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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Make sure that your speakers are on when
you click on:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><a
href="http://toostupidtobepresident.com/shockwave/votingmachines.htm">http://toostupidtobepresident.com/shockwave/votingmachines.htm</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Tom “49er” Hansen<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'>We could learn a lot from crayons: some are
sharp, some are pretty, some are dull, some have weird names, and all are
different colors....but they all exist very nicely in the same box. </span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
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face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=3 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> vision2020-bounces@moscow.com
[mailto:vision2020-bounces@moscow.com] <b><span style='font-weight:bold'>On
Behalf Of </span></b>Dick Schmidt<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, November 17, 2004
6:58 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Dan Carscallen; <st1:PersonName
w:st="on">vision2020@moscow.com</st1:PersonName><br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [Vision2020] I Smell
a Rat</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Dan,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>The president of Diebold, the manufacture of a good share of the
electronic voting machines without paper backup and who has contributed heavily
to the Republicans, made the statement in so many words that he would do
whatever necessary to ensure Bush was reelected. That is a very brash statement
for someone in his position. I smell a rat also in that I wouldn't put it past
anyone to somehow rig the machines.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Dick<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<blockquote style='border:none;border-left:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 3.0pt;
margin-left:3.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>----- Original Message ----- <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div style='font-color:black'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='background:#E4E4E4'><b><font size=2 face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font
size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <a
href="mailto:predator75@moscow.com" title="predator75@moscow.com">Dan
Carscallen</a> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>To:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <a
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com" title="vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</a>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> Wednesday,
November 17, 2004 12:27 PM<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'> RE: [Vision2020] I
Smell a Rat<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=maroon face="Comic Sans MS"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:maroon'>again, I take
issue:</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=maroon face="Comic Sans MS"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:maroon'>1.
Maybe my earlier take on people giving false exit poll answers was wrong, but
maybe some people just refused to answer. I know I wouldn't. None
of their damn business.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=maroon face="Comic Sans MS"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:maroon'>2. In
my limited experience, aren't most "hackers" who would tamper with
such things be more left leaning, therefore swinging the vote Kerry's
way? Heck, I watch movies, those hacker people for damn sure aren't
Republicans.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=maroon face="Comic Sans MS"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:maroon'>3.
Seems a real stretch to think someone would perpetrate such a "fraud".
Maybe I'm just overly honest, and like to think others are as well.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=maroon face="Comic Sans MS"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:maroon'>4.
maybe the liberals/democrats should take a cue from one of the biggest
anti-Bush sites out there, and MoveOn. There's always 2008.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=maroon face="Comic Sans MS"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Comic Sans MS";color:maroon'>DC</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<blockquote style='margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b> vision2020-bounces@moscow.com
[mailto:vision2020-bounces@moscow.com] <b><span style='font-weight:bold'>On
Behalf Of </span></b>Tbertruss@aol.com<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Wednesday, November 17, 2004
11:59 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> <st1:PersonName w:st="on">vision2020@moscow.com</st1:PersonName><br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [Vision2020] I Smell a
Rat</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font size=2 face=Arial
PTSIZE=10 FAMILY=SANSSERIF><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><a
href="http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10414">http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=10414</a><br>
<br>
</span></font><b><font color="#ff9900" face=Arial PTSIZE=12 FAMILY=SANSSERIF
BACK="#ffffff"><span style='font-family:Arial;color:#FF9900;background:white;
font-weight:bold'>I Smell a Rat<br>
<br>
</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black face=Arial PTSIZE=10
FAMILY=SANSSERIF BACK="#ffffff"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black;background:white'>I smell a rat. It has that distinctive and
all-too-familiar odor of the species Republicanus floridius. We got a nasty
bite from this pest four years ago and never quite recovered. Symptoms of a
long-term infection are becoming distressingly apparent. The first sign of the
rat was on election night. The jubilation of early exit polling had given way
to rising anxiety as states fell one by one to the Red Tide. It was getting
late in the smoky cellar of a <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Prague</st1:place></st1:City>
sports bar where a crowd of expats had gathered. We had been hoping to go home
to bed early, confident of victory. Those hopes had evaporated in a flurry of
early precinct reports from <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State> and <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ohio</st1:place></st1:State>. <br>
<br>
By 3 AM, conversation had died and we were grimly sipping beers and watching as
those two key states seemed to be slipping further and further to crimson.
Suddenly, a friend who had left two hours earlier rushed in and handed us a
printout. <br>
<br>
"Zogby's calling it for Kerry." He smacked the sheet decisively.
"Definitely. He's got both <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State> and <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ohio</st1:place></st1:State> in the Kerry
column. Kerry only needs one." Satisfied, we went to bed, confident we
would wake with the world a better place. Victory was at hand. <br>
<br>
The morning told a different story, of course. No <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State> victory for Kerry - Bush had a
decisive margin of nearly 400,000 votes. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ohio</st1:place></st1:State>
was not even close enough for Kerry to demand that all the votes be counted.
The pollsters had been dead wrong, Bush had four more years and a powerful
mandate. Onward Christian soldiers - next stop, <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Tehran</st1:place></st1:City>. <br>
<br>
Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics <br>
<br>
I work with statistics and polling data every day. Something rubbed me the
wrong way. I checked the exit polls for <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State>
- all wrong. CNN's results indicated a Kerry win: turnout matched voter
registration, and independents had broken 59% to 41% for Kerry. <br>
<br>
Polling is an imprecise science. Yet its very imprecision is itself
quantifiable and follows regular patterns. Differences between actual results and
those expected from polling data must be explainable by identifiable factors if
the polling sample is robust enough. With almost 3.000 respondents in <st1:State
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State> alone, the CNN
poll sample was pretty robust. <br>
<br>
The first signs of the rat were identified by Kathy Dopp, who conducted a
simple analysis of voter registrations by party in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State> and compared them to presidential
vote results. Basically she multiplied the total votes cast in a county by the
percentage of voters registered Republican: this gave an expected Republican
vote. She then compared this to the actual result. <br>
<br>
Her analysis is startling. Certain counties voted for Bush far in excess of
what one would expect based on the share of Republican registrations in that
county. They key phrase is "certain counties" - there is
extraordinary variance between individual counties. Most counties fall more or
less in line with what one would expect based on the share of Republican
registrations, but some differ wildly. <br>
<br>
How to explain this incredible variance? Dopp found one over-riding factor:
whether the county used electronic touch-screen voting, or paper ballots which
were optically scanned into a computer. All of those with touch-screen voting
had results relatively in line with her expected results, while all of those
with extreme variance were in counties with optical scanning. <br>
<br>
The intimation, clearly, is fraud. Ballots are scanned; results are fed into
precinct computers; these are sent to a county-wide database, whose results are
fed into the statewide electoral totals. At any point after physical ballots
become databases, the system is vulnerable to external hackers. <br>
<br>
It seemed too easy, and Dopp's method seemed simplistic. I re-ran the results
using CNN's exit polling data. In each county, I took the number of
registrations and assigned correctional factors based on the CNN poll to
predict turnout among Republicans, Democrats, and independents. I then used the
vote shares from the polls to predict a likely number of Republican votes per
county. I compared this 'expected' Republican vote to the actual Republican
vote. <br>
<br>
The results are shocking. Overall, Bush received 2% fewer votes in counties
with electronic touch-screen voting than expected. In counties with optical
scanning, he received 16% more. This 16% would not be strange if it were spread
across counties more or less evenly. It is not. In 11 different counties, the
'actual' Bush vote was at least twice higher than the expected vote. 13
counties had Bush vote tallies 50 - 100% higher than expected. In one county
where 88% of voters are registered Democrats, Bush got nearly two thirds of the
vote - three times more than predicted by my model. <br>
<br>
Again, polling can be wrong. It is difficult to believe it can be that wrong.
Fortunately, however, we can test how wrong it would have to be to give the
'actual' result. <br>
<br>
I tested two alternative scenarios to see how wrong CNN would have to have been
to explain the election result. In the first, I assumed they had been wildly
off the mark in the turnout figures - i.e. far more Republicans and
independents had come out than Democrats. In the second I assumed the voting
shares were completely wrong, and that the Republicans had been able to
massively poach voters from the Democrat base. <br>
<br>
In the first scenario, I assumed 90% of Republicans and independents voted, and
the remaining ballots were cast by Democrats. This explains the result in
counties with optical scanning to within 5%. However, in this scenario
Democratic turnout would have been only 51% in the optical scanning counties -
barely exceeding half of Republican turnout. It also does not solve the
enormous problems in individual counties. 7 counties in this scenario still
have actual vote tallies for Bush that are at least 100% higher than predicted
by the model - an extremely unlikely result. <br>
<br>
In the second scenario I assumed that Bush had actually got 100% of the vote
from Republicans and 50% from independents (versus CNN polling results which
were 93% and 41% respectively). If this gave enough votes for Bush to explain
the county's results, I left the amount of Democratic registered voters ballots
cast for Bush as they were predicted by CNN (14% voted for Bush). If this did
not explain the result, I calculated how many Democrats would have to vote for
Bush. <br>
<br>
In 41 of 52 counties, this did not explain the result and Bush must have gotten
more than CNN's predicted 14% of Democratic ballots - not an unreasonable
assumption by itself. However, in 21 counties more than 50% of Democratic votes
would have to have defected to Bush to account for the county result - in four
counties, at least 70% would have been required. These results are absurdly
unlikely. <br>
<br>
The Second Rat <br>
<br>
A previously undiscovered species of rat, Republicanus cuyahogus, has been found
in <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ohio</st1:place></st1:State>.
Before the election, I wrote snide letters to a state legislator for Cuyahoga
county who, according to media reports, was preparing an army of enforcers to
keep 'suspect' (read: minority) voters away from the polls. One of his
assistants wrote me back very pleasant mails to the effect that they had no
intention of trying to suppress voter turnout, and in fact only wanted to
encourage people to vote. <br>
<br>
They did their job too well. According to the official statistics for Cuyahoga
county, a number of precincts had voter turnout well above the national
average: in fact, turnout was well over 100% of registered voters, and in
several cases well above the total number of people who have lived in the
precinct in the last century or so. <br>
<br>
In 30 precincts, more ballots were cast than voters were registered in the
county. According to county regulations, voters must cast their ballot in the
precinct in which they are registered. Yet in these thirty precincts, nearly
100.000 more people voted than are registered to vote - this out of a total of
251.946 registrations. These are not marginal differences - this is a 39%
over-vote. In some precincts the over-vote was well over 100%. One precinct
with 558 registered voters cast nearly 9,000 ballots. As one astute observer
noted, it's the ballot-box equivalent of Jesus' miracle of the fishes. Bush
being such a man of God, perhaps we should not be surprised. <br>
<br>
What to Do? <br>
<br>
This is not an idle statistical exercise. Either the raw data from two critical
battleground states is completely erroneous, or something has gone horribly
awry in our electoral system - again. Like many Americans, I was dissatisfied
with and suspicious of the way the <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Florida</st1:place></st1:State>
recount was resolved in 2000. But at the same time, I was convinced of one
thing: we must let the system work, and accept its result, no matter how unjust
it might appear. <br>
<br>
With this acceptance, we placed our implicit faith in the Bush Administration
that it would not abuse its position: that it would recognize its fragile mandate
for what it was, respect the will of the majority of people who voted against
them, and move to build consensus wherever possible and effect change
cautiously when needed. Above all, we believed that both Democrats and
Republicans would recognize the over-riding importance of revitalizing the
integrity of the electoral system and healing the bruised faith of both
constituencies. <br>
<br>
This faith has been shattered. Bush has not led the nation to unity, but ruled
through fear and division. Dishonesty and deceit in areas critical to the
public interest have been the hallmark of his Administration. I state this not
to throw gratuitous insults, but to place the <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State>
and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Ohio</st1:place></st1:State>
electoral results in their proper context. For the GOP to claim now that we
must take anything on faith, let alone astonishingly suspicious results in a
hard-fought and extraordinarily bitter election, is pure fantasy. It does not
even merit discussion. <br>
<br>
The facts as I see them now defy all logical explanations save one - massive
and systematic vote fraud. We cannot accept the result of the 2004 presidential
election as legitimate until these discrepancies are rigorously and completely
explained. From the Valerie Plame case to the horrors of Abu Ghraib, George
Bush has been reluctant to seek answers and assign accountability when it does
not suit his purposes. But this is one time when no American should accept not
getting a straight answer. Until then, George Bush is still, and will remain,
the 'Accidental President' of 2000. One of his many enduring and shameful
legacies will be that of seizing power through two illegitimate elections
conducted on his brother's watch, and engineering a fundamental corruption at
the very heart of the greatest democracy the world has known. We must not permit
this to happen again. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<i><span style='font-style:italic'>(11/15/2004)</span></i> <br>
- By Colin Shea, <i><span style='font-style:italic'>The
Sierra Times, Freezer Box</span></i> </span></font><font color=black
face=Arial PTSIZE=12 FAMILY=SANSSERIF BACK="#ffffff"><span style='font-family:
Arial;color:black;background:white'><br>
<br>
---------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
V2020 Post by Ted Moffett<br>
<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</blockquote>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>_____________________________________________________<br>
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