[Vision2020] NASA Climate Scientist Gavin Schmidt 11-20-21: "...warming...tied to the cumulative emissions."

Ted Moffett starbliss at gmail.com
Wed Nov 24 17:27:00 PST 2021

All statements below from the website.  First paragraph broken up with some
text larger for emphasis

RealClimate: Net Zero/Not Zero

At the COP26 gathering last week much of the discussion related to
“Net-Zero” goals. This concept derives from important physical science
results highlighted in the Special Report on 1.5ºC and more thoroughly in
the last IPCC report that future warming is tied to future emissions, and
that warming will effectively cease only once anthropogenic CO2 emissions
are balanced by anthropogenic CO2 removals.

But some activists have (rightly) pointed out that large-scale CO2 removals
are as yet untested, and so reliance on them to any significant extent to
balance out emissions

is akin not really committing to net zero at all.

Their point is that “net-zero” is not zero and hence will serve as a
smokescreen for insufficient climate action.

To help sort this out some background might be helpful.

Net-zero CO2 has real geophysical significance

With empirical data and more and better modeling, it has become clear that,
to first approximation, the eventual anthropogenic warming from carbon
dioxide is tied to the cumulative emissions. This figure is from the AR6
Every tonne of CO2 emissions adds to global warming
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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