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<DIV class=timestamp>March 3, 2007</DIV>
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<H1><NYT_HEADLINE type=" " version="1.0">U.S. Predicting Steady Increase for
Emissions </NYT_HEADLINE></H1><NYT_BYLINE type=" " version="1.0"></NYT_BYLINE>
<DIV class=byline>By <A title="More Articles by Andrew C. Revkin"
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/andrew_c_revkin/index.html?inline=nyt-per">ANDREW
C. REVKIN</A></DIV><NYT_TEXT></NYT_TEXT>
<DIV id=articleBody>
<P>The Bush administration estimates that emissions by the United States of
gases that contribute to <A
title="Recent and archival news about global warming."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier">global
warming</A> will grow nearly as fast through the next decade as they did the
previous decade, according to a long-delayed report being completed for the <A
title="More articles about the United Nations."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/united_nations/index.html?inline=nyt-org">United
Nations</A>. </P>
<P>The document, the United States Climate Action Report, emphasizes that the
projections show progress toward a goal Mr. Bush laid out in a 2002 speech: that
emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases grow at a slower rate
than the economy. Since that speech, he has repeated his commitment to lessening
“greenhouse gas intensity” without imposing formal limits on the gases. </P>
<P>Kristen A. Hellmer, a spokeswoman for the White House on environmental
matters, said on Friday, “The Climate Action Report will show that the
president’s portfolio of actions addressing climate change and his unparalleled
financial commitments are working.” </P>
<P>But when shown the report, an assortment of experts on climate trends and
policy described the projected emissions as unacceptable given the rising
evidence of risks from unabated global warming. </P>
<P>“As governor of Texas and as a candidate, the president supported mandatory
limits on carbon dioxide emissions,” said David W. Conover, who directed the
administration’s <A href="http://www.climatetechnology.gov/" target=_0>Climate
Change Technology Program</A> until February 2006 and is now counsel to the
National Commission on Energy Policy, a nonpartisan research group that supports
limits on gases. “When he announced his voluntary greenhouse-gas intensity
reduction goal in 2002, he said it would be re-evaluated in light of scientific
developments. The science now clearly calls for a mandatory program that
establishes a price for greenhouse-gas emissions.” </P>
<P>According to the new report, the administration’s climate policy will result
in emissions growing 11 percent in 2012 from 2002. In the previous decade,
emissions grew at a rate of 11.6 percent, according to the <A
title="More articles about the Environmental Protection Agency."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/environmental_protection_agency/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Environmental
Protection Agency</A>. </P>
<P>The report also contains sections describing growing risks to water supplies,
coasts and ecosystems around the United States from the anticipated temperature
and precipitation changes driven by the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide
and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases.</P>
<P>Drafts of the report were provided to The New York Times by a government
employee at the request of a reporter. The employee did not say why this was
done, but other officials involved with producing it said they have been
frustrated with the slow pace of its preparation. It was due more than one year
ago.</P>
<P>The report arrives at a moment when advocates of controls are winning new
support in statehouses and Congress, not to mention Hollywood, where former Vice
President <A title="More articles about Al Gore."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/al_gore/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Al
Gore</A>’s cautionary documentary on the subject, “An Inconvenient Truth,” just
won an Academy Award. Five western governors have just announced plans to create
a program to cap and then trade carbon-dioxide emissions. And on Capitol Hill,
half a dozen bills have been introduced to curb emissions, with more
expected.</P>
<P>Ms. Hellmer defended Mr. Bush’s climate policy, saying the president was
committed to actions, like moderating gasoline use and researching alternative
energy, that limited climate risks while also increasing the country’s energy
and national security. She said Mr. Bush remained satisfied with voluntary
measures to slow emissions. </P>
<P>Myron Ebell, who directs climate and energy policy for the Competitive
Enterprise Institute, a group aligned with industries fighting curbs on
greenhouse gases, said Mr. Bush was right to acknowledge the inevitability of
growing emissions in a country with a growing population and economy. Mr. Ebell
added that the United States was doing better at slowing emissions than many
countries that had joined the Kyoto Protocol, the first binding international
treaty limiting such gases. </P>
<P>“Since 1990, for every 1 percent increase in emissions the economy has grown
about 3 percent,” Mr. Ebell said. “That’s good, and it’s better than the <A
title="More articles about the European Union."
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_union/index.html?inline=nyt-org">European
Union</A>’s performance.”</P>
<P>Several environmental campaigners said there was no real distinction between
Mr. Bush’s target and “business as usual,” adding that such mild steps were
unacceptable given recent findings by the <A
title="intergov panel on climate chnage"
href="http://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</A> and
other research groups tying recent warming more firmly than ever to smokestack
and tailpipe gases.</P>
<P>“If you set the hurdle one inch above the ground you can’t fail to clear it,”
said David D. Doniger, the director of climate policy for the <A
title="More articles about Natural Resources Defense Council"
href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/natural_resources_defense_council/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Natural
Resources Defense Council</A>, which has long criticized the administration and
sought binding cuts in greenhouse gases.</P>
<P>The report is the fourth in a series produced periodically by countries that
are parties to the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, a treaty signed
by the first President Bush. It is a self-generated summary of climate-related
trends and actions, including inventories of emissions of carbon dioxide and
other greenhouse gases, research on impacts of climate change, and policies to
limit climate risks and emissions. </P>
<P>The last such report, completed in 2002, put the administration in something
of a bind because it listed many harmful or costly projected impacts from
human-caused warming. Environmental groups used those findings to press
President Bush to seek mandatory caps on greenhouse gases, while foes of such
restrictions criticized the findings and criticized the administration for
letting them stay in the <A
href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/usnc3.pdf">document</A>. </P>
<P>While that report was approved by senior White House and State Department
officials, Mr. Bush quickly distanced himself from it, saying it was “put out by
the bureaucracy.”</P>
<P>The new report has been bogged down for nearly two years. In April 2005, the
State Department published a <A
href="http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/01jan20051800/edocket.access.gpo.gov/2005/05-7044.htm">notice</A>
in the Federal Register saying it would be released for public comment that
summer. </P>
<P>Several government officials and scientists involved with preparing or
reviewing parts of the report said that the recent departures of several senior
staff members running the administration’s climate research program delayed its
completion and no replacements have been named. The delays in finishing the
report come even as Mr. Bush has elevated global warming higher on his list of
concerns. This year, for the first time since he took office in 2001, he touched
on “global climate change” in the State of the Union Message, calling it a
“serious challenge.”</P>
<P>The draft report contains fresh projections of significant effects of
human-caused warming on the environment and resources of the United States and
emphasized the need to increase the country’s capacity to adapt to impending
changes. </P>
<P>Drought, particularly, will become a persistent threat, it said: “Warmer
temperatures expected with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are
expected to exacerbate present drought risks in the United States by increasing
the rate of evaporation.”</P>
<P>Water supplies in the Northwest and Southwest are also at risk. “Much of the
water used by people in the western United States comes from snow melt,” the
report said. “And a large fraction of the traditionally snow-covered areas of
this region has experienced a decline in spring snow pack, especially since
mid-century, despite increases in winter precipitation in many places.” Animal
and plant species face risks as climate zones shift but urbanized regions
prevent ecosystems from shifting as well, according to the draft report. </P>
<P>“Because changes in the climate system are likely to persist into the future
regardless of emissions mitigation, adaptation is an essential response for
future protection of climate-sensitive ecosystems,” it said.
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