[Vision2020] PNAS 2-22-16: Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise, Potential 4 ft., This Century

Ron Force ronforce at gmail.com
Sun Feb 28 14:41:33 PST 2016

When you list authorities who deny some aspect of climate science, you
should really look into their backgrounds before posting the list. While i
didn't go through the whole list, here's the first few:

Edward Wegman-- a statistician who presented a critical report on behalf of
a Republican House member. The report was withdrawn after it was found to
be plagiarized.

Richard Tol-- doesn't deny that climate change exists, just thinks that the
economic consequences won't be severe.

Christopher Landsea-- in agreement with climate change forecasts, but
doesn't believe that the severity of current hurricanes can be traced to
global warming.

Duncan Wingham--In the 1990s, Wingham was involved in a four-year satellite
study of the Antarctic ice sheet. His conclusion then, and from later
research, is that the Antarctic has contributed little to observed rising sea
levels <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_levels> in the 20th century.
However, he has also stated that "it is possible that the consequences
of global
warming <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming> on sea level rise
have been underestimated... Other sources of rise must be underestimated.
In particular it is possible that the effect of global warming on thermal
expansion [on the oceans] is larger than we thought" (Wikipedia)

Bob Carter (Robert i Carter) (deceased) Lost his position at Cook
University for failure to publish in peer-reviewed publications. Was on the
payroll of the Heartland Institute (Koch Brothers).

Vincent Gray--- Chief chemist (retired) for the New Zealand Coal Research
and on it goes.

Ron Force
Moscow Idaho USA

On Sat, Feb 27, 2016 at 1:35 PM, lfalen <lfalen at turbonet.com> wrote:

> There is climate change all the time, but how much is due to anthropogenic
> causes is debatable. Read the book The Deniers by Lawrence Solomon. He
> lists the following as questioning some aspects of the prevailing dogma -
> Dr. Edward Wegman, Dr.  Richard Toll, Dr. Christopher Landsea, Dr. Duncan
> Wingham, Dr. Robert lCarter, Dr. Richard Lindzen, Dr. Vincent Gray, Dr.
> Syun-I*chi Akasodu, Dr. Tom V. Segalstad,, Zbigniew Jaworoski, David
> Bromwich, Hendrik Tennekes, Freeman Dyson, Antonino Zichichi, Dr. Eigil
> Friis-Cristensen, Dr. Henrik Svensmark, Sami Solanki, Japer Kirby,
> Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. George Hukla, Rhodes Fairbridge, Dr. William
> Gray, Dr. Cliff Ollier, Paul Reiter. Some who formally embraced the
> anthropogenic aspect but now have doubts are Roger Revelle, Claude Allegre,
> Reid Bryson and David Bellamy. Ravelle is Al Gores mentor. There is climate
> change but the cause is not settled. This  dose not mean that we should not
> be concerned about air pollution and should be trying to improve that.*
> *Roger*
> -----Original Message-----
> Subject: [Vision2020] PNAS 2-22-16: Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of
> Sea Level Rise, Potential 4 ft., This Century
> From: "Ted Moffett" <starbliss at gmail.com>
> To: "Moscow Vision 2020" <vision2020 at moscow.com>
> Date: 02/26/16 04:41:48
> Article just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of
> Sciences is at second link below, with an article from Climate Central
> about this article lower down. The 4 ft. sea level rise
> potential by the end of this century is mentioned in the Climate Central
> article, based on a business as usual scenario, with the global economy
> continuing to be primarily fossil fuel powered. And for long term time
> scales, sea level rise from anthropogenic global warming could continue for
> centuries, as the first reference below indicates. Global warming has the
> potential to remain a major problem for many generations in the future:
> http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2013/07/sea-level-rise-over-next-2000-years/
> Sea level rise over the next 2000 years
> Posted on 17/07/2013
> <http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2013/07/sea-level-rise-over-next-2000-years/>
> by Bethan Davies <http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/author/bethan/>
> A new paper by Levermann et al. in PNAS
> <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/07/10/1219414110> uses the record
> of past rates of sea level rise from palaeo archives and numerical computer
> models to understand how much sea level rise we can expect per degree of
> warming in the future. These data suggest that we can expect a global sea
> level rise of 2.3 m per 1°C of warming within the next 2000 years: well
> within societal timeframes. A 2°C of warming would result in a global sea
> level rise of 4.8 m within 2000 years. This would inundate many coastal
> cities in Europe alone, and cause untold economic and societal damage.
> ------------------------------------------------------------
> "Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era"
> http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/02/17/1517056113
> ------------------------------------------------
> Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise
> http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-reveals-acceleration-of-sea-level-rise-20055
> Published: February 22nd, 2016
> By John Upton
> The oceans have heaved up and down as world temperatures have waxed and
> waned, but as new research tracking the past 2,800 years shows, never
> during that time did the seas rise as sharply or as suddenly as has been
> the case during the last century.
> The new study, the culmination of a decade of work by three teams of
> farflung scientists, has charted what they called an "acceleration" in sea
> level rise that's triggering and worsening flooding in coastlines around
> the world.
> The findings also warn of much worse to come.
> The scientists reported in a paper published Monday
> <http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1517056113> in Proceedings of
> the National Academy of Sciences that they have greater than 95 percent
> certainty that at least half of more than 5 inches of sea level rise they
> detected during the 20th century was directly caused by global warming.
> <http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2_22_16_John_CC_NuisanceFlooding_GlobalSLR_1050_718_s_c1_c_c.jpg>
> "During the past millennia, sea level has never risen nearly as fast as
> during the last century," said Stefan Rahmstorf
> <http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/>, a physics professor at Potsdam
> University in Germany, one of 10 authors of the paper. "That was to be
> expected, since global warming inevitably leads to rising seas."
> By trapping heat, rising concentrations of atmospheric pollution are
> causing glaciers and ice sheets to melt into seas, lifting high tides ever
> higher.
> Globally, average temperatures have risen about 1°C
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-world-is-halfway-to-2c-19663>
> (nearly 2°F) since the 1800s. Last year was the hottest recorded
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2015-hottest-year-2016-could-surpass-19929>,
> easily surpassing the mark set one year earlier
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/record-2014-hottest-year-18502>. The
> expansion of warming ocean water was blamed in a recent study
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/rapid-ocean-warming-making-floods-worse-19955>for
> about half of sea level rise during the past decade.
> Changes in sea level vary around the world and over time, because of the
> effects of ocean cycles, volcanic eruptions and other phenomenon. But the
> hastening pace of sea level rise is being caused by climate change.
> "The new sea level data confirm once again just how unusual the age of
> modern global warming, due to our greenhouse gas emissions, is," Rahmstorf
> said. "They also demonstrate that one of the most dangerous impacts of
> global warming, namely rising seas, is well underway."
> Were it not for the effects of global warming, the researchers concluded
> that sea levels might actually have fallen during the 20th century. At the
> very least, they would have risen far less than was actually the case.
> A report published by Climate Central on Monday, the result of an analysis
> based in part on the findings in Monday's paper, concluded that climate
> change was to blame for three quarters of the coastal floods recorded in
> the U.S. from 2005 to 2014, mostly high tide floods. That was up from less
> than half of floods in the 1950s.
> "I think this is really a first placing of human fingerprints on coastal
> floods, and thousands of them," said Ben Strauss
> <https://www.climatecentral.org/what-we-do/people/ben_strauss>, vice
> president for sea level and climate impacts at Climate Central. Strauss led
> the analysis, which also involved government and academic researchers.
> Governments and communities have been slow to respond to the crisis of
> rising seas, though efforts to adapt to the changes underway are now being
> planned around the world.
> "There's a definite recognition among people who weren't talking about sea
> level rise 5 years ago that it's something to be concerned about," said Laura
> Tam <http://www.spur.org/about/staff/laura-tam>, a policy director at
> SPUR, which is an urban planning think-tank based in San Francisco. "And
> something that needs to be planned for."
> A high-profile effort to track long-term changes in sea levels was based
> on analysis of sediment layers at a single location in North Carolina. Published
> in 2011 <http://www.pnas.org/content/108/27/11017.abstract>, that study
> produced a chart of sea levels that bounced up and down over time, changing
> with global temperatures, and then ticked sharply upward as
> industrialization triggered global warming.
> "North Carolina basically showed us that this could be done," said Andrew
> Kemp <http://eos.tufts.edu/people/kemp.htm>, a sea level scientist at
> Tuft's University. He was a co-author of both Monday's paper and the paper
> published in 2011.
> Monday's paper combined the data from North Carolina with similar analyses
> from 23 other locations around the world plus data from tide gauges.
> Rob DeConto <http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/deconto/Site/Home.html>, a
> professor at UMass Amherst who researches prehistoric climates, and who was
> not involved with the study, described the report as a "nice job" that
> "used a lot more data than anybody else has used in a study like this."
> RELATED The Human Fingerprints on Coastal Floods
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-human-fingerprints-on-coastal-floods-20050>
> Images Show Impact of Sea Level Rise on Global Icons
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/global-icons-at-risk-from-sea-level-rise-pictures-19633>
> What Does U.S. Look Like With 10 Feet of Sea Level Rise?
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-with-10-feet-of-sea-level-rise-17428>
> The analysis goes further than explaining historical sea level rise. It
> includes worrying projections for the future.
> By extending their findings to future scenarios, the scientists showed
> that the amount of land that could be inundated in the coming years will
> depend heavily on whether humanity succeeds in slashing pollution from fuel
> burning, deforestation and farming.
> The Paris Agreement negotiated in December
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/news/world-unites-delivers-hopeful-climate-deal-19808>
> aims to do just that, with nations agreeing to take voluntary steps to
> reduce the amount of pollution they release after 2020. It could take
> decades, though, before that untested approach is revealed to have been a
> success, a failure, or something in between.
> Even If humans quickly stop polluting the atmosphere, potentially keeping
> a global temperature rise to well below 2°C (3.8°F) compared with
> preindustrial times - a major goal of the Paris climate agreement - seas
> may still rise by an additional 9 inches to 2 feet this century, the study
> concluded. That would trigger serious flooding in some areas, and worsen it
> in others.
> Under the worst-case scenario investigated, if pollution continues
> unabated, and if seas respond to ongoing warming by rising at the fastest
> rates considered likely, sea levels could rise more than 4 feet this
> century alone, wiping out coastal infrastructure and driving communities
> inland.
> <http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2_22_16_John_CC_NuisanceFlooding_USFloodDays_decades_1050_718_s_c1_c_c.jpg>
> The problem would be made far worse if the Antarctic or Greenland ice
> sheets collapse - something that's difficult to forecast.
> Their projections for future sea level rise were similar to those published
> in 2013 <https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/> by scientists convened by
> the United Nations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
> Change's most recent assessment
> <http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/the-5-scariest-charts-from-the-ipcc-climate-report-16529>
> of climate science.
> They also closely matched projections that were coincidentally published
> in a separate paper <http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1500515113>
> in the same journal on Monday.
> The similarity of the other papers' projections "strengthens the
> confidence" in the findings, said Robert Kopp <http://www.bobkopp.net/>,
> a Rutgers University climate scientist who led the analysis.
> The convergence of the findings in Monday's papers was a "nice result,"
> said Matthias Mengel <http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mengel/>, a researcher
> at at Potsdam University who coauthored the other sea level rise study
> released Monday. He led a team of sea level scientists who took a different
> approach than Kopp's team to projecting future sea levels.
> Mengel's team projected future sea levels by combining the results of
> models that anticipate changes to icebergs, ice sheets and ocean expansion
> in the years ahead, and used those findings to predict sea levels.
> For years, different approaches to projecting future sea level rise have
> arrived at different results, but the gap has recently been closing, which
> Mengel described as "a really good sign for sea level science" - even if
> it's ominous news for humanity.
> ---------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
> ------------------------------
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