 2003—whereas only 1 year in the >preceding 17 > > years ranked in the 90th percentile. Likewise, 73% of early years since >1970 > > occurred in 1987 to 2003 (Fig. > > 1<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#FIG1> > > ). > > > > -------- > > > > If the average length and intensity of summer drought increases in the > > Northern Rockies and mountains elsewhere in the western United States, >an > > increased frequency of large wildfires will lead to changes in forest > > composition and reduced tree densities, thus affecting carbon pools. >Current > > estimates indicate that western U.S. forests are responsible for 20 to >40% > > of total U.S. carbon sequestration > > (*38*<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF38>, > > *39* <http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF39>). >If > > wildfire trends continue, at least initially, this biomass burning will > > result in carbon release, suggesting that the forests of the western >United > > States may become a source of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide >rather > > than a sink, even under a relatively modest temperature-increase >scenario (* > > 38* <http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF38>, > > *39*<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF39>). > > Moreover, a recent study has shown that warmer, longer growing seasons >lead > > to reduced CO2 uptake in high-elevation forests, particularly during > > droughts >(*40*<http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF40>). > > Hence, the projected regional warming and consequent increase in >wildfire > > activity in the western United States is likely to magnify the threats >to > > human communities and ecosystems, and substantially increase the >management > > challenges in restoring forests and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. > > > > ------ > > > > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett > > > > > >======================================================= > List services made available by First Step Internet, > serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994. > http://www.fsr.net > mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com >======================================================= --===============1986918252== Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Content-Disposition: inline ======================================================= List services made available by First Step Internet, serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994. http://www.fsr.net mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com ======================================================= --===============1986918252==--]