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<div>Watch out, Kai: Yuma is at elevation 138' above sea level.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>m.</div>
<div><br></div>
<div>At 2:48 PM -0700 9/10/07, Ted Moffett wrote:</div>
<blockquote type="cite" cite> </blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>All-</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite> </blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>The NOAA study I referenced focused on
Arctic sea ice loss, which, while a great environmental and ecosystem
disaster, associated with problems caused by global warming
that are planetary wide, will not cause sea levels to rise. Most
of the Arctic ice is floating on the ocean, so it is displacing its
weight in liquid water. The main sources of ice melt that will
cause sea levels to rise dramatically are Greenland and Antarctica,
where the ice is on land above water. The potential is for sea
level rise of over 150 feet. There are verified measurements
that both Greenland and Antarctic ice is threatening ocean level
rise. A skeptic might argue that snow fall will replace the ice
as fast as it melts, even assuming global warming is occurring.
The increased atmospheric moisture caused by global warming will cause
an increase in snow fall over Greenland or Antarctica. But with
profound global warming of, let's say, 5 C. average global
temperatures, it is very doubtful the melting could be offset by
increasing snow fall.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite> </blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>The Arctic ice is melting extremely fast
due to the effects of albedo (a term for the reflectivity of a body of
surface). Ice or snow reflects a large amount of solar
radiation. When it melts and exposes the ocean, as in Arctic
ice, the darker water absorbs more energy and stores it, increasing
the rate of the melting of ice. A snow ball effect, no pun
intended. When or if land areas on Greenland or Antarctica
become more exposed as ice melts, this will also increase albedo,
accelerating the melting, though perhaps not as fast
as in the case of the Arctic ice over water.
Antarctica has already has massive ice sheets break apart on the edges
of this continent, sheets that have been stable for thousands of
years, increasing the rate of movement of glaciers that dump into the
ocean, exposing warmer water to the edges of Antarctica, increasing
melt rate in this area.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite> </blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Some scientists think snow fall
replacement in the interior of Antarctica is increasing, helping to
offset melting of glaciers on the edges.</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite> </blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>Ted Moffett <br>
<br>
</blockquote>
<blockquote type="cite" cite>On 9/10/07,<b> Mark Solomon</b> <<a
href="mailto:msolomon@moscow.com">msolomon@moscow.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
<blockquote>Hard to look on the bright side when rising sea levels
caused by<br>
melting ice threaten millions of people in low lying areas of
Asia,<br>
Europe, the US and the rest of the world.<br>
<br>
m.<br>
<br>
At 10:52 AM -0700 9/10/07, lfalen wrote:<br>
>Ted<br>
>Look on the bright side. A complete opening of the
Northwest<br>
>Passage would cut 2500 miles off of the journey from Europe to
Asia.<br>
>Roger<br>
>-----Original message-----<br>
>From: "Ted Moffett" <a
href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</a><br>
>Date: Fri, 07 Sep 2007 13:03:41 -0700<br>
>To: "MoscowVision 2020" <a
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>
>Subject: [Vision2020] NOAA Confirms Dramatic Sea Ice Loss<br>
><br>
>> *NOAA researchers confirm predictions of dramatic
sea ice loss *<br>
>><br>
>><br>
>><a
href=
"http://www.technewsworld.com/story/A0OHya0BOvEw9B/Study-Confirms-Shrinking-Levels-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice.xhtml"><span
></span
>http://www.technewsworld.com/story/A0OHya0BOvEw9B/Study-Confirms-Shr<span
></span>inking-Levels-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice.xhtml</a><br>
>><br>
>> By DAN JOLING<br>
>> Associated Press Writer<br>
>><br>
>> ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- Computer predictions of
a dramatic decline of sea<br>
>> ice in regions of the Arctic are confirmed by
actual observations, according<br>
>> to scientists for the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.<br>
>><br>
>> The Seattle-based researchers reviewed 20 computer
scenarios of the affects<br>
>> of warming on sea ice used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<br>
>> in its assessment report released this year.<br>
>><br>
>> The researchers compared those models with sea ice
observations from 1979<br>
>> through 1999, rejecting about half because they
did not match what</blockquote>
<blockquote>>> satellites showed, said oceanographer
James Overland.<br>
>><br>
>> But using the most reliable models, the NOAA
scientists reached the same<br>
>> unhappy conclusion: by 2050, summer sea ice in the
Beaufort Sea off Alaska's<br>
>> north coast likely will have diminished by 40
percent compared to the 1980s.<br>
>> The same is likely for the East Siberian-Chukchi
Sea region off northwest<br>
>> Alaska and Russia. In contrast, Canada's Baffin
Bay and Labrador showed<br>
>> little predicted change.<br>
>><br>
>> There was less confidence for winter ice, but the
models also predict a sea<br>
>> ice loss of more than 40 percent for the Bering
Sea off Alaska's west coast,<br>
>> the Sea of Okhotsk east of Siberia and the Barents
Sea north of Norway.<br>
>><br>
>> A 40 percent loss of summer sea ice off Alaska in
the Beaufort Sea could<br>
>> have profound effects on marine mammals dependent
on the sea ice such as<br>
>> polar bears, now under consideration by the U.S.
Fish and Wildlife Service<br>
>> for "threatened" status under the
Endangered Species Act because of changes<br>
>> in the animals' habitat from global warming.<br>
>><br>
>> Overland, an oceanographer at NOAA's Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory<br>
>> in Seattle, and Muyin Wang, a meteorologist at
NOAA's Joint Institute for<br>
>> the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the
University of Washington in<br>
>> Seattle, reviewed 20 computer models provided
through the IPCC. Their<br>
>> research paper will be published Saturday in
Geophysical Research Letters, a<br>
>> publication of the American Geophysical Union.<br>
>><br>
>> In the 1980s, sea ice receded 30 to 50 miles each
summer off the north coast<br>
>> of Alaska, Overland said.<br>
>><br>
>> "Now we're talking about 300 to 500 miles
north of Alaska," he said of<br>
>> projections for 2050.<br>
>><br>
>> That's far past the edge of the highly productive
waters over the relatively<br>
>> shallow continental shelf off Alaska's north
coast, considered important<br>
>> habitat for polar bears and their main prey,
ringed seals, plus other<br>
>> ice-dependent mammals such as walrus.<br>
>><br>
>> Kassie Siegel of the Center for Biological
Diversity, who wrote the petition<br>
>> seeking federal protection for polar bears, said
NOAA's retrospective of sea<br>
>> ice projections does not even take into account
sea ice figures for this<br>
>> summer recorded by the National Snow and Ice Data
Center. As of Tuesday, the<br>
>> center's measurement of sea ice stood at 1.70
million square miles, far<br>
>> below the previous record low for summer ice of
2.05 million square miles<br>
>> recorded Sept. 20, 2005.<br>
>><br>
>> The situation is dire for polar bears, Siegel
said.<br>
> ><br>
>> "They're going to drown, they're going to
starve, they're going to resort to<br>
>> cannibalism, they're going to become extinct,"
she said.<br>
>><br>
>> As ice recedes, many bears will get stuck on land
in summer, where they have<br>
>> virtually no sustainable food source, Siegel said.
Some will try and fail to<br>
>> swim to sea ice, she said. Bears that stay on sea
ice will find water beyond<br>
>> the continental shelf to be less productive.
Females trying to den on land<br>
>> in the fall will face a long swim.<br>
>><br>
>> "It's absolutely horrifying from the polar
bear perspective," she said.<br>
>><br>
>> Less sea ice also will mean a changing ecosystem
for commercial fishermen<br>
>> and marine mammals in the Bering Sea, Overland
said.<br>
>><br>
>> With sea ice present, much of the nutrients
produced in the ocean feed<br>
>> simple plankton that bloom and sink to the ocean
floor, providing rich<br>
>> habitat for crabs, clams and the mammals that feed
off them, including gray<br>
>> whales and walrus.<br>
>><br>
>> "If you don't have the ice around, the
productivity stays up closer to the<br>
>> surface of the ocean," Overland said.
"You actually have a change in the<br>
>> whole ecosystem from one that depends on the
animals that live on the bottom<br>
>> to one that depends on the animals that live in
the water column. So you<br>
>> have winners and losers."<br>
>><br>
>> That could mean short-term gains for salmon and
pollock, he said. But it<br>
>> also could mean that fishermen will have to travel
farther north to fish in<br>
>> Alaska's productive waters, and warm-water
predators might move north.</blockquote>
<blockquote>>><br>
>> Overland said sea ice computer models have
performed well accounting for how<br>
>> ice melts from global warming and for the albedo
effect - accelerated<br>
>> warming due to the presence of dark water that
absorbs most of the sun's<br>
>> radiation, warming the ocean and making it harder
for water to freeze, in<br>
>> contrast to ice, which reflects most of the sun's
radiation.<br>
>><br>
>> The models do not do as well accounting for wind
and cloud patterns and<br>
>> other factors that may have contributed to recent
warming, Overland said.<br>
>><br>
>> But the contribution to warming by greenhouse gas
emissions likely are set,<br>
>> he said. Emissions stay in the atmosphere for 40
to 50 years before being<br>
>> absorbed by the ocean. The amount put out in the
last 20 years and the<br>
>> carbon dioxide put out in the next 20 will be
around to influence the<br>
>> half-century mark, Overland said.<br>
>><br>
>> "I'm afraid to say, a lot of the images we
are going to see in the next 30<br>
>> to 40 years are pretty much already established,"
he said.<br>
>><br>
>> ------<br>
>><br>
>> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett<br>
>><br>
>></blockquote>
</blockquote>
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