[Vision2020] Filmmaker Michael Moore Predicted Trump Presidential Win July 2016

[Ted Moffett]

How did he get this right, and so many other political analysts got it
wrong?

Reading Moore's analysis from July 2016 regarding this prediction is rather
incredible!

Perhaps he should be granted an honorary degree in political science from
Harvard, or some other prestigious university.
---------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
---------------------------------
July 25, 2016, 08:19 am
Michael Moore: 5 reasons Trump will be president

by Rebecca Savronsky
*http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/donald-trump-michael-moore-hillary-clinton-prediction-victory-election-5-reasons-why
<http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/donald-trump-michael-moore-hillary-clinton-prediction-victory-election-5-reasons-why>*

Liberal filmmaker Michael Moore said he expects Donald Trump to be elected
president and listed five reasons why the GOP nominee will win in November.

"This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath
is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the
words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: 'PRESIDENT
TRUMP,'" he wrote on his website.
----------------------------------------------------
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win

by Michael Moore

Friends:

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last
summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee
for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you:
Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant,
dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next
president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be
saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly –
“No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble
that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are
convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for
president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him
because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic
stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen
to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the
world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will
continue the Obama legacy because *that is what the American people clearly
want! Yes! Four more years of this!*

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial
and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to
soothe yourself with the facts – *“77% of the electorate are women, people
of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of
them!”* – or logic – *“people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against
their own best interests!” *– is your brain’s way of trying to protect you
from trauma. Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think,
“oh, a tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?”
because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with a
gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness reports
on 9/11 said “a *small* plane *accidentally* flew into the World Trade
Center.” We want to – we* need to –* hope for the best because, frankly,
life is already a shit show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from
paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad news. So our mental
state goes to default when something scary is actually, truly happening.
The first people plowed down by the truck in Nice spent their final moments
on earth waving at the driver whom they thought had simply lost control of
his truck, trying to tell him that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they
shouted. “There are people on the sidewalk!”

Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe
Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic,
then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where
16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw
at Trump and *nothing* could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things
stand now, I believe this is going to happen – and in order to deal with
it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and then maybe, just maybe, we can
find a way out of the mess we’re in.

Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Things*
are* better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and lesbians can get
married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal position on just
about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay for women – check.
Abortion should be legal – check. Stronger environmental laws – check. More
gun control – check. Legalize marijuana – check. A huge shift has taken
place – just ask the socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no
doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on
their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the house and
get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic
neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is
being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most
elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies
the problem for November – who is going to have the most motivated, most
inspired voters show up to vote? You *know* the answer to this question.
Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are
going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the
way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Tom, Dick
and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and Billy Bob Joe)
has cast his ballot?  That’s right. That’s the high level of danger we’re
in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Hillary TV ads, or
outfacting him in the debates or Libertarians siphoning votes away from
Trump is going to stop his mojo.

---------------------------------------

http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:

   1.

   *Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit.  *I believe Trump is
   going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the
   rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and
   Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have
   elected a *Republican *governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now
   finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more
   Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the
   Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in
   Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. *Tied?* How can the race be this
   close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because
   he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy
   the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer
   Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have
   royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the
   shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened
   the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure
   of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any
   Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet
   music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in
   his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones
   in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump
   walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor
   next-door, John Kasich.

   From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England
   – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the
   countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class.
   Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the
   trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a
   good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a
   lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving
   the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here.
   Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson and just says whatever
   shit he can make up to convince the masses that *this is their chance!
   To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their American Dream! And now The
   Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to clean house! You don’t have to agree
   with him! You don’t even have to like him! He is your personal Molotov
   cocktail to throw right into the center of the bastards who did this to
   you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS YOUR MESSENGER!*

   And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64
   electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio,
   Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to
   carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from
   Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll *never *vote for Hillary Clinton), and
   then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He
   doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and
   Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen
   in November.
   2.

   *The Last Stand of the Angry White Man*. Our male-dominated, 240-year
   run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did
   this happen?! *On** our** watch!* There were warning signs, but we
   ignored them. Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule
   that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports.
   Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed
   on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black
   Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated!
   Oh, the humanity!

   That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male. There is
   a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of
   doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the
   “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or
   wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to
   endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to
   just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that
   it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders!
   You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted
   human rights and a fuckin’ hamster is going to be running the country. This
   has to stop!
   3.

   *The Hillary Problem. *Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And
   before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think
   she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq
   War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I
   haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist
   from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly
   believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action.
   She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on
   The Button, and that is that. Done and done.

   Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She
   is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy
   and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing
   in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights
   against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a
   gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to
   hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other
   women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never
   have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just
   shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a
   day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her.
   No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th
   excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama
   became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm
   just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just
   one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the
   polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.
   4.

   *The Depressed Sanders Vote. *Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters
   not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show
   that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of
   Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the
   problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average
   Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat
   reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” –
   meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t
   volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks
   in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed
   voter. Because, when you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and
   BS. Returning to the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to
   pay for music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass
   portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third
   party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do
   something to give them a reason to support her  — and picking a moderate,
   bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the
   kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to
   Hillary. Having two women on the ticket – that was an exciting idea. But
   then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one
   example of how she is killing the youth vote.
   5.

   *The Jesse Ventura Effect.* Finally, do not discount the electorate’s
   ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy
   themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all
   alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where
   there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids,
   no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as
   long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push
   the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse
   and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger
   that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to
   vote for Trump *not* because they agree with him, *not* because they
   like his bigotry or ego, but *just because they can. *Just because it
   will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way
   like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind
   wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot
   of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and
   plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember
   back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional
   wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or
   thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political
   intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the
   smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a
   dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good
   practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again
   with Trump.

Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican
Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he
said, “we *have
*to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was
enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just
that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers
and watch *that* reality show.

(Next week I will post my thoughts on Trump’s Achilles Heel and how I think
he can be beat.)

ALSO:
http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/michael-moores-5-reasons-why-trump-will-win

Yours,
Michael Moore
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20161110/25772913/attachment-0001.html>