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<DIV><FONT size=2>I know, and Yuma would be much better looking with a
beachfront. I grew up in and around Nogales, which is about 140 miles inland
from the Sea of Cortez. Yuma is about 40 miles inland, if I recall
correctly.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>On a side note, it was a strange juxtapostion to see pelicans
hanging around stock tanks in the Sonoran Desert after they'd been blown inland
from storms.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Remember to stop by "Kaktus Kai's Surf and Snak Shoppe" on the
Yuma waterfront. Home of the best fish tacos this side of
Atlantis.</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=msolomon@moscow.com href="mailto:msolomon@moscow.com">Mark
Solomon</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=starbliss@gmail.com
href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">Ted Moffett</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A title=lfalen@turbonet.com
href="mailto:lfalen@turbonet.com">lfalen</A> ; <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">MoscowVision 2020</A> ; <A
title=editor@lataheagle.com href="mailto:editor@lataheagle.com">Kai Eiselein,
editor</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 10, 2007 2:54
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] NOAA Confirms
Dramatic Sea Ice Loss</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Watch out, Kai: Yuma is at elevation 138' above sea level.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>m.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>At 2:48 PM -0700 9/10/07, Ted Moffett wrote:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite">All-</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite">The NOAA study I referenced focused on
Arctic sea ice loss, which, while a great environmental and ecosystem
disaster, associated with problems caused by global warming that
are planetary wide, will not cause sea levels to rise. Most of the
Arctic ice is floating on the ocean, so it is displacing its weight in
liquid water. The main sources of ice melt that will cause sea levels
to rise dramatically are Greenland and Antarctica, where the ice is on land
above water. The potential is for sea level rise of over 150
feet. There are verified measurements that both Greenland and
Antarctic ice is threatening ocean level rise. A skeptic might argue
that snow fall will replace the ice as fast as it melts, even assuming
global warming is occurring. The increased atmospheric moisture caused
by global warming will cause an increase in snow fall over Greenland or
Antarctica. But with profound global warming of, let's say, 5 C.
average global temperatures, it is very doubtful the melting could be offset
by increasing snow fall.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite">The Arctic ice is melting extremely fast due
to the effects of albedo (a term for the reflectivity of a body of
surface). Ice or snow reflects a large amount of solar
radiation. When it melts and exposes the ocean, as in Arctic ice, the
darker water absorbs more energy and stores it, increasing the rate of the
melting of ice. A snow ball effect, no pun intended. When or if
land areas on Greenland or Antarctica become more exposed as ice melts, this
will also increase albedo, accelerating the melting, though perhaps not
as fast as in the case of the Arctic ice over water.
Antarctica has already has massive ice sheets break apart on the edges of
this continent, sheets that have been stable for thousands of years,
increasing the rate of movement of glaciers that dump into the ocean,
exposing warmer water to the edges of Antarctica, increasing melt rate in
this area.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite">Some scientists think snow fall replacement
in the interior of Antarctica is increasing, helping to offset melting of
glaciers on the edges.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite=""
type="cite">Ted Moffett <BR><BR> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite">On 9/10/07,<B> Mark Solomon</B> <<A
href="mailto:msolomon@moscow.com">msolomon@moscow.com</A>> wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Hard to look on the bright side when rising sea levels caused
by<BR>melting ice threaten millions of people in low lying areas of
Asia,<BR>Europe, the US and the rest of the world.<BR><BR>m.<BR><BR>At
10:52 AM -0700 9/10/07, lfalen wrote:<BR>>Ted<BR>>Look on the bright
side. A complete opening of the Northwest<BR>>Passage would
cut 2500 miles off of the journey from Europe to
Asia.<BR>>Roger<BR>>-----Original message-----<BR>>From: "Ted
Moffett" <A
href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</A><BR>>Date:
Fri, 07 Sep 2007 13:03:41 -0700<BR>>To: "MoscowVision 2020" <A
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>>Subject:
[Vision2020] NOAA Confirms Dramatic Sea Ice
Loss<BR>><BR>>> *NOAA researchers confirm predictions
of dramatic sea ice loss *<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>><A
href="http://www.technewsworld.com/story/A0OHya0BOvEw9B/Study-Confirms-Shrinking-Levels-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice.xhtml"><SPAN></SPAN>http://www.technewsworld.com/story/A0OHya0BOvEw9B/Study-Confirms-Shr<SPAN></SPAN>inking-Levels-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice.xhtml</A><BR>>><BR>>> By
DAN JOLING<BR>>> Associated Press
Writer<BR>>><BR>>> ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) --
Computer predictions of a dramatic decline of
sea<BR>>> ice in regions of the Arctic are confirmed by
actual observations, according<BR>>> to scientists for
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.<BR>>><BR>>> The Seattle-based
researchers reviewed 20 computer scenarios of the
affects<BR>>> of warming on sea ice used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<BR>>> in its
assessment report released this
year.<BR>>><BR>>> The researchers compared those
models with sea ice observations from 1979<BR>>> through
1999, rejecting about half because they did not match what</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>>> satellites showed, said oceanographer
James Overland.<BR>>><BR>>> But using the most
reliable models, the NOAA scientists reached the
same<BR>>> unhappy conclusion: by 2050, summer sea ice in
the Beaufort Sea off Alaska's<BR>>> north coast likely
will have diminished by 40 percent compared to the
1980s.<BR>>> The same is likely for the East
Siberian-Chukchi Sea region off northwest<BR>>> Alaska
and Russia. In contrast, Canada's Baffin Bay and Labrador
showed<BR>>> little predicted
change.<BR>>><BR>>> There was less confidence for
winter ice, but the models also predict a sea<BR>>> ice
loss of more than 40 percent for the Bering Sea off Alaska's west
coast,<BR>>> the Sea of Okhotsk east of Siberia and the
Barents Sea north of Norway.<BR>>><BR>>> A 40
percent loss of summer sea ice off Alaska in the Beaufort Sea
could<BR>>> have profound effects on marine mammals
dependent on the sea ice such as<BR>>> polar bears, now
under consideration by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service<BR>>> for "threatened" status under the
Endangered Species Act because of changes<BR>>> in the
animals' habitat from global
warming.<BR>>><BR>>> Overland, an oceanographer at
NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory<BR>>> in
Seattle, and Muyin Wang, a meteorologist at NOAA's Joint Institute
for<BR>>> the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the
University of Washington in<BR>>> Seattle, reviewed 20
computer models provided through the IPCC.
Their<BR>>> research paper will be published Saturday in
Geophysical Research Letters, a<BR>>> publication of the
American Geophysical Union.<BR>>><BR>>> In the
1980s, sea ice receded 30 to 50 miles each summer off the north
coast<BR>>> of Alaska, Overland
said.<BR>>><BR>>> "Now we're talking about 300 to
500 miles north of Alaska," he said of<BR>>> projections
for 2050.<BR>>><BR>>> That's far past the edge of
the highly productive waters over the
relatively<BR>>> shallow continental shelf off Alaska's
north coast, considered important<BR>>> habitat for polar
bears and their main prey, ringed seals, plus
other<BR>>> ice-dependent mammals such as
walrus.<BR>>><BR>>> Kassie Siegel of the Center for
Biological Diversity, who wrote the
petition<BR>>> seeking federal protection for polar
bears, said NOAA's retrospective of sea<BR>>> ice
projections does not even take into account sea ice figures for
this<BR>>> summer recorded by the National Snow and Ice
Data Center. As of Tuesday, the<BR>>> center's
measurement of sea ice stood at 1.70 million square miles,
far<BR>>> below the previous record low for summer ice of
2.05 million square miles<BR>>> recorded Sept. 20,
2005.<BR>>><BR>>> The situation is dire for polar
bears, Siegel
said.<BR>> ><BR>>> "They're going to
drown, they're going to starve, they're going to resort
to<BR>>> cannibalism, they're going to become extinct,"
she said.<BR>>><BR>>> As ice recedes, many bears
will get stuck on land in summer, where they
have<BR>>> virtually no sustainable food source, Siegel
said. Some will try and fail to<BR>>> swim to sea ice,
she said. Bears that stay on sea ice will find water
beyond<BR>>> the continental shelf to be less productive.
Females trying to den on land<BR>>> in the fall will face
a long swim.<BR>>><BR>>> "It's absolutely
horrifying from the polar bear perspective," she
said.<BR>>><BR>>> Less sea ice also will mean a
changing ecosystem for commercial fishermen<BR>>> and
marine mammals in the Bering Sea, Overland
said.<BR>>><BR>>> With sea ice present, much of the
nutrients produced in the ocean feed<BR>>> simple
plankton that bloom and sink to the ocean floor, providing
rich<BR>>> habitat for crabs, clams and the mammals that
feed off them, including gray<BR>>> whales and
walrus.<BR>>><BR>>> "If you don't have the ice
around, the productivity stays up closer to
the<BR>>> surface of the ocean," Overland said. "You
actually have a change in the<BR>>> whole ecosystem from
one that depends on the animals that live on the
bottom<BR>>> to one that depends on the animals that live
in the water column. So you<BR>>> have winners and
losers."<BR>>><BR>>> That could mean short-term
gains for salmon and pollock, he said. But it<BR>>> also
could mean that fishermen will have to travel farther north to fish
in<BR>>> Alaska's productive waters, and warm-water
predators might move north.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>>><BR>>> Overland said sea ice computer
models have performed well accounting for how<BR>>> ice
melts from global warming and for the albedo effect -
accelerated<BR>>> warming due to the presence of dark
water that absorbs most of the sun's<BR>>> radiation,
warming the ocean and making it harder for water to freeze,
in<BR>>> contrast to ice, which reflects most of the
sun's radiation.<BR>>><BR>>> The models do not do
as well accounting for wind and cloud patterns
and<BR>>> other factors that may have contributed to
recent warming, Overland said.<BR>>><BR>>> But the
contribution to warming by greenhouse gas emissions likely are
set,<BR>>> he said. Emissions stay in the atmosphere for
40 to 50 years before being<BR>>> absorbed by the ocean.
The amount put out in the last 20 years and
the<BR>>> carbon dioxide put out in the next 20 will be
around to influence the<BR>>> half-century mark, Overland
said.<BR>>><BR>>> "I'm afraid to say, a lot of the
images we are going to see in the next 30<BR>>> to 40
years are pretty much already established," he
said.<BR>>><BR>>> ------<BR>>><BR>>> Vision2020
Post: Ted Moffett<BR>>><BR>>></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
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