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<DIV><FONT size=4>Doesn't anyone remember when this was last tried in large --
the creation of an Israeli state?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>Without debating the justification of that decision, it is
clear that such actions, especially when ill-planned, only serve to
increase hate and strife. They are solutions that lead to much
greater, perhaps almost unsolvable problems.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>Are we the gods of the universe whose mission is to
destroy/create/change physical/political entities wherever it suits our
fancy? {And to ignore hellish human genocide/mind-numbing
suffering whenever convenient like presently in the Sudan?}</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>W.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=starbliss@gmail.com href="mailto:starbliss@gmail.com">Ted Moffett</A>
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=mattd2107@hotmail.com
href="mailto:mattd2107@hotmail.com">Matt Decker</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Cc:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, March 21, 2006 2:32 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] Borah Symposium:Three Disastrous Years in
Iraq</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>All:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Dividing Iraq into Kurd, Sunni, and Shite "independent" states would not
solve the problems. These separate entities would fight each other over
access to oil fields, and continue their tribal and religious strife. And
US alley Turkey does not want an empowered Kurdish state on their border, while
the US does not want to push southern Iraq to ally itself more with
Iran, who already is influencing southern Iraq. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Offering each group a semi-autonomous governing region within a
united Iraq is another option, but why would this work when the separate state
option would not? </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>But we should back up and ask if the problems there are really ours to
solve for them. What if some nation decided they needed to solve our
nation's problems during our civil war that killed half a million in the US out
of a much smaller population than now? Would we have wanted France or
England to invade and force the north and the south to stop fighting and form
some sort of new peaceful government? Even if the US expressed what brutal
monsters they were in the death and suffering of the US Civil War, fought in
part over the human rights abuses of slavery, if another nation had invaded to
solve our problems, however well intentioned, I think they would have faced
an impossible situation. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Isn't it wise to sometimes let nations solve their own internal problems
rather than thinking military force can mandate that everyone to play
nice? Wouldn't a policy that aimed at toppling Saddam from within, using
the resources and will of the Iraq people, have been more wise? It was
obvious to many that the Iraq invasion to democratize Iraq, even assuming the
most noble aims, was a huge gamble, given the tribal and religious strife
endemic to that area. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It is often stated that just as the US maintained a military presence in
Germany and Japan post WWII for various reasons, we must militarily stay in
Iraq for similar reasons. But of course Japan and Germany had
occupied huge areas of the world in an attempt at world domination.
Germany attacked, conquered and occupied US allies, and Japan attacked
Pearl Harbor and the US Navy. Iraq was not threatening the US in an
alliance aimed at world domination. And even Bush is now going public
stating that Saddam and Iraq were not tied to 9/11. Also, the invasion of
Kuwait had been repelled and Iraq militarily was devastated after that
war. And Saddam was not liked by Al Queda, who viewed him as a sort of
Islamic heretic. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It would be wonderful if the US could militarily police the world removing
dictators and improving human rights as a general policy, but in some cases
military meddling in other nation's internal strife can result in a worse
outcome, which appears to be happening in Iraq. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>This is a lose-lose-lose-lose scenario, whether we increase our forces
(yes, some insist this is what is needed to really stop the insurgency and
police Iraq), stay as now, withdraw slowly turning security over to Iraq,
waiting on the sidelines ready to re-invade if things get out of control, or
withdraw more permanently, there are lots of options, but none that are a good
solution. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>But we won't totally withdraw... this option should not even be
realistically considered. The US intends to keep permanent military bases
in Iraq. The US will need them for the future oil wars. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The Borah Symposium next week should be interesting, given it focuses on
resource and/or oil wars.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.martin.uidaho.edu/borah/2006_symposium.html">http://www.martin.uidaho.edu/borah/2006_symposium.html</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.martin.uidaho.edu/borah/">http://www.martin.uidaho.edu/borah/</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Ted Moffett</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><BR> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=gmail_quote>On 3/20/06, <B class=gmail_sendername>Matt
Decker</B> <<A onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)"
href="mailto:mattd2107@hotmail.com" target=_blank>mattd2107@hotmail.com </A>>
wrote:</SPAN>
<BLOCKQUOTE class=gmail_quote
style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">Mr
Gier,<BR><BR>I have to applaud your well written theory below. I would have to
agree with<BR>a lot of which you have stated. What might you think we do
though. I really <BR>think pulling out within the next 2-4 months would do
more damage then not.<BR>What about dividing up that county. Shites ,Sunnis,
and Kurds obviously<BR>can't get along, well at least the Shites and Sunnis?
Call me crazy but I <BR>say divide it up and get
out.<BR><BR>Thoughts<BR>Matt<BR><BR><BR>>From: <A
onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)"
href="mailto:nickgier@adelphia.net"
target=_blank>nickgier@adelphia.net</A><BR>>To: <A
onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)"
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com"
target=_blank>vision2020@moscow.com</A><BR>>Subject: [Vision2020] Three
Disastrous Years in Iraq<BR>>Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2006 18:05:23 -0500
<BR>><BR>>Greetings:<BR>><BR>>My KRFA radio commentary this week
will be drawn from the longer column<BR>>below. <BR>>I've attached it as
a Word file for those who say that my postings always<BR>>come <BR>>up
blanks. Tony goes off half-cocked and I draw blanks. It
just aint'<BR>>fair.<BR>><BR>>Nick Gier<BR>><BR>>WOULD SADDAM
HAVE BEEN BETTER?<BR>>THREE DISASTROUS YEARS IN IRAQ<BR>><BR>>Iraq
has passed through three years that are the worst in its history.
<BR>>--Baghdad resident Munthir Rasheed<BR>><BR>>by Nick Gier,
Emeritus Professor, University of Idaho
<BR>><BR>> President Bush has
predicted that 75 percent of Iraq will soon be<BR>>controlled by
<BR>>Iraqi forces. What he does not tell us is that the loyalty
of these police<BR>>and<BR>>army units is uncertain because of ethnic
and religious divisions. <BR>><BR>>
In his war anniversary speech Bush lauded the progress of a town called
<BR>>Tall<BR>>Afar. Last month reporter Laurence Kaplan was coming into
Tall Afar with an<BR>>U.S.<BR>>Army convoy when he witnessed heavy gun
fire. He assumed that it was an <BR>>insurgent attack, but it
turned out that it was a skirmish between the <BR>>local<BR>>police,
mostly Sunnis, and the Iraqi Army, primarily Shias and
Kurds.<BR>><BR>>The Kurds in North, 90 percent of whom recently voted
for an independent <BR>>state,<BR>>still hold their Peshmarga forces (at
least 50,000) under their own <BR>>command, and<BR>>it is only a matter
of time before they take over the largest oil fields
in<BR>>the<BR>>country.<BR>><BR>>Even more troublesome are the
Shia militias, who, with close ties to Iran,<BR>>control many areas of
Iraq. Moqtada al-Sadr, with whom the U.S.
fought<BR>>pitched<BR>>battles in 2004, recently returned from a trip to
Tehran where his Iranian <BR>>sponsors promised continued support for his
10,000-man Mahdi Army. (It was <BR>>only<BR>>about 600 men in
2003.) Al-Sadr has made his loyalties clear: "The Madhi<BR>>Army
is<BR>>beyond the Iraqi Army. It was established to defend
Islam." <BR>><BR>>It is not unusual for Iraqi patrols in Sadr City,
Baghdad's largest slum, <BR>>to be<BR>>greeted by children who hand them
pictures of their hero. Although the<BR>>soldiers<BR>>defend
themselves by saying that they do so under duress, they always hold
<BR>>up<BR>>the photos to tremendous cheer and applause.
<BR>><BR>>We need to understand that al-Sadr is not just some fringe
element. "The<BR>>New<BR>>Republic" has called him Iraq’s
Dick Cheney, and his followers are <BR>>expected to<BR>>get up to five
cabinet posts in the new government. He is a major player in
<BR>>the<BR>>United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which just won the December
2005 election. The<BR>>UIA<BR>>is headed by Aziz Al Hakim, a
conservative cleric with close ties to Iran. <BR>>The<BR>>UIA also
contains the Dawa Party, whose leader lived in Iranian exile for
<BR>>many<BR>>years.<BR>><BR>>Another member of the UIA is the
Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution<BR>>in<BR>>Iraq. This group has its own militia,
the 12,000-man Badr Corps, which is<BR>>also <BR>>financed by
Iranians. Iraq's current Interior Minister, Bayn Jabr, used
to<BR>>be<BR>>the head of Badr Corps. The Sunnis have very good reasons
to suspect that <BR>>the<BR>>Interior Ministry favors the Shia
militias. In December, 2004, U. S. <BR>>troops<BR>>found 173
prisoners, mostly Sunnis, in an interrogation center run by
the<BR>>Interior Ministry. Bayn Jabr rejected accusations that
this was a torture <BR>>chamber, even though many showed clear signs of
abuse, including missing <BR>>fingernails.<BR>><BR>>Basra, Iraq's
third largest city, is essentially under the control of
Shia<BR>>paramilitary units. The head of Basra’s police
estimates that half of <BR>>his force<BR>>has been infiltrated by Shia
militants. Last fall three women at Basra <BR>>University were killed
because they were unveiled in public.<BR>><BR>>Quite apart from these
extreme actions, the new constitution could very <BR>>well<BR>>remove
many rights that women enjoyed under the former regime. Although
<BR>>Article<BR>>14 guarantees equality for Iraqi women it also states
that no legislation<BR>>can<BR>>contradict Islamic law. This
means that Iraqi women could lose their <BR>>freedom to<BR>>choose their
own husbands and lose their inheritance rights. <BR>><BR>>Basra is
headquarters for 8,500 British soldiers, who, like most
Americans,<BR>>are<BR>>usually confined to their bases have learned not
to intervene against the <BR>>militias. One Iraqi human rights
activist complained that "the British <BR>>army<BR>>handed the city to
the Islamist groups as a gift." Many observers
predict<BR>>that<BR>>southern Iraq could easily become a satellite state
of Iran and take with <BR>>it the<BR>>second largest source of Iraqi
oil. <BR>><BR>>The insurgents have also infiltrated Baghdad’s security
forces. The most<BR>>serious<BR>>threat was a recent attempt by
militants, disguised as security personnel, <BR>>to<BR>>penetrate the
Green Zone. It was later discovered that a high official in
<BR>>the<BR>>Interior Ministry was involved. If the plan had
not been nipped in the<BR>>bud, it<BR>>could have led to hostage crisis
similar to the one at the American embassy <BR>>in<BR>>Tehran in
1979-80. <BR>><BR>>"The New Republic" reports that as recent as a year
ago Iraqis polled<BR>>favored a<BR>>secular state, but now 70 percent
want an Islamic state and the new <BR>>constitution<BR>>gives them legal
grounds to have it. The disastrous situation in Iraq
<BR>>evidently<BR>>has forced many former secularists to seek refuge
what used to be only<BR>>nominal<BR>>religious affiliations.
<BR>><BR>>On March 19, 2006, former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi
confirmed what <BR>>many<BR>>have feared: "It is unfortunate that we are
in civil war. We are losing<BR>>each<BR>>day, as an average, 50 to 60
people throughout the country, if not more. If <BR>>this<BR>>is not
civil war, then [only] God knows what civil war is." <BR>><BR>>The Bush
administration’s original goals in Iraq were focused on our
own<BR>>interests, not Iraqi interests. Bush manufactured a case
for war based on <BR>>he<BR>>claimed were direct threats to the United
States. Building a democratic <BR>>Iraq<BR>>was an
afterthought to the invasion, and Rumsfeld threw out a well
reasoned<BR>>State Department plan for Iraqi nation building.
<BR>><BR>>Even if Saddam had kicked out the second group of UN
inspectors, we still <BR>>could<BR>>have contained him. The
no-fly zone in the north would have continued to<BR>>protect the Kurds and
the one in the south would have shielded the Shias
<BR>>from<BR>>attack. The second round of inspections was
thorough enough to show that <BR>>Saddam<BR>>had not rearmed and
possessed no WMDs.<BR>><BR>>There was a ruthless logic in the Reagan
administration’s policy of <BR>>supporting a<BR>>secular Iraq against
a radically religious Iran. Ironically, a much
<BR>>younger<BR>>Rumsfeld, overlooking Saddam’s gassing of the Kurds
and other atrocities,<BR>>was a<BR>>willing agent in executing that
policy. The Iranians have just elected a <BR>>president far more radical
than previous executives, and we have pushed for <BR>>Iraqi elections that
resulted in the victory of pro-Iranian parties.<BR>>Bush's war<BR>>in
Iraq has produced the worst possible outcome for our interests in the
<BR>>Middle<BR>>East.<BR>><BR>>Iraq's oil production is half what
it was before the war and basic <BR>>utilities<BR>>such as water,
electricity, heating oil, and sewer are also worse. I<BR>>wonder
how <BR>>many Iraqis agree with this professor from Basra University who
had this to<BR>>say<BR>>on the third anniversary of the war: "All in
all, our life is worse than <BR>>when we<BR>>used to live under Saddam
because now we are under fire. Now we can be <BR>>killed<BR>>any time on
the streets."<BR>><BR>>See my "Deceptions of War" at<BR>><A
onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)"
href="http://users.adelphia.net/~nickgier/deceptions.htm" target=_blank>
http://users.adelphia.net/~nickgier/deceptions.htm </A>.<BR>>My sources for
column above were the Associated Press, the BBC,
The<BR>>Washington<BR>>Post, the New York Times, The New York Review of
Books, The Nation, and The <BR>>New<BR>>Republic. I will
provide specific documentation upon request.
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