<div> </div>
<div>All:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data set offered by Iraqbodycount is worth an examination. There are actual incident by incident death counts exhaustively documented. Minimum and maximum civilian death tolls are given:</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" width="100%" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr bgcolor="#ffffff">
<td class="count">50721 </td>
<td class="count">56219 </td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/">http://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Iraqbodycount offers a defense of their methods of obtaining their numbers:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.iraqbodycount.org/editorial/defended/">http://www.iraqbodycount.org/editorial/defended/</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Discussion of the Lancet study from Iraqbodycount:</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php?PHPSESSID=2d77d564fcd14ef8a770afdcc7b36f73">http://www.iraqbodycount.org/press/pr14.php?PHPSESSID=2d77d564fcd14ef8a770afdcc7b36f73</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>--------------</div>
<div>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett</div>
<div> </div>
<div><br><br> </div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 12/16/06, <b class="gmail_sendername">Andreas Schou</b> <<a href="mailto:ophite@gmail.com">ophite@gmail.com</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">On 12/16/06, g. crabtree <<a href="mailto:jampot@adelphia.net">jampot@adelphia.net</a>> wrote:<br>> From Slate magazine (no friend to conservatives)
<br>><br>> 100,000 Dead-or 8,000How many Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the<br>> war?<br>> By Fred Kaplan<br>> Posted Friday, Oct. 29, 2004, at 6:49 PM ET<br>> The authors of a peer-reviewed study, conducted by a survey team from Johns
<br>> Hopkins University, claim that about 100,000 Iraqi civilians have died as a<br>> result of the war. Yet a close look at the actual study, published online<br>> today by the British medical journal the Lancet, reveals that this number is
<br>> so loose as to be meaningless.<br>><br>> The report's authors derive this figure by estimating how many Iraqis died<br>> in a 14-month period before the U.S. invasion, conducting surveys on how<br>> many died in a similar period after the invasion began (more on those
<br>> surveys later), and subtracting the difference. That difference-the number<br>> of "extra" deaths in the post-invasion period-signifies the war's toll. That<br>> number is 98,000. But read the passage that cites the calculation more
<br>> fully:<br>><br>> We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during<br>> the post-war period.<br>><br>> Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the
<br>> set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you,<br>> I'll spell it out in plain English-which, disturbingly, the study never<br>> does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused
<br>> deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in<br>> plain language-98,000-is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast<br>> range.)<br>><br>> This isn't an estimate. It's a dart board.
<br>><br>><br>><br>> You can read the rest of the article at <a href="http://www.slate.com/id/2108887/">http://www.slate.com/id/2108887/</a><br><br>G --<br><br>This is in reference to a mortality study done in 2004; a different
<br>study than the one done in 2006. The one in 2006 used a sample size of<br>4,000, spread across the country, had a 99.9% confidence interval, and<br>required people claiming deaths in their families to produce death<br>
certificates. The main difference is in the number of cluster points<br>(that is, physical locations where families were surveyed) used to<br>survey families, which was limited by the fact that travel in Iraq is<br>so difficult.
<br><br>Of course, if the US government was collecting numbers on civilian<br>mortality, as they have in every conflict since World War II, we<br>wouldn't have to rely on investigators from Johns Hopkins. But,<br>peculiarly, they have decided that they just don't want to know how
<br>many civilians are dying in this war. One would think that that number<br>would be relevant to someone.<br><br>-- ACS<br><br>=======================================================<br>List services made available by First Step Internet,
<br>serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.<br> <a href="http://www.fsr.net">http://www.fsr.net</a><br> mailto:<a href="mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020@moscow.com</a><br>=======================================================
<br></blockquote></div><br>