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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hello All,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This site provides some good graphics/info etc on
what's happening to the north (arctic ice melt) as we speak. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Warren Hayman</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A
href="http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html">http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=msolomon@moscow.com href="mailto:msolomon@moscow.com">Mark
Solomon</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=editor@lataheagle.com
href="mailto:editor@lataheagle.com">Kai Eiselein, editor</A> ; <A
title=starbliss@gmail.com href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">Ted Moffett</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">MoscowVision 2020</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 10, 2007 3:24
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] NOAA Confirms
Dramatic Sea Ice Loss</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Speaking of birds blown by storms: after Katrina disrupted the
Mississippi Flyway, literally hundreds of prairie falcons which are extremely
rare in these parts, were hanging around Moscow Mountain for a week or so
trying (I'm guessing) to figure out just where they were.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>"Toto, I don't think we're in Kansas anymore."</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>m.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>At 3:16 PM -0700 9/10/07, Kai Eiselein, editor wrote:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"><FONT size=-1>I know, and Yuma would be
much better looking with a beachfront. I grew up in and around Nogales,
which is about 140 miles inland from the Sea of Cortez. Yuma is about 40
miles inland, if I recall correctly.</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"><FONT size=-1>On a side note, it was a
strange juxtapostion to see pelicans hanging around stock tanks in the
Sonoran Desert after they'd been blown inland from storms.</FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"><FONT size=-1>Remember to stop by "Kaktus
Kai's Surf and Snak Shoppe" on the Yuma waterfront. Home of the
best fish tacos this side of Atlantis.</FONT><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>----- Original Message -----</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>From:</B> <A href="mailto:msolomon@moscow.com">Mark
Solomon</A></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">Ted
Moffett</A></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>Cc:</B> <A href="mailto:lfalen@turbonet.com">lfalen</A> ;
<A href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">MoscowVision 2020</A> ; <A
href="mailto:editor@lataheagle.com">Kai Eiselein, editor</A></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 10, 2007 2:54 PM</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] NOAA Confirms Dramatic Sea
Ice Loss</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Watch out, Kai: Yuma is at elevation 138' above sea
level.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>m.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>At 2:48 PM -0700 9/10/07, Ted Moffett wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"><BR> </BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>All-<BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>The NOAA study I referenced focused on Arctic sea ice loss,
which, while a great environmental and ecosystem disaster, associated
with problems caused by global warming that are planetary
wide, will not cause sea levels to rise. Most of the Arctic ice is
floating on the ocean, so it is displacing its weight in liquid
water. The main sources of ice melt that will cause sea levels to
rise dramatically are Greenland and Antarctica, where the ice is on land
above water. The potential is for sea level rise of over 150
feet. There are verified measurements that both Greenland and
Antarctic ice is threatening ocean level rise. A skeptic might
argue that snow fall will replace the ice as fast as it melts, even
assuming global warming is occurring. The increased atmospheric
moisture caused by global warming will cause an increase in snow fall
over Greenland or Antarctica. But with profound global warming of,
let's say, 5 C. average global temperatures, it is very doubtful the
melting could be offset by increasing snow fall.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>The Arctic ice is melting extremely fast due to the effects
of albedo (a term for the reflectivity of a body of surface). Ice
or snow reflects a large amount of solar radiation. When it melts
and exposes the ocean, as in Arctic ice, the darker water absorbs more
energy and stores it, increasing the rate of the melting of ice. A
snow ball effect, no pun intended. When or if land areas on
Greenland or Antarctica become more exposed as ice melts, this will also
increase albedo, accelerating the melting, though perhaps not
as fast as in the case of the Arctic ice over
water. Antarctica has already has massive ice sheets break apart
on the edges of this continent, sheets that have been stable for
thousands of years, increasing the rate of movement of glaciers that
dump into the ocean, exposing warmer water to the edges of Antarctica,
increasing melt rate in this area.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Some scientists think snow fall replacement in the interior
of Antarctica is increasing, helping to offset melting of glaciers on
the edges.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE><BR> </BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Ted Moffett <BR><BR> <BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>On 9/10/07,<B> Mark Solomon</B> <<A
href="mailto:msolomon@moscow.com">msolomon@moscow.com</A>> wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE>Hard to look on the bright side when rising sea levels
caused by<BR>melting ice threaten millions of people in low lying
areas of Asia,<BR>Europe, the US and the rest of the
world.<BR><BR>m.<BR><BR>At 10:52 AM -0700 9/10/07, lfalen
wrote:<BR>>Ted<BR>>Look on the bright side. A
complete opening of the Northwest</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>>Passage would cut 2500 miles off of the journey from
Europe to Asia.<BR>>Roger<BR>>-----Original
message-----<BR>>From: "Ted Moffett" <A
href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">starbliss@gmail.com</A><BR>>Date:
Fri, 07 Sep 2007 13:03:41 -0700<BR>>To: "MoscowVision 2020" <A
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>>Subject:
[Vision2020] NOAA Confirms Dramatic Sea Ice
Loss<BR>><BR>>> *NOAA researchers confirm
predictions of dramatic sea ice loss
*<BR>>><BR>>><BR>>><A
href="http://www.technewsworld.com/story/A0OHya0BOvEw9B/Study-Confirms-Shrinking-Levels-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice.xhtml"><SPAN></SPAN>http://www.technewsworld.com/story/A0OHya0BOvEw9B/Study-Confirms-Shr<SPAN></SPAN>inking-Levels-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice.xhtml</A><BR>>><BR>>> By
DAN JOLING<BR>>> Associated Press
Writer<BR>>><BR>>> ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) --
Computer predictions of a dramatic decline of
sea<BR>>> ice in regions of the Arctic are confirmed
by actual observations, according<BR>>> to scientists
for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.<BR>>><BR>>> The Seattle-based
researchers reviewed 20 computer scenarios of the
affects<BR>>> of warming on sea ice used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<BR>>> in
its assessment report released this
year.<BR>>><BR>>> The researchers compared
those models with sea ice observations from
1979<BR>>> through 1999, rejecting about half because
they did not match what<BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>>> satellites showed, said oceanographer
James Overland.<BR>>><BR>>> But using the most
reliable models, the NOAA scientists reached the
same<BR>>> unhappy conclusion: by 2050, summer sea
ice in the Beaufort Sea off Alaska's<BR>>> north
coast likely will have diminished by 40 percent compared to the
1980s.<BR>>> The same is likely for the East
Siberian-Chukchi Sea region off
northwest<BR>>> Alaska and Russia. In contrast,
Canada's Baffin Bay and Labrador showed<BR>>> little
predicted change.<BR>>><BR>>> There was less
confidence for winter ice, but the models also predict a
sea<BR>>> ice loss of more than 40 percent for the
Bering Sea off Alaska's west coast,<BR>>> the Sea of
Okhotsk east of Siberia and the Barents Sea north of
Norway.<BR>>><BR>>> A 40 percent loss of summer
sea ice off Alaska in the Beaufort Sea
could<BR>>> have profound effects on marine mammals
dependent on the sea ice such as<BR>>> polar bears,
now under consideration by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service<BR>>> for "threatened" status under the
Endangered Species Act because of changes<BR>>> in
the animals' habitat from global
warming.<BR>>><BR>>> Overland, an oceanographer
at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental
Laboratory<BR>>> in Seattle, and Muyin Wang, a
meteorologist at NOAA's Joint Institute for<BR>>> the
Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington
in<BR>>> Seattle, reviewed 20 computer models
provided through the IPCC. Their<BR>>> research paper
will be published Saturday in Geophysical Research Letters,
a<BR>>> publication of the American Geophysical
Union.<BR>>><BR>>> In the 1980s, sea ice
receded 30 to 50 miles each summer off the north
coast<BR>>> of Alaska, Overland
said.<BR>>><BR>>> "Now we're talking about 300
to 500 miles north of Alaska," he said
of<BR>>> projections for
2050.<BR>>><BR>>> That's far past the edge of
the highly productive waters over the
relatively<BR>>> shallow continental shelf off
Alaska's north coast, considered
important<BR>>> habitat for polar bears and their
main prey, ringed seals, plus
other<BR>>> ice-dependent mammals such as
walrus.<BR>>><BR>>> Kassie Siegel of the Center
for Biological Diversity, who wrote the
petition<BR>>> seeking federal protection for polar
bears, said NOAA's retrospective of sea<BR>>> ice
projections does not even take into account sea ice figures for
this<BR>>> summer recorded by the National Snow and
Ice Data Center. As of Tuesday, the<BR>>> center's
measurement of sea ice stood at 1.70 million square miles,
far<BR>>> below the previous record low for summer
ice of 2.05 million square miles<BR>>> recorded Sept.
20, 2005.<BR>>><BR>>> The situation is dire for
polar bears, Siegel
said.<BR>> ><BR>>> "They're going to
drown, they're going to starve, they're going to resort
to<BR>>> cannibalism, they're going to become
extinct," she said.<BR>>><BR>>> As ice recedes,
many bears will get stuck on land in summer, where they
have</BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>>> virtually no sustainable food source,
Siegel said. Some will try and fail to<BR>>> swim to
sea ice, she said. Bears that stay on sea ice will find water
beyond<BR>>> the continental shelf to be less
productive. Females trying to den on land<BR>>> in
the fall will face a long
swim.<BR>>><BR>>> "It's absolutely horrifying
from the polar bear perspective," she
said.<BR>>><BR>>> Less sea ice also will mean a
changing ecosystem for commercial fishermen<BR>>> and
marine mammals in the Bering Sea, Overland
said.<BR>>><BR>>> With sea ice present, much of
the nutrients produced in the ocean feed<BR>>> simple
plankton that bloom and sink to the ocean floor, providing
rich<BR>>> habitat for crabs, clams and the mammals
that feed off them, including gray<BR>>> whales and
walrus.<BR>>><BR>>> "If you don't have the ice
around, the productivity stays up closer to
the<BR>>> surface of the ocean," Overland said. "You
actually have a change in the<BR>>> whole ecosystem
from one that depends on the animals that live on the
bottom<BR>>> to one that depends on the animals that
live in the water column. So you<BR>>> have winners
and losers."<BR>>><BR>>> That could mean
short-term gains for salmon and pollock, he said. But
it<BR>>> also could mean that fishermen will have to
travel farther north to fish in<BR>>> Alaska's
productive waters, and warm-water predators might move
north.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE>>><BR>>> Overland said sea ice
computer models have performed well accounting for
how<BR>>> ice melts from global warming and for the
albedo effect - accelerated<BR>>> warming due to the
presence of dark water that absorbs most of the
sun's<BR>>> radiation, warming the ocean and making
it harder for water to freeze, in<BR>>> contrast to
ice, which reflects most of the sun's
radiation.<BR>>><BR>>> The models do not do as
well accounting for wind and cloud patterns
and<BR>>> other factors that may have contributed to
recent warming, Overland said.<BR>>><BR>>> But
the contribution to warming by greenhouse gas emissions likely are
set,<BR>>> he said. Emissions stay in the atmosphere
for 40 to 50 years before being<BR>>> absorbed by the
ocean. The amount put out in the last 20 years and
the<BR>>> carbon dioxide put out in the next 20 will
be around to influence the<BR>>> half-century mark,
Overland said.<BR>>><BR>>> "I'm afraid to say,
a lot of the images we are going to see in the next
30<BR>>> to 40 years are pretty much already
established," he
said.<BR>>><BR>>> ------<BR>>><BR>>> Vision2020
Post: Ted
Moffett<BR>>><BR>>></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
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