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<DIV><FONT size=4>Linda, et al,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>For related information:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4><A
href="http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/05/11/britain.war.memo/index.html">http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/05/11/britain.war.memo/index.html</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=4>W.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=lpall@moscow.com href="mailto:lpall@moscow.com">Linda Pall</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 12, 2005 8:58
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] Molly Ivins on Iraq
and the British Smoking Gun Memo</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dear Visionaries,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Lest you forget...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Is there an exit strategy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hoping for the best,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Linda Pall</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>MOLLY IVINS <BR><BR>RELEASE: TUESDAY, MAY 10, 2005, AND
THEREAFTER <BR><BR><BR><BR>AUSTIN, Texas -- Meanwhile, back in Iraq. I was
going to leave out of this column everything about how we got into Iraq, or
whether it was wise, and or whether the infamous "they" knowingly lied to us.
(Although I did plan to point out I would be nobly refraining from poking at
that pus-riddled question.) <BR><BR>Since I believe one of our greatest
strengths as Americans is shrewd practicality, I thought it was time we moved
past the now unhelpful, "How did we get into his mess?" to the more
utilitarian, "What the hell do we do now?" <BR><BR>However, I cannot let this
astounding Downing Street memo go unmentioned. <BR><BR>On May 1, the Sunday
Times of London printed a secret memo that went to the defense secretary,
foreign secretary, attorney general and other high officials. It is the
minutes of their meeting on Iraq with Tony Blair. The memo was written by
Matthew Rycroft, a Downing Street foreign policy aide. It has been confirmed
as legitimate and is dated July 23, 2002. I suppose the correct cliche is
"smoking gun." <BR><BR>"C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There
was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as
inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified
by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were
being fixed around the policy. (There it is.) The NSC (National Security
Council) had no patience with the U.N. route, and no enthusiasm for publishing
material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in
Washington of the aftermath after military action." <BR><BR>After some
paragraphs on tactical considerations, Rycroft reports, "No decisions had been
taken, but he (British defense secretary) thought the most likely timing in
U.S. minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline
beginning 30 days before the U.S. congressional elections. <BR><BR>"The
foreign secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It
seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if
the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not
threatening his neighbors, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya,
North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to
allow back in the U.N. weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal
justification for the use of force. <BR><BR>"The attorney general said that
the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There
were three possible legal bases: self-defense, humanitarian intervention or
UNSC authorization. The first and second could not be the base in this case."
<BR><BR>There is much more in the memo, which can be found easily online.
What's difficult now is placing the memo in the timeframe. Can you remember
how little you knew about a war with Iraq in July 2002? Most of us who opposed
the war concluded some time ago this was the way it went down. There was
plenty of evidence, though nothing this direct and cold. Think of the
difference it would have made if we had known all this three years ago. Now?
The memo was a huge story in Britain but is almost unreported here.
<BR><BR>The memo does get us some forwarder. At least it finally settles this
ridiculous debate about how Dear Leader Bush just wanted to bring democracy
all along and we did it all for George Washington. <BR><BR>Enough said. What
to do? Now that we're there, at least we're on the right side, not even
withstanding the disgusting Ahmed Chalabi as oil minister. Unfortunately, our
very support for the good guys is making it much harder for them. A tactical
Catch-22. I was impressed by the premise of Reza Aslan's new book, "No God but
God," which is that all of Islam is undergoing a struggle between the
modernists and the traditionalists, between reformers and reactionaries.
<BR><BR>But in Iraq, which already had a secular state, we have the additional
complication of sectarian/ethnic divisions -- your Sunnis, your Shiites, your
Kurds -- not to mention, the tribalism within those divisions. (Am I bitter
enough to point out once again that Paul Wolfowitz said under oath, "There is
no history ethnic strife in Iraq"? You bet your ass I am.) <BR><BR>Our most
basic problem in-country is that having the U.S. of A. on your side
automatically makes you about as popular as a socialist in the Texas
Legislature: We are working against the guys we want to win by supporting
them. This requires some serious skulling but is not, in politics, all that
unusual a pickle. <BR><BR>There is a political solution. Like all politics, it
requires a deal. What about letting the interim government make a deal with
the Sunnis for us to withdraw -- as in, "You cooperate with us, and we'll get
the Americans out of here for you." We can't make that deal, but the Iraqis
can. <BR><BR>To find out more about Molly Ivins and read features by other
Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate web
page at www.creators.com. <BR><BR>COPYRIGHT 2005 CREATORS SYNDICATE
INC.</FONT></DIV>
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