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<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN class=828494502-22052006>Moscow
can be anywhere on the bell curve it wants. A Wal-Mart supercenter is in
Scottsdale, AZ. Wal-Mart had to shift from its status quo model to do
so. Any community can set standards for which Wal-Mart would be considered
acceptable. To dismiss Wal-Mart because of its past business model is not
being proactive. Any dog can learn new tricks. Set the parameters
and see if Wal-Mart steps up to the plate. If it's not willing, then it
can take a hike. Maybe that's already been done? Or maybe Wal-mart
is just not wanted or needed in Moscow.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=828494502-22052006></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=828494502-22052006>Mark</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr style="MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>
vision2020-bounces@moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-bounces@moscow.com]<B>On
Behalf Of </B>Mark Solomon<BR><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, May 21, 2006 4:58
PM<BR><B>To:</B> Jerry Weitz; vision2020@moscow.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:
[Vision2020] Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>Thanks, Jerry, for the model review. As you rightly point out, any
general study's conclusions have to be treated with a grain of salt when
applied to a specific, in this case, local situation. However, that does not
diminish the study's general conclusion that was derived using data related to
all (about 3000 at the time of the study) Walmart stores. The authors
note:</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=+1>Wal-Mart avoids counties with higher
population density (at least until recently) in part<BR>because of higher land
costs in these counties, and while the chain has traditionally located
in<BR>rural communities, it also avoids less populated, more remote
places.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>The above appears to describe Latah County, and Moscow in particular,
fairly well. We may not be in the center of the study's Bell curve, but I bet
we're not too far off to either side.</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Mark</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>At 4:22 PM -0700 5/21/06, Jerry Weitz wrote:</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite">I reviewed the Wal-Mart and County-Wide
Poverty and was impressed that they used a two stage regression model that
we use in Medicine/dentistry for epidemiological studies with
multivariates. Briefly and I am not an expert, the first stage (an
unstructured polytomous logistic regression approach) models the effects of
covariates that can be defined by cross-classifications. The second
stage (the subtype-specific regression parameters of the first stage model)
are modeled by using the multivariate structure of the subtype
definitions and the possible ordering of continuous naturing of certain
characteristics. Thus the second stage modeling reduces dimensional
biases. The complexity of variables in economics causes a study such
as this to be suspect and the authors conclusions kind of let them off the
hook in that "Wal-Mart creates both benefits and costs to
communities." So if there are omitted variables and a spacial
dependence bias, then at least two stage modeling methodology can be
efficiently corrected. What was missing for our region was the effect
of large government programs such as CRP: CRP effects on small ag business
such as repair shops, farm supply, equipment dealerships, fertilizer
companies, land value and sales etc. Other variates such as having a
large student population relative the general population, a declining
forest industry, relative lack of large private sector businesses may be
variates that would require future inquiry.<BR><BR>From my world
examples: PSA for Prostate Cancer Screening. Recall that "an
epidimic of prostate cancer" occured in the media since PSA
introduction. However the question is: would have Noble Laureate
Linus Pauling who died at 93 with prostate cancer would have lived longer
with therapies administered to him with a PSA test at age 60 or would the
therapies caused him to die earlier? Another, would CT for lung
cancer screening for Peter Jennings who died at 67 caused him to live
longer? Presently U. S. Preventive Services Task Force states "current
data do not support screening for lung cancer with any method."
Or another drug study: Bextra (cox-2inhibitor) where the contol proved to be
flawed yet the compaarative study was not flawed. The drug was thrown
out of the market. <BR><BR>Hence studies are easlily biased and can
lead to bad information/actions. The question to be answered:
Would it be in the interest of Moscow to have commercial development shift
to the corridor? Would this help or hinder the school district
revenues since the district has now stabilized enrollment after significant
ADA declines from the mid 90's. jerry<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>At 03:32 PM
5/17/06, Mark Solomon wrote:<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"><TT> Social Science Quarterly
Publishes Study: Wal-Mart Equals Higher Poverty Rates<BR><BR>Study claims
Wal-Mart raises poverty rates in the counties where its stores are
located.</TT><BR><TT><BR>MALDEN, Mass./EWORLDWIRE/May 17, 2006 --- A study
published in the latest issue of Social Science Quarterly is the first to
examine the effect of Wal-Mart stores on poverty rates. The study found
that nationwide an estimated 20,000 families have fallen below the
official poverty line as a result of the chain's
expansion.</TT></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE cite="" type="cite"><TT><BR>During the last decade, dependence
on the food stamp program nationwide increased by eight percent while in
counties with Wal-Mart stores, the increase was almost twice as large at
15.3 percent.<BR><BR>"After controlling for other factors determining
changes in the poverty rate over time, we find that counties with more
initial Wal-Mart stores and with more additions of stores between 1987 and
1998 experienced greater increases (or smaller decreases) in family
poverty rates during the 1990's economic boom period," stated Stephan
Goetz a professor of Agricultural and Regional Economics at The
Pennsylvania State University. Although Wal-Mart employs many people
living in its communities, for most, the hours worked and the wages paid
do not help these families transition out of poverty.<BR><BR>Another
effect is that the closing of "mom and pop" stores following the
appearance of a store leads to the closing of local businesses that
previously supplied those stores including, wholesalers, transporters,
logistics providers, accountants, lawyers and others. Goetz states, "By
displacing the local class of entrepreneurs, the Wal-Mart chain also
destroys local leadership capacity." Social Science Quartely author's
encourage community leaders to think about programs and policies in
anticipation of helping those displaced by the arrival of the
chain.<BR><BR>This study is published in the June issue of Social Science
Quarterly. Media wishing to receive a PDF of this article please contact
journalnews@bos.blackwellpublishing.net.<BR><BR>Connecting the Social
Sciences, Social Science Quarterly is nationally recognized as one of the
top journals in the field. It is published on behalf of the Southwestern
Social Science Association.<BR><BR>Dr. Stephan J. Goetz is a professor of
Agricultural and Regional Economics at The Pennsylvania State University.
Before coming to Penn State in 1999, he served on the faculty at the
University of Kentucky for nine years with research and teaching
responsibilities in economic development. Dr. Goetz is available for
questions and interviews.<BR><BR>Blackwell Publishing is the world's
leading society publisher, partnering with 665 academic and professional
societies. Blackwell publishes over 800 journals and, to date, has
published more than 6,000 books, across a wide range of academic, medical
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