<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 6.00.6000.16414" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><A href="http://www.nytimes.com/"><IMG alt="The New York Times" hspace=0
src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/misc/logoprinter.gif" align=left
border=0></A> <!-- ADXINFO classification="button" campaign="foxsearch2007-emailtools01d-nyt5-511276"-->
<TABLE style="MARGIN-TOP: 3px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 3px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0
width="80%" border=0>
<TBODY>
<TR vAlign=bottom>
<TD>
<DIV style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 2px">
<DIV align=right><IMG height=1 alt=""
src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/ads/spacer.gif" width=1 border=0><A
href="http://www.nytimes.com/adx/bin/adx_click.html?type=goto&page=www.nytimes.com/printer-friendly&pos=Position1&camp=foxsearch2007-emailtools01d-nyt5-511276&ad=waitress_88x31.gif&goto=http://www.foxsearchlight.com/waitress/"
target=_blank><IMG height=24 alt="Printer Friendly Format Sponsored By"
src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/ads/fox/printerfriendly.gif" width=106
border=0><IMG height=31 alt=""
src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/ads/fox/sponsorship/waitress_88x31.gif"
width=88 border=0></A><BR></DIV></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR clear=all>
<HR align=left SIZE=1>
<DIV class=timestamp>April 9, 2007</DIV>
<DIV class=kicker></DIV>
<H1><NYT_HEADLINE type=" " version="1.0">Patterns of War Shift in Iraq Amid
Buildup of U.S. Force </NYT_HEADLINE></H1><NYT_BYLINE type=" "
version="1.0"></NYT_BYLINE>
<DIV class=byline>By ALISSA J. RUBIN and <A title="More Articles by Edward Wong"
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/w/edward_wong/index.html?inline=nyt-per">EDWARD
WONG</A></DIV><NYT_TEXT></NYT_TEXT>
<DIV id=articleBody>
<P>BAGHDAD, April 8 — Nearly two months into the new security push in Baghdad,
there has been some success in reducing the number of death squad victims found
crumpled in the streets each day.</P>
<P>And while the overall death rates for all of <A
title="More news and information about Iraq."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iraq/index.html?inline=nyt-geo">Iraq</A>
have not dropped significantly, largely because of devastating suicide bombings,
a few parts of the capital have become calmer as some death squads have decided
to lie low. </P>
<P>But there is little sign that the Baghdad push is accomplishing its main
purpose: to create an island of stability in which Sunni Arabs, Shiite Arabs and
Kurds can try to figure out how to run the country together. There has been no
visible move toward compromise on the main dividing issues, like regional
autonomy and more power sharing between Shiites and Sunnis. </P>
<P>For American troops, Baghdad has become a deadlier battleground as they have
poured into the capital to confront Sunni and Shiite militias on their home
streets. The rate of American deaths in the city over the first seven weeks of
the security plan has nearly doubled from the previous period, though it has
stayed roughly the same over all, decreasing in other parts of the country as
troops have focused on the capital. </P>
<P>American commanders say it will be months before they can draw conclusions
about the campaign to secure Baghdad, and just more than half of the so-called
surge of nearly 30,000 additional troops into the country have arrived. But at
the same time, political pressure in the United States for quick results and a
firm troop pullout date has become more intense than ever.</P>
<P>This snapshot of the early weeks of the operation, which officially began on
Feb. 14, is drawn from American and Iraqi casualty data and interviews with
military commanders and government officials.</P>
<P>Already in that time, the military and political reality has shifted from
what American planners faced when they prepared the Baghdad operation,
continuing a pattern of rapid change that has become painfully familiar since
the 2003 invasion.</P>
<P>In the northern and western provinces where they hold sway, and even in parts
of Baghdad, Sunni Arab insurgents have sharpened their tactics, using more
suicide car and vest bombs and carrying out successive chlorine gas attacks.
</P>
<P>Even as officials have sought to dampen the insurgency by trying to deal with
Sunni Arab factions, those groups have become increasingly fractured. There are
now at least a dozen major Sunni insurgent groups — many fighting other Sunnis
as well as the Americans and the Shiite-led government. A deal made with any one
or two would be unlikely to be acceptable to the others. </P>
<P>While Shiite militias appear to have quieted in Baghdad so far, elements of
them have been fighting pitched battles outside the city, sometimes against one
another, sometimes against Sunni Arabs. They are pushing Sunnis out of their
homes and attacking their mosques.</P>
<P>And in a new tactic, both Shiite and Sunni militants have been burning down
homes and shops in the provinces in recent months.</P>
<P>One American private in the First Battalion, Fifth Cavalry, who was working
the overnight shift at a new garrison in western Baghdad, described the
Americans’ fight this way: “The insurgents, they see what we’re doing and we see
what they’re doing. Then we get ahead, then they figure out what we’ve done and
they get ahead.</P>
<P>“It’s like a game of cat and mouse. It’s just a really, really smart
mouse.”</P>
<P><SPAN class=bold>A Shift in Deaths</SPAN></P>
<P>The incoming five brigades as part of the new security plan will bring the
total number of American troops in Iraq to about 173,000 when it is complete,
more than at any time since the war began. </P>
<P>Many of the new troops are joining long-term garrisons along with Iraqi
forces in particularly violent neighborhoods of Baghdad, keeping up frequent
patrols and trying to strengthen relations with Iraqis by meeting with local
leaders and residents.</P>
<P>That has put the Americans in the middle of sectarian battlegrounds, and
their death rate in the city has nearly doubled. The number of Americans killed
in combat or other violence rose to 53 in Baghdad in the first seven weeks of
the push, from Feb. 14 to April 2. That is up from 29 in the seven weeks before
then.</P>
<P>Diyala Province, just northeast of Baghdad, has also been a trouble spot,
bitterly contested by Sunni and Shiite militants. The United States military
added a battalion in the province, and the fighting has been fierce, with 15
Americans killed there in the seven weeks starting on Feb. 14. The total from
the seven weeks before then was 10.</P>
<P>At the same time, though, the rate of American deaths throughout the country
has stayed about the same, with 116 killed in hostile incidents, up from 113 in
the prior seven weeks. </P>
<P>As the focus has intensified on Baghdad, deaths have fallen in some outlying
areas — even in Anbar Province, the heart of the Sunni rebellion where American
marines have long faced intense violence. In the seven weeks after the start of
the Baghdad operation, 31 Americans were killed in Anbar, down from 46 in the
seven weeks beforehand. </P>
<P>While it is difficult to point to any one reason, in recent months Anbar has
been at the center of a fissure in the insurgency between tribes who support the
terrorist group <A title="More articles about Al Qaeda."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/al_qaeda/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Al
Qaeda</A> in Mesopotamia and tribes who reject it because it is seen as inviting
foreign fighters.</P>
<P>Roadside bombs were by far the most common means of killing Americans. Deaths
in Baghdad and Diyala from such explosions more than doubled. In Baghdad, 83
percent of troop deaths since the plan began have been caused by roadside bombs.
In Diyala, all but one of the 15 soldiers who died in the seven-week period were
killed by roadside bombs. Just four were killed by the bombs in the preceding
seven weeks there. </P>
<P><SPAN class=bold>Violence Against Civilians</SPAN></P>
<P>The Iraqi government and the American military refuse to release overall
civilian casualty numbers; both give numbers only for a few categories of
deaths, making it difficult to get an overall picture. One of the last official
reports on civilian casualties came in January from the <A
title="More articles about the United Nations."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/united_nations/index.html?inline=nyt-org">United
Nations</A>, which, citing morgue and hospital statistics, said at least 34,452
Iraqis were killed last year, or an average of nearly 100 per day.</P>
<P>Over the past seven weeks, American commanders say that the security push has
had some success so far in cutting down the number of sectarian execution-style
killings — tracked by counting the number of bodies found with gunshot or knife
wounds. Military officials say that such killings have dropped 26 percent
nationwide and even more in Baghdad.</P>
<P>But other kinds of attacks, like car bombings, have kept the overall civilian
death rate high, and in recent days there are anecdotal reports that sectarian
executions may be on the rise again. </P>
<P>“We’ve not seen the overall same significant amount of decline in the overall
number of casualties” as in execution killings, Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell
IV, spokesman for the American military command, said in a news conference last
week. </P>
<P>The American military believes that much of the drop in executions has come
because of decreased activity by Shiite militias and death squads, especially
the powerful Mahdi Army militia that claims allegiance to the cleric <A
title="More articles about Moktada al-Sadr."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/moktada_al_sadr/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Moktada
al-Sadr</A>.</P>
<P>Many militia leaders have been detained in raids by the American military,
according to the Iraqi government, and despite some major car bomb attacks on
Shiite areas, the militias appear to have decided to refrain from carrying out
revenge killings.</P>
<P>“The cycle of violence is not as predictable,” a senior American military
official said. “Iraqi people are showing restraint, and the ability of death
squads to retaliate is being circumscribed.”</P>
<P>However, it appears that not all Shiite cells, Mahdi Army or otherwise, are
so patient. American soldiers in sections of western Baghdad, as well as Sunni
Arabs living there and in Sunni enclaves south of Baghdad in Babil Province, are
reporting that sectarian killings and threats against Sunni Arab families have
begun to rise again, after a brief hiatus at the start of the security plan.
</P>
<P>“There’s been spray paint on walls: ‘Get out or you’ll pay with your blood,’
” said Capt. Benjamin Morales, 28, commander of a company of the 82nd Airborne
that oversees a Shiite-dominated section of western Baghdad. There were eight
Sunni households in the area at the start of March; three had left by its
end.</P>
<P>The Iraqi government has been encouraging displaced families to return to
their abandoned homes and offering $200 as an incentive. The government said
that 2,000 families had returned by mid-March, but there is no way to verify the
numbers. </P>
<P>In Fadhil, a Sunni enclave in eastern Baghdad surrounded by Shiite
neighborhoods, residents say Shiite militias have been attacking with mortar
shells and sniper fire. They accuse the Shiite-dominated Iraqi security forces
of taking part, which Iraqi military officials deny.</P>
<P>“The situation was quiet when the militias left the country, but when they
came back, the tension returned,” said Wamid Salah Hameed, a community leader in
Fadhil. “The military is attacking us and firing at the neighborhood randomly.
There is a sectarian feeling among the soldiers in the army.”</P>
<P>Meanwhile, Shiite militias have burned shops in a Sunni enclave of Babil
Province, and Sunni militias burned Sunni and Shiite homes in Diyala last month.
</P>
<P>Sunni militias have been active in Baghdad, too. The number of bodies of
their presumed victims that turn up, tortured and shot, appears to have
declined, but not halted, in recent weeks. In the past three weeks in some
mostly Sunni neighborhoods of western Baghdad, Shiites bringing supplies to
displaced families — even displaced Sunni families — have been kidnapped and
killed, their bodies left in corner lots. </P>
<P>“We used to see sometimes eight bodies a day,” said Sgt. Michael Brosch, of
the First Battalion, Fifth Cavalry. “Sometimes they were all beheaded. Then
right at the beginning of the security plan, we didn’t see any. Now we’re seeing
them again.”</P>
<P>At the same time, deaths and injuries nationwide from vehicle bombs, which
are typically associated with Sunni insurgents, particularly Al Qaeda in
Mesopotamia, have continued at a rapid pace.</P>
<P>January and February were particularly bad months for car bombing deaths;
nearly 1,100 were killed in February alone. That number dropped to 783 in March,
still high compared with months earlier in the war, according to an American
military official. But the overall number of bombings actually increased: there
were 108 car bombs that either detonated or were disarmed in March, a record for
the war. </P>
<P>Outside of Baghdad, several huge bombings have been responsible for many of
the deaths. The worst, last month in Tal Afar, killed 152.</P>
<P>In Anbar, at least six bombings involved a terrifying new weapon: truck bombs
that spread chlorine gas, burning victims’ lungs and skin. The deadliest of
those attacks, in Ramadi on Friday, killed at least 30 people. </P>
<P><SPAN class=bold>A Fractured Government</SPAN></P>
<P>Most American and Iraqi officials say that the key to Iraq’s security is a
political agreement that gives Sunni Arabs more power in the government. But the
near-term prognosis for that looks grim, as the calm necessary to negotiate such
a deal remains elusive. </P>
<P>Some Shiite leaders have publicly said they are prepared to reconcile with
the minority Sunnis, who generally prospered under <A
title="More articles about Saddam Hussein."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/h/saddam_hussein/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Saddam
Hussein</A>’s Baathist government. But the Shiites are still loath to give
Sunnis any additional power and risk returning to the oppressed status they held
for centuries.</P>
<P>Meanwhile, the Kurds in the north are pushing policies that will maximize the
powers of their autonomous region, including trying to get control of the
ethnically mixed oil-rich city of Kirkuk.</P>
<P>The Sunni Arabs seek several changes in the government’s structure. They want
Prime Minister <A title="More articles about Nuri Kamal al-Maliki."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/nuri_kamal_al-maliki/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Nuri
Kamal al-Maliki</A>, a conservative Shiite, to make good on his promise to
replace ineffective or corrupt ministers. Mr. Maliki promised the shake-up
months ago, but the proposal now appears moribund. </P>
<P>The Sunni Arabs also want the Constitution amended to bring power back to
Baghdad and reduce the chance that areas in the oil-rich, Shiite-dominated south
will follow the model of Kurdistan and create an autonomous state. </P>
<P>In addition, the Sunni Arabs continue to push for a rollback of purges of
Sunni Arabs from government that began after the Shiites came to power in
national elections. </P>
<P>But to stop the violence, the ruling Shiites must deal with Sunnis outside
the government, in the factionalized insurgency, who can offer few guarantees on
any promises to stop bombings against Shiites. </P>
<P>“We talk to people who say they represent the insurgents and they all say the
same thing: ‘We oppose the occupation, but we don’t believe in killing
civilians, in killing women and children,’ ” a senior adviser to Mr. Maliki
said. “But our people are dying in bombs every day. Who is killing them?”
</P><NYT_AUTHOR_ID></NYT_AUTHOR_ID>
<DIV id=authorId>
<P>Reporting was contributed by Kirk Semple, Hosham Hussein and Khalid al-Ansary
in Baghdad, and Andrew W. Lehren and Archie Tse in New
York.</P></DIV></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>