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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It is why I never believe the polls. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PK</FONT></DIV>
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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=Tbertruss@aol.com
href="mailto:Tbertruss@aol.com">Tbertruss@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=vision2020@moscow.com
href="mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">vision2020@moscow.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, September 27, 2004 9:51
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] Dubious Polls</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=arial,helvetica><FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF" PTSIZE="10"><BR>SAM HUSSEINI, <A
href="mailto:sam@accuracy.org">sam@accuracy.org</A>, <A
href="http://www.husseini.org">http://www.husseini.org</A>, <A
href="http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/viewpoints/stories/092704dnedihusseini.dba34.html">http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/viewpoints/stories/092704dnedihusseini.dba34.html</A>
<BR>Author of the article "A Better Gauge of Public Opinion?" which appears in
today's Dallas Morning News, Husseini said today: "With all the polling going
on, it's remarkable that apparently not a single poll is asking whom people
want to be president. Virtually every poll has a structure like this: 'If the
next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the
Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an independent,
for whom would you most likely vote?' Many people will reflexively say 'Bush'
simply because they don't want Kerry, or 'Kerry' because they don't want Bush
-- even if their first choice is Nader or some other third party candidate."
<BR><BR>Husseini added: "Instead of really focusing on people's opinions,
polls focus on the action of voting in a hypothetical context -- if the
'election were being held today' -- when we know it isn't. Pollsters
apparently do that because they assume they should be predicting how the
election will turn out, rather than offering a clear picture of what the
public is thinking. A real 'public opinion' poll might ask: 'Regardless of his
chances of winning, which of the following candidates do you most want to be
president?' Another way would be to use Instant Runoff Voting: 'Please rank
the following in order of whom you would personally want to be president.' By
asking the questions they do -- and by not asking these other questions --
pollsters are in effect limiting the choices of the public. Polls should be a
method for the public to articulate its desires rather than a tool of pundits
or parties. Currently, polls solidify the status of the 'major candidates' and
reduce citizens to little more than spectators at a horse race, or gamblers.
<BR><BR>"These issues are key because of the role that polls play in our
presidential election. For example, the Commission on Presidential Debates
states that it will only allow candidates who achieve 15 percent in 'national
public opinion polls' into its debates. But the current polls are not 'public
opinion polls.' If the CPD genuinely wanted to fulfill its own criteria, it
would rely on polls that actually ask the U.S. public who it wants to be
president." Husseini is communications director for the Institute for Public
Accuracy. <BR><BR>For more information, contact at the Institute for Public
Accuracy: <BR>Sam Husseini, (202) 332-5055; or David Zupan, (541) 484-9167
<BR><BR>----------------------------------------------<BR>V2020 Post by Ted
Moffett</FONT>
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