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Again with the selected experts. <br><br>Ok...so you win on that front in that I refuse to play along. Point is, which you REFUSE to acknowledge, this is not the first time earth's history has seen this type of activity nor will it be the last.<br><br>So please - continue on with your doomsday scenarios and good luck in reducing your stress level over it. It simply is not worth the effort to continue this discussion. I will just go back to what I started some time ago - deleting your e-mails as they come up.<br><br>And to set things clear - I am NOT saying we do not need to make changes. I just will not fall into the "Chicken Little" mold of looking at things. What you are doing is not improving anyone's life; certainly, it is not improving yours.<br><br>J :]<br><br><br><blockquote><hr>Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2007 13:45:27 -0700<br>From: starbliss@gmail.com<br>To: jeanlivingston@turbonet.com<br>CC: vision2020@moscow.com<br>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity<br><br><div>All-</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Regarding the ongoing Southern California fires, and the very important issue of Western US fire potential (especially in Idaho) and causes in general, the following fact and science based sources are critical.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Read about the record drought and heat waves for Southern California (both this year), coupled with the findings from the research on Western USA fires, in the Science magazine article below, co-authored by the scientist, Thomas Swetnam (University of Arizona), who I referenced at the start of this thread, who was interviewed on CBS 60 Minutes last weekend on the subject of wild land fire, with astonishing timing, given the explosion in the Southern California fires that occurred immediately after:
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Western_US_States_Swelter_Under_Record_Heatwave_999.html" target="_blank">http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Western_US_States_Swelter_Under_Record_Heatwave_999.html</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span class="EC_BL"><font size="2"><b>Parched California has driest 'rainy season' on record</b></font></span></div>
<div><span class="EC_BL"><font size="2"><br>Los Angeles (AFP) July 1 - Los Angeles suffered through the driest rainy season on record in 2007, marking the least amount of precipitation here in the 130 years </font></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2838.htm" target="_blank">http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2838.htm</a></div>
<div><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"></font> </div>
<div><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">In Los Angeles, the lack of rainfall led to the driest water-year to date for the city since records began in 1877. From July 1, 2006, through the end of March, downtown Los Angeles had received only
2.47 inches of rain, almost one foot below the normal amount of rainfall for the period.</font></div>
<div>
<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">In the West, where mountain snowpack is relied upon to supply water needs throughout the region, below-average rain and snowfall have become increasingly common. In only two of the past nine years has snowpack on April 1 been at or above the long-term average in at least half the region.
</font><BR></div>
<div>--------------</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For those who wish to skip most of the Science magazine article, here is a critical finding of their research, indicating human land use is not the cause of the documented increase (note not the cause of the "increase," not that humans do not start fires) in Western USA fires in recent decades:
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940" target="_blank">http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We compiled a comprehensive<sup> </sup>database of large wildfires in western United States forests<sup> </sup>since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface<sup> </sup>data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly
<sup> </sup>and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency,<sup> </sup>longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The<sup> </sup>greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies
<sup> </sup>forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect<sup> </sup>on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring<sup> </sup>and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.<sup>
</sup></div>
<div>--------------------</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I will excerpt a few more paragraphs from this article:</div>
<div> </div>
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<p id="EC_article-info"><em>Science</em> 18 August 2006:<br>Vol. 313. no. 5789, pp. 940 - 943<br>DOI: 10.1126/science.1128834</p></td>
<td>
<div id="EC_page-nav"><a class="EC_page-nav_prev" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/313/5789/936" target="_blank">Prev</a> | <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/vol313/issue5789/index.dtl" target="_blank">Table of Contents</a> | <a class="EC_ EC_page-nav_next" title="Go to next article" href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/313/5789/944" target="_blank">
Next</a> </div></td></tr></tbody></table>
<h2>Research Articles</h2>
<div id="EC_LegacyContent">
<h2>Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity </h2><strong>A. L. Westerling,<sup>1</sup><sup>,2</sup><sup><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#COR1" target="_blank">*</a></sup>
H. G. Hidalgo,<sup>1</sup> D. R. Cayan,<sup>1</sup><sup>,3</sup> T. W. Swetnam<sup>4</sup> </strong></div></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940" target="_blank">http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>We compiled a comprehensive<sup> </sup>database of large wildfires in western United States forests<sup> </sup>since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface<sup> </sup>data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly
<sup> </sup>and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency,<sup> </sup>longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The<sup> </sup>greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies
<sup> </sup>forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect<sup> </sup>on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring<sup> </sup>and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.<sup>
</sup></div>
<div><sup>------</sup></div>
<div>
Snow carries over a substantial portion of the winter precipitation<sup> </sup>that falls in western mountains, releasing it more gradually<sup> </sup>in late spring and early summer, providing an important contribution
<sup> </sup>to spring and summer soil moisture (<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF35" target="_blank"><i>35</i></a>). An earlier snowmelt<sup> </sup>can lead to an earlier, longer dry season, providing greater
<sup> </sup>opportunities for large fires due both to the longer period<sup> </sup>in which ignitions could potentially occur and to the greater<sup> </sup>drying of soils and vegetation. Consequently, it is not surprising
<sup> </sup>that the incidence of wildfires is strongly associated with<sup> </sup>snowmelt timing.<sup> </sup>
<BR>Changes in spring and summer temperatures associated with an<sup> </sup>early spring snowmelt come in the context of a marked trend<sup> </sup>over the period of analysis. Regionally averaged spring and<sup> </sup>summer temperatures for 1987 to 2003 were
0.87°C higher<sup> </sup>than those for 1970 to 1986. Spring and summer temperatures<sup> </sup>for 1987 to 2003 were the warmest since the start of the record<sup> </sup>in 1895, with 6 years in the 90th percentile—the most
<sup> </sup>for any 17-year period since the start of the record in 1895<sup> </sup>through 2003—whereas only 1 year in the preceding 17 years<sup> </sup>ranked in the 90th percentile. Likewise, 73% of early years<sup> </sup>
since 1970 occurred in 1987 to 2003 (<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#FIG1" target="_blank">Fig. 1</a>).<sup> </sup><BR>
<sup>--------</sup><BR>
If the average length and intensity of summer drought increases<sup> </sup>in the Northern Rockies and mountains elsewhere in the western<sup> </sup>United States, an increased frequency of large wildfires will<sup> </sup>
lead to changes in forest composition and reduced tree densities,<sup> </sup>thus affecting carbon pools. Current estimates indicate that<sup> </sup>western U.S. forests are responsible for 20 to 40% of total<sup> </sup>U.S
. carbon sequestration (<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF38" target="_blank"><i>38</i></a>, <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF39" target="_blank"><i>39</i></a>). If wildfire trends continue,
<sup> </sup>at least initially, this biomass burning will result in carbon<sup> </sup>release, suggesting that the forests of the western United States<sup> </sup>may become a source of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide
<sup> </sup>rather than a sink, even under a relatively modest temperature-increase<sup> </sup>scenario (<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF38" target="_blank"><i>38</i></a>, <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF39" target="_blank">
<i>39</i></a>). Moreover, a recent study has shown that warmer,<sup> </sup>longer growing seasons lead to reduced CO<sub>2</sub> uptake in high-elevation<sup> </sup>forests, particularly during droughts (<a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940#REF40" target="_blank">
<i>40</i></a>). Hence, the projected<sup> </sup>regional warming and consequent increase in wildfire activity<sup> </sup>in the western United States is likely to magnify the threats<sup> </sup>to human communities and ecosystems, and substantially increase
<sup> </sup>the management challenges in restoring forests and reducing<sup> </sup>greenhouse gas emissions.<sup> </sup><BR>
<sup>------</sup><BR>
<sup>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</sup><BR></div>
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