<div>Paul et. al.</div>
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<div>Thanks for your detailed depiction of the Santa Anna winds, that I recall experiencing in Southern California in the 1960s. And who can forget the line from the song "Babylon Sisters," from the album "Gaucho" by Steely Dan, "here come those Santa Anna winds again:"
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<div><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_wind">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_wind</a></div>
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<div>Paul wrote:</div>
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<div>Did scientists who believe in human-induced<br>global warming predict stronger-than-normal Santa Ana winds?<br>---------</div>
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<div><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940">http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940</a><br><br>The Science magazine article I presented on Western USA wildfire activity (note subject heading) focused on the impacts of earlier Spring arrival, earlier snow pack melt, and rising temperatures, connected to a longer and more intense fire season, on average, for the whole Western USA. They avoided making any claims as to what is causing this climate change. I did not say that the stronger Santa Anna winds the past week were directly tied to global warming, though they may be, nor does the Science magazine article mention the Santa Anna winds, that I read. However, the extreme drought in Southern California, in some areas the most extreme in 130 years, is without a doubt in part responsible for the intensity of the wild fires this past week, along with the Santa Ana.
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<div>Is this tied to global warming? </div>
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<div>We have to distinguish between "weather" and "climate." "Weather" is local and variable in a way that global climate "climate" is not. Consider the Little Ice Age that Northern Europe and Greenland experienced (around the 1300s) that is considered a primary factor in driving the Norse out of their colonies. The global average change in temperature during this period was small, compared to the temperature change from the height of the last ice age to now, but if you were the Norse in Greenland you would have thought the next major ice age was coming. The drought this year in California may or may not be tied to global warming (it may be "weather" rather than "climate change") but the work of climate scientists predicts that on average globally, extreme drought will become more common due to anthropogenic global warming.
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<div>However, the conclusions of the scientists who presented their research on Western USA fires in Science magazine were looking at broad trends across the entire Western USA, and how these trends are influencing the documented increase in fires during the fire season in the Western USA. These conclusions are far more certain regarding connections to global warming and climate change, than is the drought in Southern California, given they extend over the entire Western USA, although the Western USA is not alone a large enough region of the planet to base solid conclusions regarding global climate change. The data for anthropogenic global warming as "climate change" is planetary wide.
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<div>Paul also wrote:</div>
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<div>It seems reasonable that warmer air can dry out drier areas more, due to an<br>increased evaporative effect. However, warmer air can hold more<br>moisture, making wetter areas wetter. More water vapor in the air can
<br>act as a greenhouse gas, however more cloud cover causes more of the<br>Sun's rays to be reflected back into space, and more actual rainfall<br>cools the earth. It still seems to be six of one, half a dozen of the
<br>other. </div>
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<div>Your assessment that the variables you discuss above amount to "six of one, half a dozen of the others" is an opinion that is not supported by the work of many climate scientists. It is predicted that increased evaporation of H20 due to anthropogenic global warming will have a net climate forcing effect to further increase global warming due to increased water vapor, not offset by cloud cover increased albedo. Water vapor is by far the most powerful global warming atmospheric variable. I could list sources for this scientific assessment. Also, this discussion can be found parsed in detail at:
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<div><a href="http://www.realclimate.org">http://www.realclimate.org</a></div>
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<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div>