[Vision2020] Singapore or Sweden: Which Way to Beat COVID-19? (updated)

[Nicholas Gier]

Good Morning Visionaries:

Below is a copy of my column for this morning's DNews.

I did not update my notes on Singapore. There has now been a resurgence of
the virus, mainly in dense living quarters of foreign workers. One big
difference between Sweden and Singapore is widespread inequality between
the rich and the poor, even thought the poor have a good safety net.

Still, Singapore and its East Asian neighbors are the best models.
Singapore with 5.6 million people has added just one more death (now 12),
and its fatality rate and gone down to .11 percent. Sweden's continues to
climb, now at 12.1 percent. The U.S. has also risen to 5.6 percent.

Note: these counts--especially where there has not been sufficient
testing--are most likely undercounts.  We are finding more and more U.S.
cases--especially in February--that were counted--for example-- one as
heart failure in CA. There were February cases in the Northeast as well.
nfg

Dale Courtney has now written two columns on the coronavirus — one praising
Singapore (April 1) and now one extolling Sweden (April 15). It is true
that both nations have avoided lockdown and both are democratic socialist
states, but that is where the similarities end.

Courtney’s column on Singapore contains two delicious ironies. First,
libertarians such as he would normally not tolerate the strict measures
taken. Would Courtney wear a state mandated electronic wristband that makes
sure he does not break quarantine?

The second savory irony is that Courtney does not realize that Singapore
was a member of the non-communist Socialist International until the Dutch
Labor Party asked it to leave in 1976 because of human rights violations.

Singapore has developed a robust welfare state but kept most of the economy
in private hands. Personal and business taxes are low in the city-state
(topping out at 20 percent for both), but everyone has to pay an additional
20 percent for generous social and health benefits.

Along with its East Asian neighbors, Singapore has done comprehensive
testing, tracing, and strict quarantine. In Iceland, 50 percent of those
who were tested showed no symptoms of the virus. Even with symptoms
millions of Americans still can’t get tested, and Trump will be responsible
for this colossal negligence.

Sweden has tested only those who have shown symptoms, and this insufficient
response has led a mortality rate of 12.1 percent, while Singapore’s is .11
percent (12 deaths). Rather than go up, the number of tests analyzed in
American labs went down 30 percent in early April. Our fatality rate is now
5.6 percent and climbing.

Deaths from the virus are most likely undercounted in Sweden and the U.S.,
primarily because people who are undiagnosed may die of kidney, heart, as
well as respiratory failure. (There are signs of deliberate undercount in
some red states.) A more accurate measure is the general mortality rate.
Sweden’s has risen to 88 deaths per million, while Denmark’s rate is 47 per
million while in lockdown.

Making for strange bedfellows, states without stay-at-home orders are
following Sweden and experiencing the highest spikes in new cases: Arkansas
(60 percent), Nebraska (74), Iowa (82), and a whopping 205 percent in South
Dakota.

The Economist has made its first preliminary predictions about the economic
impact of the virus. The U.S. will have a 12.3-percent budget deficit for
2020, but countries on the Euro currency will be only 1.8 percent in the
hole. The U.S. and most of Europe will be in recession (predictions vary
about how deep), except for Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, which The
Economist predicts will grow at an average of 1.5 percent.

The rosiest projection for U.S. unemployment is 10.8 percent. It was 10
percent in 2009 at the beginning of the Great Recession, and Obama brought
it down to 4.6 percent.

Millions of Europeans will not lose their jobs because their governments
are paying employers 67-90 percent of their wages. The U.S. Paycheck
Protection Program had limited coverage, was delayed, and has now run out
of funds.

The principal reason that there will be less debt and fewer unemployed in
Europe is that these countries have already budgeted and paid for generous
sick leave, unemployment benefits, child care, child support, and family
leave.

In stark contrast, the U.S. is attempting to build an emergency welfare
state overnight for $2.2 trillion with $450 billion soon to come. This will
be messy and inefficient, and it will add trillions of dollars to the
national debt.

The Swedish government claims that its goal is not herd immunity, but this
exactly what it is. British health authorities attempted this initially,
but with a rapid rise in mortality (now 10.2 percent), they wisely chose
lockdown instead. Imperial College London estimated that 250,000 Brits
would lose their lives, and health authorities took note.

Courtney’s church denomination has now joined those who want to “liberate”
us. Does he really believe that it is worth the risk to his family, his
congregants, and the people of Moscow to defy Gov. Little’s and the Trump
administration’s guidelines?

Nick Gier is professor emeritus at the University of Idaho. Email him at
ngier006 at gmail.com.
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